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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Already some showers in MoCo. Could inhibit instability I guess. 

        Those "good" runs earlier this morning had these showers on the north side of DC during the late morning, so I'm not terribly worried.     That said, don't look at the 12z NAM Nest.

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Twitter is blowing up talking about it. Best explanation I saw was something about a low-level inversion trapping the sound, but who knows.

Westminster airport is reporting a thunderstorm. Might be sound bobbing off the inversion?

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Coverage will be limited, but there should in theory still be a few storms on the front over the next 4-5 hours.    And any of those storms that are able to sustain strong updrafts could produce some severe winds or hail.      I'm not super excited about this event, but I'm also not ready to say that it's over.

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VAC079-165-282130-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0530.000000T0000Z-210928T2130Z/
Rockingham VA-Greene VA-
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND GREENE COUNTIES...

At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Massanutten, or
11 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large
         enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to
         roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Massanutten, Stanardsville, Elkton, Ruckersville, Mcmullen, Rocky
Bar, Quinque, Lydia, Haneytown, Mission Home, Swift Run, Amicus,
Mcgaheysville, Saint George and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 7859 3827 7865 3827 7866 3837 7876
      3844 7872 3837 7843 3832 7838 3832 7837
      3831 7836 3820 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 21KT 3837 7868

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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Pathetic as usual.......  Went from likely to chance of storms.  Reminds me of last winter in a way, when three winter storm warnings here dropped a total of 4 inches of snow.  :axe:

 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Latest Mount Holly Update ---  

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There`s still a thunderstorm threat into the evening behind
this morning`s convection, but most of the CAMs are backing off.
Still expecting a gradual moistening and surface heating in
cloud breaks ahead of the surface front and MLCAPE in the
1000-1500 range, but areal coverage is waning. PoPs have been
adjusted downward.

 

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Doesn't usually happen around here

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VAZ038-039-050-282200-
Greene-Madison-Orange-
529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.NOW...

At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Stanardsville, or 7 miles southwest of Madison, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and small hail are possible with this
storm. These storms have a history of producing hail that covers the
ground. Be alert for slippery travel conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Orange, Stanardsville, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Pratts,
Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Madison Mills, Montford, Old Somerset,
Shelby, Dawsonville, Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Somerset, Hood, Locust
Dale, Burtonville and Rapidan.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VAC003-079-137-282215-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/
Orange VA-Albemarle VA-Greene VA-
548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN ALBEMARLE AND SOUTHERN GREENE
COUNTIES...

At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing
large hail covering the ground was located near Free Union, or 11
miles north of Charlottesville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some
         damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Hail
         accumulating on roadways may result in very slippery travel
         conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Hollymead, Ruckersville, Boonesville, Eheart, Barboursville, Stony
Point, Advance Mills, Saint George, Earlysville, Amicus and Shady
Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 7863 3827 7855 3820 7822 3809 7835
      3815 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 293DEG 16KT 3820 7846

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

VAC047-137-282215-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/
Orange VA-Culpeper VA-
549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Culpeper, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some
         damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gold Dale, Raccoon Ford, Mine Run, Lake Of The Woods, Burr Hill,
Locust Grove and Flat Run.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 7809 3838 7798 3840 7787 3838 7768
      3824 7782
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 301DEG 15KT 3832 7791

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH
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