burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Huge turn to the south @42...now it's falling more in line with the 00z...it also looks a tad weaker then 00z though a bit more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @48 our low is at the southwest tip of LA...let's see where she goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Per main thread again "hr 36 closed h5 low just west of dallas a little further east than 0z...lgt precip from central wis to tx...with hvr precip in eastern tx and ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @48 our low is at the southwest tip of LA...let's see where she goes from here. I'm going to quote you and post images accordingly... @48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @54 looks to be moving due east...doesn't look quite as healthy as the 00z but I'll let a professional chime in on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Main thread.. "hr 42 closed h5 low over eastern tx...northern stream starting to drop south lgt precip from southern wis south...some lgt to mod precip over southern indiana and ill, western ky and ten, ark...mod precip over tx" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I can see differences in the West and Pacific- the key are ridge and trough out there- the ridge is weaker, the EPAC trough more progressive. The fat lady is warming up....... Dare I say: STORM CANCEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @60 our low is at the panhandle of Fl....it's looking a little sheared out. This is another really close run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It also looks like it's moving faster than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @66 it's getting sheered out and not turning the corner fast enough...@72 it's a swing and a miss wide right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How are the qpf totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 How are the qpf totals? Meh, CLT might get lucky and fall under a good pocket verbatim, a tongue sets up just south of Rock Hill up to CLT. Everyone else is just blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Wow, screw the euro for showing anything forth a dang 6 runs in a row. Models are a joke and shouldn't even be used anymore. Models were prob better 20 years ago, what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At 72hrs 1000mb low due east of Myrtle Beach and due south of Hatteras moving out to sea. It still seems to me that the ridge axis over the Rockies is just a little too far east to allow this thing to phase early enough. As we are getting closer to the event it seems the models are starting to fall into a consensus of a low tracking further out to sea with the heavier precip remaining near the coast. Could it trend a little back to the west? Sure sometimes these southern stream systems are more resilient than the models give them credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CAE would be snow but the surface temps are above freezing the whole time. CHS may change over but also, surface above. CLT's surface is also above during the event so basically.. pretty falling.. no sticky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 People, people, before this thread turns into a disaster it's not 100% over, not looking good but it's close and lots of things have to happen. Models are not perfect and neither are people. Bashing a model simply because it doesn't give you what you want is silly. If the QPF over performs we might still get a good snow out of this so just chill out. It's a bummer the Euro is falling more in line with the GFS but for folks in the Carolinas it's not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I somehow scratch out .2 on the euro...seems to be the high water mark for the Western part of the state as I continue to look around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This would be a 2-4" storm for some, maybe an inch here if I am lucky, The winner on this run is eastern NC. These is also a flurry/snsh threat afterward but no biggy. Want to get good totals- go up the mountains/usual upslope areas. Stick a fork in the big storm for everyone. Mass weenie cliff diving commence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Where does the freezing line set up on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 People, people, before this thread turns into a disaster it's not 100% over, not looking good but it's close and lots of things have to happen. Models are not perfect and neither are people. Bashing a model simply because it doesn't give you what you want is silly. If the QPF over performs we might still get a good snow out of this so just chill out. It's a bummer the Euro is falling more in line with the GFS but for folks in the Carolinas it's not over. Hey Burger, mind telling me some QPF for central NC from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I somehow scratch out .2 on the euro...seems to be the high water mark for the Western part of the state as I continue to look around. Look at Rock Hill or a little south of that, looked to be under a good band for 6 hours or so......so it's come to this? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This would be a 2-4" storm for some, maybe an inch here if I am lucky, The winner on this run is eastern NC. These is also a flurry/snsh threat afterward but no biggy. Want to get good totals- go up the mountains/usual upslope areas. Stick a fork in the big storm for everyone. Mass weenie cliff diving commence.... Even ATL is above freezing at the surface. Lame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hey Burger, mind telling me some QPF for central NC from the Euro? Most of Central NC will be lucky to hit .2 or .25...the moisture never really makes it past the Eastern corridor and just stays under the .10 mark for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Where does the freezing line set up on the euro? It doesn't matter really. I was looking at the raw numbers. You may see it change over to snow, but it's too warm to stick by this data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Look at Rock Hill or a little south of that, looked to be under a good band for 6 hours or so......so it's come to this? Lol. UZA does get .24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 IT is more the speed for us in the SE Man.. I assume the qpf to the west of you and QC goes down fast.. Look at Rock Hill or a little south of that, looked to be under a good band for 6 hours or so......so it's come to this? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Most of Central NC will be lucky to hit .2 or .25...the moisture never really makes it past the Eastern corridor and just stays under the .10 mark for the duration. Well awright then, what about us po chickens out here in the eastern corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Most of Central NC will be lucky to hit .2 or .25...the moisture never really makes it past the Eastern corridor and just stays under the .10 mark for the duration. That's still 2 inches of snow on Christmas, though, What's wrong ith that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this played out like my discussion 2 pages back. The first northern wave isn't consolidated or sharp enough to pick up the Texas low, so it weakens the Texas ULL as it approaches western Louisiana. Meanwhile, the westerly and colder winds sweep into the Southeastern Upper sections with a light band of very light snow. Then, the 2nd piece of energy or strung out 3rd and 4th pieces I should say, continue to dig south and maybe westward, but by then its about too late, becuase the Gulf wave is considerably sheared , but whats left of it could begin redeveloping and develop a little bit of a southeast coastal and thats the one that could clip eastern Carolinas. So, there's probably not goin to be the QPF over most of Tenn, and especially northeast GA and western Carolinas thats shown on the ECMWF if this is how it plays out. It isn't much shown anyway, less than .25" for most arond here, but that would realistically be passing flurries as the northern stream just brings in moisture from the west, which always dies out east of the mountains in this flow. Could literally be partly cloudy, flurries in the mountains. The best chance in this setup is north of the Gulf low, around central Alabama and central GA to eastern Half of the Carolinas. Coastal NC could get clipped very nicely if it develops strongly and quickly. But, all this could fail miserably if the handling of either stream is not exactly , precisely right. And if thats the case, a huge different outcome would occur. You just can't say yet. Watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 CAE is at .25 for the whole period maybe.. falling as snow but definitely not accumulating. ATL is at .29, probably all snow maybe a brief mix but then then the surface is above freezing. GSP is at .13 as snow, but surface warm. CLT .20 snow, and still barely above freezing on the surface. CHS .44 rain/mix/changing to snow .. above freezing surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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