Christmas Storm V

[burgertime]

@42 it's south of the 12z run..low is sitting off the LA coast.

[FoothillsNC]

coming up on the deciding point I think At 42 the southern low is south of LA and the northern stream is about like the RGEM.

[burgertime]

@48 our low is getting all sheered out along the gulf

[phil882]

I cannot agree with this map as it literally ends the snow just before my house in Peachtree City, GA.

Please rethink this solution!

Haha well Atlanta, GA is right on the edge of accumulating in my opinion. We are lucky right now that this time of the year has some of the lowest solar angles. That should help out a lot of folks down south even during the daytime for snowfall chances. My hunch is that there might be a focused band of precipitation (sorta similar to what happened February last year in the deep south) that will form in the lee of the Appalachian mountains with an inverted trough. Already you can see how the 850mb heights are closing off by 54-60 hours... right along that axis there might be a precipitation maximum. Thats what the gfs seems to be keying on in the past few runs. It has a nice finger of moisture for central GA and SC... and thats where we could see some locations picking up 1-3" through this band before the coastal low gets going.

[FoothillsNC]

at 48 the flow is backing a little. GA and SC have had a little snow.

[burgertime]

@54 low is crossing the pan handle of FL.

[FoothillsNC]

Not turning out too good , but better and a little like the GFS was. At 54 its a elongated low off the SE coast and a closed 5H in Ohio Valley. Any subtle changes though still would give a big difference.

[beanskip]

Boy, that shows you the 850 RH maps are worthless -- looks like a huge dump for the Tenn Valley, but must be deceiving.

at 48 the flow is backing a little. GA and SC have had a little snow.

[WeatherNC]

Not turning out too good , but better and a little like the GFS was. At 54 its a elongated low off the SE coast and a closed 5H in Ohio Valley. Any subtle changes though still would give a big difference.

[Itunis]

Could we get a quick QPF rundown? I know this is a weenie post but hopefully it will prevent 10 more similar posts. Good to see the Euro isn't too horrible...

[burgertime]

Not turning out too good , but better and a little like the GFS was. At 54 its a elongated low off the SE coast and a closed 5H in Ohio Valley. Any subtle changes though still would give a big difference.

@60 it doesn't look to do anyone in the eastern sections any favors.

[burgertime]

Funny thing is verbatim QPF CLT might do really well this run, looked like a few tongues of moisture were sweeping through here.

[burgertime]

66 it's OTS.

[Rankin5150]

@54 low is crossing the pan handle of FL.

Thanks Burger! How does QPF look? Better than 0Z GFS? Worse?

Thanks

[weavervillewx]

Dunno if any of you have looked at NWS Nashville OHX they have issued winter storm WATCH since late this afternoon for 3-5 inches of snow for cumberland plateau and parts of northeast central tennessee. They are calling for 2-3 inches for nashville as well. 1-3 inches for the mountain of WNC with isolated 4-5 inches NEAR THE TN LINE and LESS amts toward CLT and columbia sc! if it moves further northward with the low pressure than possibly amts will be at least double as what right now. Im surprised that only part of tn is under a watch instead of more parts of the southeast.

[WeatherNC]

Could we get a quick QPF rundown? I know this is a weenie post but hopefully it will prevent 10 more similar posts. Good to see the Euro isn't too horrible...

decent snows central ga upstate sc hr54 0.25"

[eyewall]

How does it compare to the 0z GFS?

[burgertime]

Thanks Burger! How does QPF look? Better than 0Z GFS? Worse?

Thanks

Might be about the same all of NC would probably be less than .2, points south and east would be .25-.3....Robert might give better insight though.

[burgertime]

How does it compare to the 0z GFS?

To my untrained eye it looked a tad better than the GFS.

[eyewall]

To my untrained eye it looked a tad better than the GFS.

Ok thank you I am trying to do a quick forecast update before I get a little sleep.

[Itunis]

Thanks. I assume temps aren't an issue for most places if it's snowing in central GA...overall it sounds like the Euro is stringing us along for just a bit longer.

[FoothillsNC]

Boy, that shows you the 850 RH maps are worthless -- looks like a huge dump for the Tenn Valley, but must be deceiving.

Use the 7H for precip, 850 for upslopes. Well this run was a step better than its previous. And still the coast has teh best chance at a big snow. The 5H does close off at 60 and its a smidge too far east to do us inland folk any good but its close enough to keep on watching. I'm sure thats what we'll do until this event has started.

Precip is actually higher than I though it would be

.25" all of SC, southern NC and SW NC most of GA except around northern ATL and n. GA, where its a min.

Northern and eastern SC have .50" and eastern NC. NW and north Central NC have trace to .10" But i caution don't pay much attention to qpf numbers, In this setup , its about useless to look at that, because if a band were to develop nicely ahead of the gulf low and get thrown inland, you'd get trained on quickly. BTW, the 5H cuts off over western NC for a period and keeps flurries going a while. Looks like it gets to a 968 mb low in the Gulf of Maine.

My opinion: This storm could trend dramatically either way, based on the interaction of the streams and the timing. Its an open court really right now. I could easily see areas progged for .10" tonight get over 1" with a small 5H adjustment.

[Shawn]

.44 across CAE, not really sticking probably though. still a big qpf jump from .25 earlier.. gfs gave .52 to CAE also I believe. Night.

[BIG FROSTY]

Gives poor ole frosty 0.07

[tarheelwx]

To my untrained eye it looked a tad better than the GFS.

Since there will likely be a very sharp cutoff on the western side of the coastal, a "TAD" can make a HUGE difference. Here's to 4 "TADS" over the next 4 runs.

TW

[dsaur]

Thanks. I assume temps aren't an issue for most places if it's snowing in central GA...overall it sounds like the Euro is stringing us along for just a bit longer.

Well, except for the recent hiccups, it has been consistently putting some good snow down here on southside. It is that bit of consistency, plus the unusual blocking that has kept my hopes alive. T

[burgertime]

Use the 7H for precip, 850 for upslopes. Well this run was a step better than its previous. And still the coast has teh best chance at a big snow. The 5H does close off at 60 and its a smidge too far east to do us inland folk any good but its close enough to keep on watching. I'm sure thats what we'll do until this event has started.

Precip is actually higher than I though it would be

.25" all of SC, southern NC and SW NC most of GA except around northern ATL and n. GA, where its a min.

Northern and eastern SC have .50" and eastern NC. NW and north Central NC have trace to .10" But i caution don't pay much attention to qpf numbers, In this setup , its about useless to look at that, because if a band were to develop nicely ahead of the gulf low and get thrown inland, you'd get trained on quickly. BTW, the 5H cuts off over western NC for a period and keeps flurries going a while. Looks like it gets to a 968 mb low in the Gulf of Maine.

My opinion: This storm could trend dramatically either way, based on the interaction of the streams and the timing. Its an open court really right now. I could easily see areas progged for .10" tonight get over 1" with a small 5H adjustment.

Delete this post if you must but we need to get something from this storm for it to keep us holding on. I knew it would end up coming right down to the wire. Good luck folks and thanks for the disco Robert, my GF is not going to be pleased that I will still be in storm mode tomorrow.

[DopplerWx]

So overall this sounds like a decent run and its once again a step in the right direction. Was it closer than 12z was? Temp issues in the eastern carolinas?

[WeatherNC]

Thank you for the EC updates Foothills and Burger! Good night, need to get some rest, as that will likely be lacking over the next couple days.

National Mosaic Valid 1:08 am EST 12/24

[Stormsfury]

So overall this sounds like a decent run and its once again a step in the right direction. Was it closer than 12z was? Temp issues in the eastern carolinas?

I don't think temperatures would be an issue. at 72hours, EC closes off a 500mb low in Eastern NC 527dm and is SW of the main surface low. this is a thread the needle situation but 850mb temperatures stay below 0z through most if not all of SC the entire storm.