Christmas Storm V

[tgarren]

I didn't say it did. What I'm saying, as shown in the quote, that there was a ten fold difference in what it did and what it didn't do...my point was, as everyone in this forum knows, that the models are having a hard time with the idea of phasing and timing, and even the strength of the low as it makes it's way from Az. Models are starting to show a lesser solution, and everyone is freakin out. I still think we have a chance here, this is guidance, not truth. The 2000 storm is not analogous (to me) if that's what you thought I was saying.

i was asking if that was the case. i dont know anymore about it than whats on the RAH past events page. that storm was prior to my model tracking days.

[eyewall]

Ok I posted my morning update:

http://www.sandhillswx.com

[tnweathernut]

Several things will likely be learned here, if the storm doesn't happen. It certainly is looking less and less likely, and most (even in the Carolinas) are running out ot time.

1. It's almost impossible in a LaNina to get a KU. If this upper air look can't produce it, what can?

2. No model is flawless, even if that model is the Euro and has given 5 to 6 consistent solutions under a week out.

3. The UKmet really is a good model to look at, as it was giving us the suppressed solution several days ago, and I think it was first to show it.

These are just a few of my opinions, and I know this can go back toward a storm for someone near the coast, but not much of a chance here in the southern apps.

If I have to eat crow, I'd love to do that. Just being realistic and pointing out some of my feelings after riding a roller coaster for the last several days.

[Itunis]

While it's depressing to see the king Euro move away from a big storm, mets and knowledgeable posters have been saying all along that we had to get timing and intensity just right to get that solution. Change it by a hair (like we see on the 0Z Euro) and it's a light event. Here in GA we're looking at a 1-3" event versus nothing/flurries. FFC might now be too aggressive with their call for 2-4" for the mountains

[burgertime]

Ok I posted my morning update:

http://www.sandhillswx.com

I'm content with this map. Still a long ways to go people no need to throw in the towel yet.

[eyewall]

I'm content with this map. Still a long ways to go people no need to throw in the towel yet.

Yeah emotionally I would be cliff diving but I am not scientifically just yet.

[ams30721us]

While it's depressing to see the king Euro move away from a big storm, mets and knowledgeable posters have been saying all along that we had to get timing and intensity just right to get that solution. Change it by a hair (like we see on the 0Z Euro) and it's a light event. Here in GA we're looking at a 1-3" event versus nothing/flurries. FFC might now be too aggressive with their call for 2-4" for the mountains

I see no reason yet for them to go away from that..

[FoothillsNC]

While it's depressing to see the king Euro move away from a big storm, mets and knowledgeable posters have been saying all along that we had to get timing and intensity just right to get that solution. Change it by a hair (like we see on the 0Z Euro) and it's a light event. Here in GA we're looking at a 1-3" event versus nothing/flurries. FFC might now be too aggressive with their call for 2-4" for the mountains

exactly. Right now it doesn't look good for n. Ga or the western Carolinas. For this area it was an all or nothing most likely, so you can't look at the ensemble mean and get any accuracy for this area probably because if the phasing doesnt' occur, what happens is the westerly winds come in early and we're left with a cold front passing through dry (or with flurries). Meanwhile the surface low in the Fl. panhandle won't be able to get any moisture up here this far north and west, it would be more as you go east of here though, places like central and southern Ga and the eastern half of the Carolinas would have the most moisture, but not a huge event there without the phasing further west either. But theres a possibility the models may not catch the phasing or interacting right at all, and it could come down to the last minute since its so close. There's probably always the chance the low in the Gulf begins to develop pretty strongly and then move up the coast and get areas further west with a rapidly developing snowstorm, similar to 2000, but the odds are probably against that since the models are a little far east with the 5H deep long wave position, but its still worth mentioning since its a legit possibility, and would have a huge impact on actual weather. For my area and the western Carolinas and n Ga, we're probably running out of time with this, but perhaps the Euro today will have a better look to it. Its extremely hard to get snow in this region without a southern system thats able to pull moisture far north, like overrunning on southwest winds. I would actually prefer to have had no northern stream interaction on this one, which would have allowed the southern stream to just roll to our immediate south nicely and havea good precip event, even though for many it would have been a cold rain.

[GaffneyPeach]

I'm not even on

I'm content with this map. Still a long ways to go people no need to throw in the towel yet.

So, yeah....It's Christmas, snow was just going to make it more fun.

[dsaur]

While it's depressing to see the king Euro move away from a big storm, mets and knowledgeable posters have been saying all along that we had to get timing and intensity just right to get that solution. Change it by a hair (like we see on the 0Z Euro) and it's a light event. Here in GA we're looking at a 1-3" event versus nothing/flurries. FFC might now be too aggressive with their call for 2-4" for the mountains

To me the placement of the low has been paramount. While everyone is concerned with the northern stream, to me, down here, it is all about the low and where it is. I always dance on the razors edge, so having a low in the gulf is enough for now. At least I'll get my cold rain, and, who knows, it might be sleet. I just don't want to see that energy coming north... if I get good placement..then I'll take my chances. Tony

[Itunis]

I see no reason yet for them to go away from that..

2-4" for the mountains you mean? From what it sounds like the Euro was very lacking in moisture in far N GA, and the GFS shows generally <.25" QPF for the region. Do you think the models aren't handling the amount of moisture correctly?

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I can't believe with all this dissecting and discussion, the TV mets around here had it right for the last two days. I kept hearing a "postcard" event, "minor burst", dusting, 1-2 inches the last two days. I thought they were crazy with what the EURO was continuing to show and how the GFS was trending. Seems like they're not so bad afterall. I guess I need to start listening.

As a TV met I find this pretty funny. Yes, we look at all of the models and also look at what the NWS says, but it has been my experience that the models really don't have a clue what's going to happen with phasing and timing (and sometimes intensity) of these Gulf lows. With such an unusual winter, we have to tend towards climo, until we see a BIG sign that says otherwise. The Euro being great and showing consistency for 6 straight runs, although impressive, it was an outlier. Just as the NWS, we can't afford to start 'honking the horn' to the public, and we bust. How does that make us look? It's been great being on here and learning a lot, since I just graduated a about 6 months ago, so I don't have a TON of experience with all of these previous years and how they look. To be honest, we HAVE to be conservative to save our own reputation to the public. Although, if all the models are in agreement a few days out with numerous runs to support this then yes we will say "IT'S GOING TO SNOW LIKE CRAZY!" But with really only one model showing a snowstorm, that is not nearly enough to falsely alarm the public.

Though I will say. I hope we get to see a widespread snow event across the southeast to make everyone's Christmas a great one!

[ams30721us]

2-4" for the mountains you mean? From what it sounds like the Euro was very lacking in moisture in far N GA, and the GFS shows generally <.25" QPF for the region. Do you think the models aren't handling the amount of moisture correctly?

Yes I do. Of course it goes without saying thats what I say for N. GA every system and yet thats always the case...But my main point here is there are way to many questions still on the nrn stream energy and how it is being shown on the models right now. Each model is either to fast, to slow, sending it in different pieces or just missing the phase. AKA this small difference it what seperates this from being a 1-3 or probably a 2-4 or a little higher. Obviously NWS FFC chose to go with the 1-3 choice which i think works. Keep in mind the Nrn stream energy is going to bring its on light snow to Nrn Ala and Nrn GA and Tenn so this feature in itself normally in a clipper type system setup drops a 1-3 swath the key was the phase getting more gulf moisture involved providing a bigger system. This particular run of the GFS was <.25 of an inch yet the 00z was .25-.50 which shows you QPF will continue to flip flop but I would feel fine with a 1-3 forecast. If later suggestions show a phase coming back etc. then you could look at the higher totals if it doesnt I think 1-3 is still possible with obbiously the 2-3 more in extreme N GA and NE GA.

[burgertime]

Didn't see it posted here but over in the main model discussion a met said the GEM looked horrible.

[Shep1478]

As a TV met I find this pretty funny. Yes, we look at all of the models and also look at what the NWS says, but it has been my experience that the models really don't have a clue what's going to happen with phasing and timing (and sometimes intensity) of these Gulf lows. With such an unusual winter, we have to tend towards climo, until we see a BIG sign that says otherwise. The Euro being great and showing consistency for 6 straight runs, although impressive, it was an outlier. Just as the NWS, we can't afford to start 'honking the horn' to the public, and we bust. How does that make us look? It's been great being on here and learning a lot, since I just graduated a about 6 months ago, so I don't have a TON of experience with all of these previous years and how they look. To be honest, we HAVE to be conservative to save our own reputation to the public. Although, if all the models are in agreement a few days out with numerous runs to support this then yes we will say "IT'S GOING TO SNOW LIKE CRAZY!" But with really only one model showing a snowstorm, that is not nearly enough to falsely alarm the public.

Though I will say. I hope we get to see a widespread snow event across the southeast to make everyone's Christmas a great one!

[WeatherNC]

Canadian through 72 hrs is a complete miss for everyone, taking our southern stream packet to CUBA!

[Shawn]

The Cuba guidance actually... enthuses me on this situation. I remember the last time the storm wanted to go to Cuba.

[WeatherNC]

I expect the 12z Euro to follow suit, if it does not I would have to consider it an outlier given the other support for a lack of interaction between the streams, and a very weak OTS solution that screws everyone, including ENC.

[burgertime]

Canadian through 72 hrs is a complete miss for everyone, taking our southern stream packet to CUBA!

That seems more like it. Jesus, this is reminding me of last week. Gonna come right down to the freaking wire again, hopefully the Euro at least somewhat sticks to it's guns.

[Itunis]

The Cuba guidance actually... enthuses me on this situation. I remember the last time the storm wanted to go to Cuba.

That was the GFS at like 5 days...now that we're within 3 days we don't have a whole lot of time for the models to flip back to a favorable solution.

[WeatherNC]

12z GFS ens mean (so your saying there's a chance ---> slim one!)

[Weather Czar]

Last year we had a strong southern jet. This year we have a strong northern jet. I agree with robert. If this would have been just a southern wave then we could have had a nice little event. Now it's just getting crushed and shoved south.

[Shawn]

That was the GFS at like 5 days...now that we're within 3 days we don't have a whole lot of time for the models to flip back to a favorable solution.

Well, at least it will be nice and sunny on Christmas if it happens! There's so many factors involved with the evolution of this storm that my head wants to spin off. I want to see the new Euro here soon, and if it holds to it's last solution or goes worse then I'll just come back and look at the system Friday night.

[rduwx]

This is amazing...We started with this low tracking to the north of NC and now we have it going to Cuba. To me that's hilarious.

[GaWx]

The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned.

[DopplerWx]

12z GFS ens mean (so your saying there's a chance ---> slim one!)

Can you post the hr 66 panel for the ensemble mean?

[Itunis]

The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned.

Because it screws most of us and very few people posting here live right on the coast. I'm pulling for this to verify though if we can't get any up here!

[DopplerWx]

The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned.

Do the eastern carolinas get in on the action per the ukie?

[kanc2001]

The 0Z Ukie implies a rare coastal SE significant snow. I didn't see it mentioned.

Ukie wants an '89 redux?? do tell

ukie has been pretty darn consistent on the suppression scenerio

[Hugo]

Because it screws most of us and very few people posting here live right on the coast. I'm pulling for this to verify though if we can't get any up here!

Actually, there are a good number of members along and east of 95. So any updates are appreciated.