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March 2021

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23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We'll all be below freezing April 1-2.

 

But then Easter through next week look amazing, sun and warmth.

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Newark should get to 80 days with a min 32 or lower after this week...

Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot...

2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......12..................79

2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13.........3.........1.......65

2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16..........1.......89

2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88

2016-17.....0.........1........18........13.......18.......16.........0.......66

2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27.......17.........6.........5.......60

2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99

2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27.......25.......19.........1......105

2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82

2011-12.....1..........1........14........17........15..........5.........0.......53

2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12.........0.......96

 

2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24.........2.........0.......72

2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23.......13.........0.......98

2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22.......21........14.........0.......77

2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19........27........12.........5.......77

2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79

2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19..........0.......83

2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11..........3.......91

2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95

2001-02.....0.........4........11........15........16........11...........2.......59

2000-01.....0..........7.......28.......25.......19.........13..........0.......92

 

1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68

1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65

1997-98.....1.........10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67

1996-97.....0........15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88

1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107

1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24..........6..........3.......70

1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25.........12..........0.......84

1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24.........15..........0.......78

1991-92.....0.........5.......18........19.......19..........17..........2.......80

1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10.........0.......64

 

1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11..........1.......85

1988-89.....1..........2.......24.......19.......22........15..........0.......83

1987-88.....0.........5........15.......24.......24.......13..........0.......81

1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28.......14...........1.......90

1985-86.....0.........0.......23.......25.......23.......12..........0.......83

1984-85.....0.........9.......14.......29.......21........13..........0.......86

1983-84.....0.........2.......18.......27........12........15..........0.......74

1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20........19.........7..........0.......68

1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19........10..........7.......93

1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16........16..........1.......96

 

1979-80.....0.........2.......15........25.......24.......14.........3.......83

1978-79.....0.........4.......19........20.......22.........9.........1.......75

1977-78.....0.........7.......23.......28.......28........13.........1.....100

1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19...........8........3.....108

1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29.......16.........13........2.......84

1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18.......17.........16.........9.......87

1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19.......25........11.........1.......74

1972-73.....1..........9........9........18.......19..........2........0.......58

1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16........4.......82

1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.......15.........10........0.......77

 

1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30.......24.......14........2.....107

1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23.......23.......20........1.......96

1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.......12.........1.......90

1966-67......1..........5.......21.......20.......25.......16.........1.......89

1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21........13.........1.......85

1964-65.....0.........5.......19.......28.......22........12.........1.......87

1963-64.....0.........3.......27.......20.......26........13........4.......93

1962-63......1.........3.......23.......25.......26.......12.........1.......91

1961-62......0.........6.......23.......27.......23.......12.........1.......92

1960-61......0.........4.......28.......28.......15.......12.........0.......87

 

1959-60.....0.........7........18.......24.......24.......25.........1.......99

1958-59.....0.........5.......27.......25.......24.......18.........0.......89

1957-58.....0.........6........16.......24.......23.........9.........1.......79

1956-57.....0........12........14.......29.......22.......10.........3.......90

1955-56.....0.........8........27.......27.......19.......20.........3.....104

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8 hours ago, uncle W said:

Newark should get to 80 days with a min 32 or lower after this week...

Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot...

2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......12..................79

2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13.........3.........1.......65

2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16..........1.......89

2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88

2016-17.....0.........1........18........13.......18.......16.........0.......66

2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27.......17.........6.........5.......60

2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99

2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27.......25.......19.........1......105

2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82

2011-12.....1..........1........14........17........15..........5.........0.......53

2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12.........0.......96

 

2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24.........2.........0.......72

2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23.......13.........0.......98

2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22.......21........14.........0.......77

2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19........27........12.........5.......77

2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79

2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19..........0.......83

2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11..........3.......91

2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95

2001-02.....0.........4........11........15........16........11...........2.......59

2000-01.....0..........7.......28.......25.......19.........13..........0.......92

 

1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68

1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65

1997-98.....1.........10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67

1996-97.....0........15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88

1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107

1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24..........6..........3.......70

1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25.........12..........0.......84

1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24.........15..........0.......78

1991-92.....0.........5.......18........19.......19..........17..........2.......80

1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10.........0.......64

 

1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11..........1.......85

1988-89.....1..........2.......24.......19.......22........15..........0.......83

1987-88.....0.........5........15.......24.......24.......13..........0.......81

1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28.......14...........1.......90

1985-86.....0.........0.......23.......25.......23.......12..........0.......83

1984-85.....0.........9.......14.......29.......21........13..........0.......86

1983-84.....0.........2.......18.......27........12........15..........0.......74

1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20........19.........7..........0.......68

1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19........10..........7.......93

1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16........16..........1.......96

 

1979-80.....0.........2.......15........25.......24.......14.........3.......83

1978-79.....0.........4.......19........20.......22.........9.........1.......75

1977-78.....0.........7.......23.......28.......28........13.........1.....100

1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19...........8........3.....108

1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29.......16.........13........2.......84

1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18.......17.........16.........9.......87

1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19.......25........11.........1.......74

1972-73.....1..........9........9........18.......19..........2........0.......58

1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16........4.......82

1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.......15.........10........0.......77

 

1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30.......24.......14........2.....107

1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23.......23.......20........1.......96

1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.......12.........1.......90

1966-67......1..........5.......21.......20.......25.......16.........1.......89

1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21........13.........1.......85

1964-65.....0.........5.......19.......28.......22........12.........1.......87

1963-64.....0.........3.......27.......20.......26........13........4.......93

1962-63......1.........3.......23.......25.......26.......12.........1.......91

1961-62......0.........6.......23.......27.......23.......12.........1.......92

1960-61......0.........4.......28.......28.......15.......12.........0.......87

 

1959-60.....0.........7........18.......24.......24.......25.........1.......99

1958-59.....0.........5.......27.......25.......24.......18.........0.......89

1957-58.....0.........6........16.......24.......23.........9.........1.......79

1956-57.....0........12........14.......29.......22.......10.........3.......90

1955-56.....0.........8........27.......27.......19.......20.........3.....104

 

Great table, Unc.  Love how far back it goes. This is another good way to spot the "good" winters.

Already discussed: Wonder if NYC will see a below-freezing morning in April, as we had one on November as well.

Maybe this week?

 

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This has to be the most perfect February to March temperature reversal across the US on record. 
 

97E4BC0F-D419-4A86-90C5-312706937D61.thumb.png.b16b9ded3db2236fe1039cda414b9393.png
E7F6DA9A-DCDA-4F5C-882D-D390F4346E66.thumb.png.be72ea75c6e621ca86694fa123c66f93.png

 

 

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March will conclude on a mild note tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the lower 60s across the region. However, rain will develop during the afternoon as a strong cold front advances eastward. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible.

April will start out on the side. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning.

Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +1.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.852 today.

On March 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.424 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.7° (3.2° above normal).

 

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8 hours ago, stemwinder said:

 

Great table, Unc.  Love how far back it goes. This is another good way to spot the "good" winters.

Already discussed: Wonder if NYC will see a below-freezing morning in April, as we had one on November as well.

Maybe this week?

 

Had it in October too

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The last day of March is averaging 57degs.(45/61), or +7.0.

Month to date is  45.4[+3.1].          March should end at 45.7[+3.2].

The first 10 days of April are averaging 53degs.(45/61)., or about +4.0.

48*(99%RH) here are at 6am.   49* at 7am, cloudy.        53* by Noon.         55* by 3pm.------66* in the City!         56* at 4:30pm.         54* at 10pm,  variable

 

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This is the first two consecutive Marches in NYC that were this warm. The current 45.4° is the 14th warmest March average temperature for NYC. Last March was the 7th warmest.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 51.1 0
2 2012 50.9 0
3 1946 49.8 0
4 2016 48.9 0
5 1921 48.4 0
6 2010 48.2 0
- 1903 48.2 0
7 2020 48.0 0
8 2000 47.2 0
9 1979 46.9 0
10 1977 46.7 0
11 1973 46.4 0
12 1898 46.1 0
13 1985 45.8 0
14 2021 45.4 1

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Morning thoughts...

Rain will arrive today as a strong cold front approaches and moves across the region. A storm will track northward along that front, but pass to the north and west of the New York City area. An area running from upstate New York up the St. Lawrence River in Quebec could pick up a moderate to significant snowfall. Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cold air mass will move into the East for the first two days of April.  

High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 68°

Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder. On Friday morning, New York City could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018 when the temperature fell to. 32°. Some near record to record low temperatures are possible on Friday in the Gulf States and Southeast.

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rain should have started by late morning in the city it is 4:00pm and not a drop yet..these local weather forecasters are getting worse ..

  • Weenie 7

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March 2021 finished with a mean temperature of 45.8° in New York City. That was 3.3° above normal and ranked March 2021 as the 13th warmest March on record.

A brief shot of much cooler air is now on its way. As a strong cold front advances eastward and a storm moves northward along the front, there will be periods of rain overnight. Across central and upstate New York and parts of Quebec, the rain will change to accumulating snow. There a moderate to significant accumulation is possible.

Following the frontal passage, April will start out on the cold side. Despite a return of sunshine tomorrow, it will be blustery and cold with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. On Friday morning, New York City's Central Park could see its first April freeze since April 9, 2018. In an area extending from the Gulf States to the Southeast, some near record and record low temperatures are possible that morning.

Moderation will occur during the weekend. Temperatures will likely return to the 60s in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. That warmer scenario remains the base case.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around March 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -6.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.512 today.

On March 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.397 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.685 (RMM).

 

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11 hours ago, Rjay said:

Those damn local meteorologists!

i hate meteorologists they are the worst

buncha nerds with their rain gauges and their slide rules and their pocket shirts

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