eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Mark, Good morning! It is great to be off work eh? Well deserved for ya bro. Anyway, I mentioned last night about a def zone setting up and I noticed that you posted the FD from GSP and they mention that. I am sure glad I have my expectations low on this. However, I think quite a few people will be surprised at the end result. I sure hope this snookers you and Robert! Ahyway, things are looking encouraging. We need to get our soundings specialist QC to look at our areas! Heck...I always leave that up him. Unfortunately I would be right on the line for p-type issues with these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 51....Vort quite strong diving SE in the Ozarks. Phase might be too late if at all... Yea looks like our phase was too late, but it might end up better then the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM may be saying how about a nice box of fail for Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @57 our low is all strung out off the coast of La, light qpf is over SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Comparing the 12z Euro (a good run) to the latest NAM at 54 hours, the Rockies ridging is very similar on both. But the southern dist is a little farther S on the NAM, and the northern dist is more like a vort max on the Euro and more like a vort filled trough on the NAM....phasing is more difficult. Matt -- trying to learn... tell me if I'm off base. One thing I see here I don't like is that there appears to be less ridging in the west. Overall the trough looks less amplified -- not good for us in WNC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think the models are having trouble picking up on which piece of energy to choose for the main LOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looking at the last 4 runs 0z is nothing like the other 18, 6 or 12 up to this point. hopefully we can throw it out and the euro will bring us a surprise in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Comparing the 12z Euro (a good run) to the latest NAM at 54 hours, the Rockies ridging is very similar on both. But the southern dist is a little farther S on the NAM, and the northern dist is more like a vort max on the Euro and more like a vort filled trough on the NAM....phasing is more difficult. is that bad for north GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OK, so I should be rooting for a) A more consolidated northern shortwave (but not too strong, lest it devour the southern stream disturbance) b- Not to far south of a track by the southern shortwave (but not too far north either, lest it get absorbed into the northern stream) RIght? Comparing the 12z Euro (a good run) to the latest NAM at 54 hours, the Rockies ridging is very similar on both. But the southern dist is a little farther S on the NAM, and the northern dist is more like a vort max on the Euro and more like a vort filled trough on the NAM....phasing is more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looking at 60 hour, I def think this will phase around N FL....but prob late in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like the nam just brings a cold front thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Right....and the big key is of course phasing happening at the right time.....we don't need phasing in the Plains, and we don't need phasing when it is too far along. OK, so I should be rooting for a) A more consolidated northern shortwave (but not too strong, lest it devour the southern stream disturbance) b- Not to far south of a track by the southern shortwave (but not too far north either, lest it get absorbed into the northern stream) RIght? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NE-Charlotte Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hell, we've had so many different potential interactions between the two shortwaves, I'm not even sure what I'm rooting for any more??!?! Somebody give me a team to pull for! this is hilarious . i feel the exact same way! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Right....and the big key is of course phasing happening at the right time.....we don't need phasing in the Plains, and we don't need phasing when it is too far along. Looks litke the northern stream is too strong, and just pushing our southern wave south? Looks like its gonna phase way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @66 our low is a little more NE of the 6z, it was late to phase...however this could be baby step in the right direction compared to this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Southern dist gets squashed and fades away at 66. 12z NAM gives no decent precip to areas along and N/W of I-85. NAM= FAIL for western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not really much positive in this run. I think what is happening is there is a disturbance in Iowa (seen at 30 hours) that is holding back northern stream energy. This prevents the phase and then by the time the southern stream wave is close enough it just gets sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 :gun_bandana: Nam just crushes it. LA NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 is that bad for north GA? One more post like this in this thread and you're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not really much positive in this run. I think what is happening is there is a disturbance in Iowa (seen at 30 hours) that is holding back northern stream energy. This prevents the phase and then by the time the southern stream wave is close enough it just gets sheared out. Still seems better than 00z where there is some type of dance of death around Texas and the southern s/w is gone. Now at least we have a southern s/w, it's just having trouble hooking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 For Atlanta: Christmas Day, cloudy, cool 39 to 46, with light rain. Possible flurries after 4pm. per the NAM. No phase and northern stream is very dominant. This is basically a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So what exactly does it show as far as the snow? Maybe .10 qpf for your area...it might be a little less than that. Another words a Trace to and inch of snow if your lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If the NAM ends up being right, and the northern energy squashes our sw, we will have to start watching out for a bias in the euro that over strengthens the southern branch in the long range during a La nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, what a difference a day makes! Looking at the GFS and NAM it seems like it's just a frontal passage. What happened to the LOWs that used to bowling ball from west to east with precip a plenty? Why doesn't the low tap into the gulf moisture and send it north? Does it have to phase to do that? Sorry too many questions. I guess the TV mets knew something we didn't last night. I heard "one or two inches" and thought WOW are they underdoing it. Confidence has taken a dive this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I take it back, this was a horrible run...maybe even the worst one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 where did you get forecast from? doesnt seem accurate to me... That's just my opinion, as week as it is, about the output from the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, what a difference a day makes! Looking at the GFS and NAM it seems like it's just a frontal passage. What happened to the LOWs that used to bowling ball from west to east with precip a plenty? Why doesn't the low tap into the gulf moisture and send it north? Does it have to phase to do that? Sorry too many questions. I guess the TV mets knew something we didn't last night. I heard "one or two inches" and thought WOW are they underdoing it. Confidence has taken a dive this morning. The GFS has a storm. Check the last two runs. It just phases it too late. The nam crushes the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, what a difference a day makes! Looking at the GFS and NAM it seems like it's just a frontal passage. What happened to the LOWs that used to bowling ball from west to east with precip a plenty? Why doesn't the low tap into the gulf moisture and send it north? Does it have to phase to do that? Sorry too many questions. I guess the TV mets knew something we didn't last night. I heard "one or two inches" and thought WOW are they underdoing it. Confidence has taken a dive this morning. Actually, I think confidence is increasing that the two streams are not going to phase, and yes, you need a phase to get moisture transport from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I take it back, this was a horrible run...maybe even the worst one yet. I don't burger, it goes OTS and doesn't hit the MA or NE. That is one good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hard to pull any positive out of that run on this side of I-85..... I take it back, this was a horrible run...maybe even the worst one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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