Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,780
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Avon
    Newest Member
    Avon
    Joined

February 18-19 Event


hazwoper
 Share

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, Oliviajames said:

What are you thoughts for Berks?

Well, of course surface temps are going to be a bit colder. But the thing is, with the track of this system and the LLJ orientation, the sleet line will probably move SW to NE, not S to N. So at least from a timing standpoint...you're not going to stay snow much longer than Philly. A bigger delineator of time would be drawing lines W-E, or ideally NE to SW as I said above. However, I think FZRA is less of an issue for you...so you'll see sleet longer, and may actually get through the entire event without any change to FZRA. From a totals standpoint, since most of the accumulations being progged are based on the front end, I think you might be a touch higher than Philly...so instead of 4-7 I'd say perhaps 5-8 for you guys particularly given the lack of fzra. 

Ok that's the end of my point-forecasting for now, I have to go back to work hahahaha.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Well, of course surface temps are going to be a bit colder. But the thing is, with the track of this system and the LLJ orientation, the sleet line will probably move SW to NE, not S to N. So at least from a timing standpoint...you're not going to stay snow much longer than Philly. A bigger delineator of time would be drawing lines W-E, or ideally NE to SW as I said above. However, I think FZRA is less of an issue for you...so you'll see sleet longer, and may actually get through the entire event without any change to FZRA. From a totals standpoint, since most of the accumulations being progged are based on the front end, I think you might be a touch higher than Philly...so instead of 4-7 I'd say perhaps 5-8 for you guys particularly given the lack of fzra. 

Ok that's the end of my point-forecasting for now, I have to go back to work hahahaha.

Hey thanks man, much appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, BBasile said:

Yeah, that looks mostly like Mt Holly and State College weren't talking to each other.  Everything else looks pretty good.  

For the record we did talk last night. There was only 1-2 inches of snow difference between us. Once totals pass 8.0 the next range is plotted, which in this case is 8-12 inches. I did not want that displayed yet as people would gravitate to the 12 inches. We were well collaborated with our other offices. 

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

Yes it does. It says it right in the map. *includes Sleet*. Come on guys. 

Right there is sleet on the map, south of the mason dixon line, but not in phl, not at 18z

 

But to be fair, im not a huge fan of their maps, especially when its not all snow

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Everybody thrown in the same pot with the new NWS warning interesting scenario

4-6" 

Expectations set at 5" snow and sleet

So shoveling the folks driveway should be nice and light? Outstanding!

Watching Glenn...appears he's heading more sleeti-ish.

29F

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. 

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. 

 

Not at all, I agree. It's just some forum members don't think it exist. It really does. Just going outside today w/the sun glaring, it's quite noticeable.

Glenn's last update saying "the snow will accumulate well early on"....meaning sun angle will kick in. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Not at all, I agree. It's just some forum members don't think it exist. It really does. Just going outside today w/the sun glaring, it's quite noticeable.

Glenn's last update saying "the snow will accumulate well early on"....meaning sun angle will kick in. 

It exists but for the most part way overblown....for light snow for sure it is an issue for moderate to heavy....it will accumulate - heck S+ will accumulate at 34 degrees at 2pm....

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The whole sun angle thing is for real, however some including myself have been burned by this before. Regarding this storm, through about 2 PM Thursday looks like when roads will be the worst but yeah once the snow intensity lessens roads should improve during peak daylight. Of course sleet does not melt as quick on roads so that is a different story. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

It exists but for the most part way overblown....for light snow for sure it is an issue for moderate to heavy....it will accumulate - heck S+ will accumulate at 34 degrees at 2pm....

Not at all.

Sure, put it in your weenie book then melts 15 mins later is not real snow. If it gives you a sense of stat accomplishment, carry on....

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...