Christmas Storm V

[BIG FROSTY]

Isnt this kinda outside the Euro's best window though getting inside of 48hrs of the event?

May be ? but it's the one that had it so long, That's the only reason I would be interested again.

[WeatherNC]

21z SREF storm tracks from the main-side model thread, consensus looks to be well OTS

Not sure what is going on with the GGEM, as the RGEM looked great. GGEM paints almost no QPF, and seems like an outlier atm given an american blend over the past 24hrs. One thing to note about the 21z SREF tracks above, 0z RAOB ingest was not in this run, so things could change one way or another, but the clustering well offshore is discouraging.

[POWERSTROKE]

I have way less chance than you, But I have to admit I'm getting a little more interested again tonight. GFS real close, Can. looks alot closer even though it's still ots it did make a vast inprovement, Ukie come way west etc..... BUT if euro don't move west some tonight, I'm done with this one !

I am not getting excited over flurries. We had a huge storm all week down to nothing I would hope we get at least 4 or more inches than just flurries.

[Pilotwx]

The Euro has had a history of losing storms on day 3 and bring them back on day 2!

Not saying 1996 is going to happen or even 1993, but most storms that are historical only get modeled right within the 36 to 48 hr time frame.

To many things have to come together at the right time and right place.

How many times in the last 10 years have we seen a storm 10 days out get our attention and get visions of a major on it's way just to have it disappear?

[FoothillsNC]

before i stay up any later do we have someone on to do the euro PBP?

I don't know if Burger is around , I guess not, but I will be up a few more minutes so atleast I'll look through 72 hours or so, if nothing, i'm hanging it up.

[Wow]

The Euro has had a history of losing storms on day 3 and bring them back on day 2!

when?

[Wow]

I don't know if Burger is around , I guess not, but I will be up a few more minutes so atleast I'll look through 72 hours or so, if nothing, i'm hanging it up.

i will too.

[Pilotwx]

Who put a low over Roberts house?

21z SREF storm tracks from the main-side model thread, consensus looks to be well OTS

Not sure what is going on with the GGEM, as the RGEM looked great. GGEM paints almost no QPF, and seems like an outlier atm given an american blend over the past 24hrs. One thing to note about the 21z SREF tracks above, 0z RAOB ingest was not in this run, so things could change one way or another, but the clustering well offshore is discouraging.

[WeatherNC]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1119 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID DEC 24/0000 UTC THRU DEC 27/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES...

NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT

RANGE FORECASTS.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH SPLITS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEST

LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY...COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF

PREFERRED

THE NAM HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF

RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF

THIS TROUGH AND SOUTHWARD WITH ITS SOUTHERN SECTION OVER ITS PAST

DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER/LESS NEGATIVELY TILTED

WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. WHEN

COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 18Z GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE AND DOES

NOT LEAVE A PORTION BEHIND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE FLOW IS

BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL INTO THE NORTHWEST...THERE SHOULD BE

ENOUGH ROOM FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY TO BE LEFT IN THE

SOUTHWEST...WHICH BOTH THE 18Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE

MEAN HINT AT...SO WILL DISCOUNT THE 18Z GFS. THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS

ENERGY...BUT MOVES IT WAY TOO FAST...SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT

CONSIDERED. WITH THE PORTION CROSSING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL

DIVIDE TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY MONDAY...THE 12Z UKMET IS A

FAST OUTLIER...WHICH IS ONE OF ITS BIASES. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE

WEAK...FAVORING AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME INSTEAD OF THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN

CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEADING TO A SLOW APPEARANCE TO THIS SYSTEMS

PROGRESSION. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS

SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...SO

WILL DISCOUNT THE 00Z NAM. THE 12Z UKMET HAS A BONUS CYCLONE

MOVING BETWEEN QUEEN CHARLOTTE AND VANCOUVER ISLAND MONDAY MORNING

WHICH ONLY HAS SUPPORT OF 3 OF THE 90 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS...SO WILL NOT USE ITS SOLUTION EITHER. A COMPROMISE OF

THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST OVERALL...AND ARE

PREFERRED.

TRIO OF SHORTWAVES PHASING INTO AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING...

LOW PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE THE EAST

COAST...PREFERENCE FOR AN 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE

INITIALLY...THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT

OF THE SOUTHWEST AND STRONGER WITH THE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING

THROUGH THE MIDWEST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. ON

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE MAIN

UPPER CENTER BUT BROADER OVERALL WITH THE TROUGH. THE NAM SURFACE

LOW LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS TRACK-WISE...THOUGH

IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN ITS 12Z OR 18Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED

SOUTHWEST/SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE

ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...BUT

STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH/MORE PHASED WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE

MIDWEST/ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.

THERE IS A LONG TERM MULTI-DAY WAVER SEEN IN THE ECMWF SURFACE

LOW...AS ITS SURFACE LOW HAS TRENDED QUICKER/WEAKER OVER ITS PAST

COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH IT IS SWINGING BACK TOWARDS ITS

SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY.

WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...THE 12Z CANADIAN IN ON THE SLOW

SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ENDS UP WITH A CLOSED SYSTEM ALOFT LATE

SATURDAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONSIDERING THE FLOW UNDER THE

BASE OF THE CONSOLIDATED UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES...A QUICKER

SOLUTION SHOULD VERIFY BETTER...SO WILL RULE OUT THE 00Z CANADIAN.

THE 00Z NAM HAS TWO CENTERS WITHIN THE MAIN UPPER CYCLONE EARLY

MONDAY WHILE THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE ONE CENTER OFFSHORE MAINE AT THAT TIME.

OVERALL...THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TOO SLOW/SOUTHWEST WITH ITS CYCLONE

NEAR THE EAST COAST AS IT HAS THE SUPPORT OF ABOUT ONE-FIFTH OF

THE 18Z GEFS MEMBERS AND 1/30 OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

GUIDANCE...SO IT COULD NOT BE USED HERE. THE 12Z UKMET HAS THE

SYSTEM OPEN AND MORE COASTAL ALOFT WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS OPEN

BUT WEAKER WITH ANY ENERGY OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. AT THE

SURFACE...THE 12Z CANADIAN SWINGS THE LOW THE MOST

OFFSHORE...WHILE THE 00Z NAM/12Z UKMET SHOW AN INTERMEDIATE

SOLUTION...AND THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF ARE THE FARTHEST WEST. BOTH

THE 18Z GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVOR A MORE

WESTERLY SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

GFS/ECMWF ALOFT...THOUGH THE MEANS ARE QUICKER THAN THE 18Z GFS.

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...A COMPROMISE OF THE 18Z GFS/12Z

ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED HERE WHICH SWINGS THE CYCLONE JUST

SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE HPC

MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURES FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH ABOUT 200

MILES SLOWER/SOUTHWEST.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

ROTH

[tgarren]

if this dry area is the northern stream it does not appear to me that our s/w is going to be able to get in front of it. i think the euro is not going to bring most any joy.

[Itunis]

if this dry area is the northern stream it does not appear to me that our s/w is going to be able to get in front of it. i think the euro is not going to bring most any joy.

It's using data from the same sources and timeframe as the other models and the GFS and RGEM at least improved, so I don't see why the Euro would necessarily trend worse.

[Wow]

if this dry area is the northern stream it does not appear to me that our s/w is going to be able to get in front of it. i think the euro is not going to bring most any joy.

you're probably right, but there's enough doubt there just to give it one more try

[phil882]

Here is my first call map... discussion to follow on my site... needless to say things are not looking great for WNC, but folks further east might get a nice little snowstorm.

[FoothillsNC]

Who put a low over Roberts house?

I'll be around...my PBP was terrible today, so I've been hanging back letting the pros do their magic

what magic? Lose an epic storm?

[WeatherNC]

0z JMA: http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm

[dsaur]

I'm interested in aspects of a post made earlier dealing with writing code for the models, and the use of analog information in the process. I had assumed it was data from buoys, balloons, drop sondes, reporting stations, and vapor maps, etc, but hadn't considered past events figuring into the equations. If anyone knows...at what point is analog info digested by the model? I.e. Is the analog info fed in as events unfold, or has it all been added in when the model was written? When the data from buoys and balloons is fed into the computer, are humans choosing analog data to feed in also, or has it all been written in years before, and kicks in when the physical data is received and triggers a key. How much human input takes place before initialization that is other than raw data from transmitters. Thanks...I hope I made sense.

[DopplerWx]

JMA is west too. All models seem to have come west except the canadian and ggem. Euro should give us a good idea here in a few mins. Will it be or

[burgertime]

0z JMA: http://www.wxcaster....eign_models.htm

Nice run for you guys as much as I hate not getting the big one hopefully you and others can cash in on this thing.

[Shawn]

JMA is west too. All models seem to have come west except the canadian and ggem. Euro should give us a good idea here in a few mins. Will it be or

You mean the RGEM, which looked WAY BETTER. The GGEM is the Canadian.

[FoothillsNC]

Ha well I guess I should have said work, I was more mixed up then a milk shake today so I took the post less learn more approach these past two runs.

you were doing pretty good. I'm just in it tonight to see how it does for the eastern sections and maybe southern alabama and GA. I know it can't work here but I think something good could be coming to the eastern sections.

[burgertime]

you were doing pretty good. I'm just in it tonight to see how it does for the eastern sections and maybe southern alabama and GA. I know it can't work here but I think something good could be coming to the eastern sections.

Maybe last years trends are coming back I'm just glad to be on the freaking edge. Euro has initialized let's see what the Dr. says.

[Stormsfury]

I'm up like normal since I don't sleep well until after 3 am anyway. I think the northern shortwave in question just took a pit stop at Santa's place. hopefully someone with clout with Claus can convince up a Christmas miracle for the Southeast.

[FoothillsNC]

out to 12. A closed southern system near Lubbock and strong s/w in eastern Dakotas.

[burgertime]

@12 our low is further SW than 12z.

[burgertime]

@24 a stronger low west of DFW

[kanc2001]

lol at JMA 6-8 in Jacksonville? yeah right

[burgertime]

@30 low is NW of Houston.

[FoothillsNC]

the clsoed low sure has a nice qpf max under it as it moves into Tex. at 30 hour theres the northern stream already in western KY and the southern is west of Houston. This looks like the northern stream first wave may keep it south. But perhaps the next wave in teh northern stream will be the one to pickit up.

[FoothillsNC]

at 36, theres a 1016 low in teh western Gulf, very hard to make out the next wave in the northern stream yet. Very cold deep into the south with flurries.

[superjames1992]

lol at JMA 6-8 in Jacksonville? yeah right

If you look at the previous frame, I think all of that falls before the 0C line gets south of Jacksonville. Remember, the JMA is only in 24 hour increments.