Christmas Storm V

[eyewall]

[beanskip]

A great indicator of the uncertainty we are facing is illustrated by comparing the 12z GGEM at 60h to the 0z RGEM at 48 hours.

[Stormsfury]

Verbatim, 00z GFS thumps Eastern NC

[FoothillsNC]

what happens at 48 is probably the deciding point . This northern vort could dig more, be a little east, west. Probably the closest call to a big system I've ever seen so close (other than Jan 2000 and wasn't paying attention then)

[eyewall]

Where is the Ukie updated? I so far have only found old runs.

[Carvers Gap]

Say what you will about this storm, but man that run of the 0z GFS is COLD! If that were to hold true, it's going to put some January forecasts at risk...

[Rankin5150]

what happens at 48 is probably the deciding point . This northern vort could dig more, be a little east, west. Probably the closest call to a big system I've ever seen so close (other than Jan 2000 and wasn't paying attention then)

You never know...it may still come to fruition (A big system plowing through the Carolinas) this weekend...

[BIG FROSTY]

Where is the Ukie updated? I so far have only found old runs.

Heard in the 0z thread it came way west, but still a little east of gfs

[FoothillsNC]

You never know...it may still come to fruition (A big system plowing through the Carolinas) this weekend...

it could. Most of our biggest and best snows came from within 72 hours I think. And were modeled to be minor. Forecasting snow and betting on it actually coming, in any amount really (as even last week's 30 minute burst proved) is hard around here. Its just extremely hard to predict with any confidence.

[BIG FROSTY]

what happens at 48 is probably the deciding point . This northern vort could dig more, be a little east, west. Probably the closest call to a big system I've ever seen so close (other than Jan 2000 and wasn't paying attention then)

DT throwed around Jan 2000 a few minutes ago, Of course I didn't get a flake

[eyewall]

Heard in the 0z thread it came way west, but still a little east of gfs

I found it. It is tough to tell from the graphics I am seeing. It is west but still still too far out to impact the coast with much in the way of precip. It is somewhat elongated as well. It is more like a hybrid of tonight's NAM and GFS. That is certainly an improvement over previous runs but not great by any stretch.

[BIG FROSTY]

I found it. It is tough to tell from the graphics I am seeing. It is west but still still too far out to impact the coast with much in the way of precip. It is somewhat elongated as well. It is more like a hybrid of tonight's NAM and GFS. That is certainly an improvement over previous runs but not great by any stretch.

They say it has a super surpressed bias also ?

[eyewall]

They say it has a super surpressed bias also ?

Honestly I am not as familiar with its bias. Perhaps someone here is better suited to comment on that?

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Canadian is east, way east of the GFS...FWIW. It is also moisture starved. Didn't look quite right in my opinion.

[BIG FROSTY]

Honestly I am not as familiar with its bias. Perhaps someone here is better suited to comment on that?

I know I'm out of the game (just hoping for some flurries) But I thank you are in a pretty good spot this time, You still have plenty of time for a good hit. I hope you get it too !

[weatherfide]

The 0z Canadian is east, way east of the GFS...FWIW. It is also moisture starved. Didn't look quite right in my opinion.

Remember the Canadian sent the upper low to Cuba last time, so don't sweat it.

[FoothillsNC]

DT throwed around Jan 2000 a few minutes ago, Of course I didn't get a flake

I got a lot of flakes. It snowed about all day, but didnt' stick. Temp stalled at 33 all day. Meanwhile 40 miles due east got 12".

[Pilotwx]

What if the EURO brings back our storm do you trust it or throw it out?

[BIG FROSTY]

2000 just makes me sick, just like I'm sure 96 makes some sick!

Yea me too ! We don't get notta again this time. Man I told alot of people we were going to have a white Christmas this year and I felt really good about couple days ago, But wow what one run can do to you. lol

[CoolBreeze]

I was in Raleigh for the Jan 2000 storm. At one point during the night it was snowing at 2-3 in/hr, and the flakes were so small, and filled the air so completely, that I wondered if there could be enough oxygen out there to breathe - truly! Of course, I had to go out and see if I could take a breath...

[WeatherNC]

I found it. It is tough to tell from the graphics I am seeing. It is west but still still too far out to impact the coast with much in the way of precip. It is somewhat elongated as well. It is more like a hybrid of tonight's NAM and GFS. That is certainly an improvement over previous runs but not great by any stretch.

Plymouth is your quickest update for the UK (0, 6, 12, & 18z) runs through 72 hrs

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

After that, Meteociel updates an hour later with the panels through 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0

e-wall is also a source, but slower than the two listed above

[BIG FROSTY]

What if the EURO brings back our storm do you trust it or throw it out?

I would trust it, Only because GFS has gotton so close to that solution now.

[Carvers Gap]

Remember the Canadian sent the upper low to Cuba last time, so don't sweat it.

I'm not sweating anything. I'm way out of the game w/ my location in terms of the Gulf low. Also, it's not wise to discount an entire model that probably(I've not seen it yet, but have heard...) has support from the UKMET. Though the UKMET trended west, it's still east of the GFS operational. Nonetheless, I think it has been well documented this evening that the complexities of this system are making the models waffle quite a bit.

[Jon]

What if the EURO brings back our storm do you trust it or throw it out?

I'd trust it...Euro showing what it did 6 runs in a row, then not for a couple of runs, then bringing it back on the 0z Friday...that's within 48hrs or so (depending on speed). I'd say if the Euro brings it back, GFS and NAM should trend tomorrow the same. Euro doesn't show up, towel time...although I don't believe trace-1" amounts for Central NC...

[BIG FROSTY]

I think the 0z euro is going to be real close to it's solution the other day (just a hunch) enough that it will get me hoping again. lol

[superjames1992]

I'm not trusting any damn model at this point. That said, my confidence will go up if the Euro shifts west.

[eyewall]

I know I'm out of the game (just hoping for some flurries) But I thank you are in a pretty good spot this time, You still have plenty of time for a good hit. I hope you get it too !

Thank you and yeah it could still happen to some degree here for sure. I haven't given up yet.

[Pilotwx]

I have told quite a few people also, I guess us weather weenies never learn! On to the next big storm as they say! I have a feeling that we are looking @ a 2000 situation.

Yea me too ! We don't get notta again this time. Man I told alot of people we were going to have a white Christmas this year and I felt really good about couple days ago, But wow what one run can do to you. lol

[POWERSTROKE]

It would have to bring it back to bury us to get me excited. We didn't even put all the plows on the trucks or load any salt up. We did that years ago and caught off guard, maybe that is what will happen this year as I am not expecting to work at all. Really thought this was going to be a huge event but as Big Frosty talked all week we both had serious doubt. Off to bed, maybe wake up to a surprise

[BIG FROSTY]

I'm not trusting any damn model at this point. That said, my confidence will go up if the Euro shifts west.

I have way less chance than you, But I have to admit I'm getting a little more interested again tonight. GFS real close, Can. looks alot closer even though it's still ots it did make a vast inprovement, Ukie come way west etc..... BUT if euro don't move west some tonight, I'm done with this one !