Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Man, this place got quiet! I hope everyone is getting some rest before we come down the home stretch. So last night, we had the 0Z Nam rip us a new one with a fast, weak, STJ s/w, the 0Z GFS take a step in the right direction, the 0Z Canadian suppress itself, the 0Z Ukmet come back to the coast a bit, the 0Z Euro back away from the apocalyptic scenario, the 6Z Nam move back toward a stronger, slower STJ s/w, only to nose-dive it in the Gulf, and the 6Z GFS look a bit better than the 0Z run. That about right? Well, good morning folks. New day, new thread. Let's see if the models today can ingest some good data and come up with some reasonable solutions (between armaggedon and nothing). Lot's of potential still on the table. We need some good mojo, so bring everything you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OO gfs @72 06gfs @72 More moisture to work with on the 06 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep. We just need the phase a little quicker for the biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like it phases earlier too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bothered by that 0C line. It's been consistently down by the coast the whole time, now it's quite a way NW of the low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Put up my new discussion and video this morning.....on the blog, linked below. The 0z Euro is really very similar to the previous 12z run. The key difference is really with the northern branch system. Instead of a consolidated piece of energy diving down into the southern branch system, you have a couple of different pieces.....one diving toward the southern branch system, and another in the Ohio Valley. This causes the phase to occur a bit later, greatly reducing the precip totals for the I-85 corridor. This is a very minute detail, but that is why it is 'threading the needle.' With that said, the 6z GFS was at least a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Had some moderate flurries this AM around 4:30. I am kinda excited to see what the models are gonna do over the next 36 hrs. I relize there is alot of dissapointment this morning but no one relly knows what's gonna happen yet. Still some time for changes and some people are gonna have a white x-mas in the Southeast! Grab your favorite beverage & watch the event unfold. (pep talk over) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Our friend The Low, is currently sitting over SE Utah at 1012mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey. I still feel this is going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks Matt. After reading the Euro disco from last night you statement of 'threading the needle" continued to roll through my head. Also the fact that the gfs is coming in a little wetter is nice. Do you agree with the current HPC thinking for the 3 day snowfall, form were we stand right now. Thanks man!! Put up my new discussion and video this morning.....on the blog, linked below. The 0z Euro is really very similar to the previous 12z run. The key difference is really with the northern branch system. Instead of a consolidated piece of energy diving down into the southern branch system, you have a couple of different pieces.....one diving toward the southern branch system, and another in the Ohio Valley. This causes the phase to occur a bit later, greatly reducing the precip totals for the I-85 corridor. This is a very minute detail, but that is why it is 'threading the needle.' With that said, the 6z GFS was at least a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dang, go to bed last night looking good for 12 inches+ and wake up this morning looking like very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, it is all a timing thing with the phasing. 6-12 hours later....a lot of unhappy folks. 6-12 hours earlier...a lot of very happy folks. I don't have any big problems with that map. I am a bit surprised by the strip of higher probabilities (and low probability of 8"+) in there....I think they are relying on a lot of bias correction, which could be a good call. Thanks Matt. After reading the Euro disco from last night you statement of 'threading the needle" continued to roll through my head. Also the fact that the gfs is coming in a little wetter is nice. Do you agree with the current HPC thinking for the 3 day snowfall, form were we stand right now. Thanks man!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am reminded this morning why the NWS Office do not get on the snow train and ride it off the cliff. I am also reminded that sometime yesterday morning, someone posted that it was about time for the models to lose the storm just to have it ride back in in the last 36-48 hours. Let's hope this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog_10_2002 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Dang, go to bed last night looking good for 12 inches+ and wake up this morning looking like very little. I don't know why everyone would be upset. Every player is still on the field this late in the game. The potential is still present for this thing to be big, however it is all about the timing. We aren't going to know much until the morning of the event. The only thing we can do now is look for a consensus from the models on the low track, and then monitor the phasing as it occurs later in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for talking us off the ledge, Matt! I would be interested in your thoughts on the 6z NAM. When I looked at the 500mb maps, I though "wow, much better" .... but it really didn't translate to the surface .... Yeah, it is all a timing thing with the phasing. 6-12 hours later....a lot of unhappy folks. 6-12 hours earlier...a lot of very happy folks. I don't have any big problems with that map. I am a bit surprised by the strip of higher probabilities (and low probability of 8"+) in there....I think they are relying on a lot of bias correction, which could be a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yep, not worried yet, too many things can happen. If things can trend toward the worse, they can also trend for the better. I'm going to track the location of the low as frequently as possible on this map, starting this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Awesome work man. Between your maps, radar and AFD info. Good freaking job. Here is the current surface map that I have. Anyone have a good link to the active surface map Yep, not worried yet, too many things can happen. If things can trend toward the worse, they can also trend for the better. I'm going to track the location of the low as frequently as possible on this map, starting this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, the 6z NAM was kind of like some other modeling with elongating and stringing out the northern branch energy....instead of the consolidated piece of energy diving into the southern system. So, the phasing is resisted by the rather tight, compact southern system. But, it too seemed to be better than its previous run. I think 12z will be interesting....don't know how well at least the southern energy was sampled by the 0z runs. Thanks for talking us off the ledge, Matt! I would be interested in your thoughts on the 6z NAM. When I looked at the 500mb maps, I though "wow, much better" .... but it really didn't translate to the surface .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks for talking us off the ledge, Matt! I would be interested in your thoughts on the 6z NAM. When I looked at the 500mb maps, I though "wow, much better" .... but it really didn't translate to the surface .... It's the same problem with the 0z Euro. The northern jet is overly consolidated and doesn't sharpen up enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Strange weather here already. 21 this morning vs. 36 yesterday. Just wanted to thank you pro guys for everything ya'll do. There ought to be a "test" for all us "lookers" when all of this is over. You're truly excellent teachers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlabamaStormTrackers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think you might be on to something there. He's definitely on to something. The southern branch energy was annihilated by the northern stream on last evenings runs. We all know that is a bias. Couple that with a large data hole where our southern stream wave was and you most likely will have some issues with modeling. I really believe that we may see a better 12z run with a stronger southern stream. Hopefully things will phase up just a bit earlier and dump the load on a good chunk of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 12z NAM is running, can someone do pbp or is everyone asleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 He's definitely on to something. The southern branch energy was annihilated by the northern stream on last evenings runs. We all know that is a bias. Couple that with a large data hole where our southern stream wave was and you most likely will have some issues with modeling. I really believe that we may see a better 12z run with a stronger southern stream. Hopefully things will phase up just a bit earlier and dump the load on a good chunk of the SE. Either way, 12z should offer clarity and consensus, I hope. It's time to show the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlabamaStormTrackers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 12z analyzed map from the soundings looks like the 06hr map on the NAM....strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Fixing to head out shopping the day away here it is at 9hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlabamaStormTrackers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 06hr....pretty strong wave open just south of the four corners.....northern stream wave just north of MN. Both look fairly stout . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlabamaStormTrackers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 S/w swinging positive tilt toward west TX at 15 hr. Lots of vort still consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks stronger and little sw at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlabamaStormTrackers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18hr.....northern stream wave diving through E ND and the southern stream looks to be trying to close off as it enters far west TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 18 hours, the southern system is more compact and a little stronger than 6z. Also has the look that it wants to dig a little more southward in future frames, but predicting models is not my strong suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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