Christmas Storm V

[Pilotwx]

You think we could share it?

Gives poor ole frosty 0.07

[FoothillsNC]

Well, except for the recent hiccups, it has been consistently putting some good snow down here on southside. It is that bit of consistency, plus the unusual blocking that has kept my hopes alive. T

you actually could do pretty good. I say that because the models (seems GFS and RGEM did too) have the intial band with the northern wave stalling so you get intoa period light steady snow (if temps support it) and that band actually stretches right up 85 to about CLT for a while, and thats when the Gulf low is well west off Houston. Then the biggest question mark of all, and here's where I could see things change tremendously on the Euro tomorrow: When the northern stream is coming due south into northwest mississipp, where will be the exact location of the Gulf system? The models have it wobbling in a slightly different spot. I'd say this is a recipe for a major bust.

So tomorrow will be crucial on 2 accounts: where the southern vort goes exactly and where it is in relation to the northern stream vort coming in around 42 or 48 hours. They will probably be extremely close, and they could phase in a flash. One other thing, I'm pretty sure all models are still weaking the southern stream too quickly. If you notice, each run maintains that southern stream an additional 6 or 12 hours, so this is a sign the southern stream system is probably going to be strong a while, maybe closed all the way into the Gulf. If that happens, then I'd look for the storm to suddenly develop in the northeast gulf and begin exploding off GA coast.

[DopplerWx]

I don't think temperatures would be an issue. at 72hours, EC closes off a 500mb low in Eastern NC 527dm and is SW of the main surface low. this is a thread the needle situation but 850mb temperatures stay below 0z through most if not all of SC the entire storm.

Good to hear. Add in that qpfs look good for the eastern carolinas i.e. .25-.5" we could be looking at a very good snow event. Localized locations would proabbly get a good bit off accumulation too.

[weavervillewx]

Here is my first call map... discussion to follow on my site... needless to say things are not looking great for WNC, but folks further east might get a nice little snowstorm.

You might want to tweak the weather forecast, cold temps might not support it until late in the day, thus supporting less snow. But I guess we shall wait and see tomm with the future forecast models.

[DopplerWx]

you actually could do pretty good. I say that because the models (seems GFS and RGEM did too) have the intial band with the northern wave stalling so you get intoa period light steady snow (if temps support it) and that band actually stretches right up 85 to about CLT for a while, and thats when the Gulf low is well west off Houston. Then the biggest question mark of all, and here's where I could see things change tremendously on the Euro tomorrow: When the northern stream is coming due south into northwest mississipp, where will be the exact location of the Gulf system? The models have it wobbling in a slightly different spot. I'd say this is a recipe for a major bust.

So tomorrow will be crucial on 2 accounts: where the southern vort goes exactly and where it is in relation to the northern stream vort coming in around 42 or 48 hours. They will probably be extremely close, and they could phase in a flash. One other thing, I'm pretty sure all models are still weaking the southern stream too quickly. If you notice, each run maintains that southern stream an additional 6 or 12 hours, so this is a sign the southern stream system is probably going to be strong a while, maybe closed all the way into the Gulf. If that happens, then I'd look for the storm to suddenly develop in the northeast gulf and begin exploding off GA coast.

Very interesting, and you made some great points. You just cant ignore that each model is trending closer to a big event, although the trends are very small. I know Ive said this the past 3 days, but tomorrows runs are huge. If we can keep the trends going for a stronger s/w for a longer period of time into the 6z and 12z runs I think the models will look much better for a majority of those in the SE. Will the models keep trending and then converge tomorrow on a bomb off GA? Or will they stay put and show a weak OTS solution that drops a few inches on the eastern carolinas? Either way snow will fall on or just after christmas which is something we would all have taken a week ago in a heartbeat.

[dsaur]

you actually could do pretty good. I say that because the models (seems GFS and RGEM did too) have the intial band with the northern wave stalling so you get intoa period light steady snow (if temps support it) and that band actually stretches right up 85 to about CLT for a while, and thats when the Gulf low is well west off Houston. Then the biggest question mark of all, and here's where I could see things change tremendously on the Euro tomorrow: When the northern stream is coming due south into northwest mississipp, where will be the exact location of the Gulf system? The models have it wobbling in a slightly different spot. I'd say this is a recipe for a major bust.

So tomorrow will be crucial on 2 accounts: where the southern vort goes exactly and where it is in relation to the northern stream vort coming in around 42 or 48 hours. They will probably be extremely close, and they could phase in a flash. One other thing, I'm pretty sure all models are still weaking the southern stream too quickly. If you notice, each run maintains that southern stream an additional 6 or 12 hours, so this is a sign the southern stream system is probably going to be strong a while, maybe closed all the way into the Gulf. If that happens, then I'd look for the storm to suddenly develop in the northeast gulf and begin exploding off GA coast.

Wouldn't have it any other way, lol. If it were written in stone, if wouldn't be near the fun. Get some good rest, Capt'n Robert, we need you on deck at the end. I know about being care giver and the one premium is good rest. Tony

[weavervillewx]

I would be happy if the storm system moves more inland and brings heavier moisture than what they are calling for more inland in NC. Remember about the superstorm of '93, it was first thought of a DUD, (flurries for WNC) Then we got dumped with 2-3 feet of snow! This might happen with this system (but I doubt it)

[DopplerWx]

I would be happy if the storm system moves more inland and brings heavier moisture than what they are calling for more inland in NC. Remember about the superstorm of '93, it was first thought of a DUD, (flurries for WNC) Then we got dumped with 2-3 feet of snow! This might happen with this system (but I doubt it)

'93 and this storm are different animals. This thing isnt going to cut inland like '93. Best you could hope for is a bomb off GA that throws precip into the western carolinas.

[Stormsfury]

Complex and convoluted patterns never spit out simple solutions and everything has to be just right. Reason why the March 1993 superstorm was so well sniffed out by guidance was the fact that the pattern was relative simple. A lot of people say that the wait to Christmas day is always a long wait, but throw in the potential for a snow event or even snowstorm for Christmas to all of us weather fanatics, and now the wait just became eternal.

[BullCityWx]

Boy, that shows you the 850 RH maps are worthless -- looks like a huge dump for the Tenn Valley, but must be deceiving.

FWIW, I prefer doing 700RH maps. It seems to do a better job with that sort of stuff.

[FoothillsNC]

Either way snow will fall on or just after christmas which is something we would all have taken a week ago in a heartbeat.

good post and true. It does appear a lot of us will get to see atleast a little snow.

Wouldn't have it any other way, lol. If it were written in stone, if wouldn't be near the fun. Get some good rest, Capt'n Robert, we need you on deck at the end. I know about being care giver and the one premium is good rest. Tony

Thanks T. and rest is something eluding me lately. Always does when in storm mode. Eventually by next week we'll be getting under a southeast ridge and I can park it a while.

[MillzPirate]

it really really wouldnt take much at all for this to turn into a dump for eastern NC.... all the models are so close to phasing this thing in time... over .75 on the GFS sure doesnt help me sleep easy tonight

[DopplerWx]

it really really wouldnt take much at all for this to turn into a dump for eastern NC.... all the models are so close to phasing this thing in time... over .75 on the GFS sure doesnt help me sleep easy tonight

Agreed. And it wouldnt take much of a shift for western nc and sc to get a good snow, much less us in the eastern carolinas. I think ill tell myself to expect 1-2" at this point which Ill take anyday, and if the models looks better tomorrow night Ill have to raise my expectations. But for now, I'm happy with 1-2".

[Rankin5150]

FWIW, I prefer doing 700RH maps. It seems to do a better job with that sort of stuff.

QC,

Have you looked at our sounding data lately? Any threat of rain mixing in with the snow we receive? I THINK temps will be fine though...

[FoothillsNC]

Complex and convoluted patterns never spit out simple solutions and everything has to be just right. Reason why the March 1993 superstorm was so well sniffed out by guidance was the fact that the pattern was relative simple. A lot of people say that the wait to Christmas day is always a long wait, but throw in the potential for a snow event or even snowstorm for Christmas to all of us weather fanatics, and now the wait just became eternal.

I think I've followed this system it seems like forever. Probably the longest one I've really analyzed ina while anyway. There's no shortage of cold on teh Euro tonight. We warm up middle and late next week, but theres plenty of cold coming back into the states. Canada is absolutely frigid wall to wall.

[weavervillewx]

For Atlanta: Christmas Day, cloudy, cool 39 to 46, with light rain. Possible flurries after 4pm. per the NAM. No phase and northern stream is very dominant. This is basically a cold front.

Looks like the snowstorm for ATL is CAPUT! Im hearing WWA will be issued for NC MTNS and FOOTHILLS West of I-77 by NWS GSP maybe by lunchtime Friday! WSW Lowend- might be issued by MRX for northern east tn by tmrw afternoon including TRI and SW Virginia. for 2-4 with iso amts up to 6 inches of snow. MAYBE a dusting of snow to 1 inch from clt east to I-95 corridor, because of the lack of COLD AIR IN PLACE, I believe the temps will fall thru the day for areas east of the mtns and temps to stay around freezing all day for the mtns bringing all snow starting around 3 am christmas! Light snow accum for buncombe county with more towards moderate accum for the counties bordering tennessee. But who knows! Things will probably change during the next 2 runs. Lets just hope for the better!. Here is the HWO from the NWS in GSP:

"HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-242045-RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONTNORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COASTFRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE PASSING OFF THEGEORGIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASEACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY...WITHLIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. THESNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. THEPRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERSSATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OFINTERSTATE 77. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THISSYSTEM...BUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLEIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED ONE TO TWOINCH TOTALS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. WINTERWEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS HOLIDAYWEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...NONE.$$HG"

Here is another HWO:

"HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-242045-

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-

CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-

335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE

INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE PASSING OFF THE

GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY

NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS SATURDAY. STEADY LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF

THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE

TENNESSEE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW

WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH

ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 1 TO 3 INCHES BY EARLY

SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A PROLONGED PERIOD

OF LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE

BORDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS

LIKELY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF

THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-242045-

MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-

335 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...BEFORE PASSING OFF THE

GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY

NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING

HOURS SATURDAY. STEADY LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF

THE DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE

TENNESSEE BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW

WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH

ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 1 TO 3 INCHES BY EARLY

SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A PROLONGED PERIOD

OF LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE

BORDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS

LIKELY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE

NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. KEEP ABREAST OF

THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE."

[weavervillewx]

According to RAH NWS: Chances for a SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS DECREASED!

"HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

348 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-242100-

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-

ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-

JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-

RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-

348 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

ON SATURDAY SPREADING LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO

THE AREA. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...A DEVELOPING

COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL

AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH MUCH

OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW...THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS DIMINISHED.

RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL

ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS

CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."

[eyewall]

New discussion and forecast with update map now up on my site.

[weavervillewx]

Winter wx advisory just issued for eastern ky! 1-3 inches poss with amts approaching 4 inches near va line.

[WeatherNC]

These disco's are almost 12 hours old... Stop with the weeniesm and borderline nonsense posts, please, see here for further banter...

[phil882]

You might want to tweak the weather forecast, cold temps might not support it until late in the day, thus supporting less snow. But I guess we shall wait and see tomm with the future forecast models.

Well its a tricky one to pin down for folks in GA and SC thats for sure. The problem is we need heavy precipitation rates to allow for the best diabatic cooling, by melting snow aloft as it falls towards the surface. You can overcome a relatively warm surface layer with heavy enough rates, even during the day time since the sun angle this time of the year is about the lowest it can be. However, that doesn't mean much if you have enough warm air advection occurring the prevent such a setup.

Right now we won't be dealing with a strong 850mb low or 700mb low until the system is offshore, so there won't be much warm air advection at the start of the event. This should support snow if we can get enough dynamical cooling for locations in SC and GA. At this point the GFS is trying to show there might be a finger of higher precipitation rates that will be training while gradually moving westward with time in this region. I get the feeling that there might be some heavier rates in this band that would allow some areas within my 1-3" area verify with snowfall. This small band will likely enlarge and fill in as you move further west, as the coastal low gets going.

[MillzPirate]

would really be more encouraged if even 1 model had shown the big dog again.... but the GFS and Euro are pretty close... just dont know if we are running out of time

[weavervillewx]

Well its a tricky one to pin down for folks in GA and SC thats for sure. The problem is we need heavy precipitation rates to allow for the best diabatic cooling, by melting snow aloft as it falls towards the surface. You can overcome a relatively warm surface layer with heavy enough rates, even during the day time since the sun angle this time of the year is about the lowest it can be. However, that doesn't mean much if you have enough warm air advection occurring the prevent such a setup.

Right now we won't be dealing with a strong 850mb low or 700mb low until the system is offshore, so there won't be much warm air advection at the start of the event. This should support snow if we can get enough dynamical cooling for locations in SC and GA. At this point the GFS is trying to show there might be a finger of higher precipitation rates that will be training while gradually moving westward with time in this region. I get the feeling that there might be some heavier rates in this band that would allow some areas within my 1-3" area verify with snowfall. This small band will likely enlarge and fill in as you move further west, as the coastal low gets going.

Alright thank you. I guess we shall know more in full depth hopefully by noon.

[BullCityWx]

Nobody noticed the sizeable jump westbound on the SREF?

15z(valid at 78 hours):

21z(valid at 72 hours)

[WeatherNC]

Cells just beginning to fire SE of Midland TX over the past 30 mins...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MAF&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[phil882]

My updated discussion...

http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html

[AirNelson39]

NAM will start soon, anyone going to be up to look at it?

[MillzPirate]

NAM will start soon, anyone going to be up to look at it?

I am, but if the NAM doesnt show me much this run, then I'm going to be skeptical that we see much shift as we grow closer

[Jon]

I am, but if the NAM doesnt show me much this run, then I'm going to be skeptical that we see much shift as we grow closer

Doesn't look like it...keeps everything pretty much the same except the s/w is slightly slower (not by much) and weaker low to my untrained eye...

[MillzPirate]

yeah.... northern wave sheers it out as usual... im feeling pretty confident that this is likely what will happen