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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So on a whim I bought Radarscope during tonight's storminess...lol Not the juiciest storm, but even so...have always wanted to have a nicer radar to follow!

You'll love it.  Radarscope is awesome.  I've seen the rain/sleet/snow line in winter storms on that thing and it is very accurate.

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So I got hit pretty good.  Not a ton of rain at 0.4, but had some gusts at 50-60.  I had some nice 30-inch long by 10-inch tall and wide wood planter pots on my deck bannister that I was sure were heavy enough not to worry about.  Nope -- one was blown off and smashed with the plants assassinated.  Going on amazon to look for brackets

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Despite earlier watches/warnings, we got absolutely NUTTIN' in this corner of NoVA....which leads me to believe that poor @H2O and @GATECH are sweating off their nether regions right now at B swim meets on their respective neighborhood pool decks.  :(  Still holding out hope for some rain and at least a little lightning/thunder with a slightly less punchier Round #2 moving in from the west.

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25 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

You'll love it.  Radarscope is awesome.  I've seen the rain/sleet/snow line in winter storms on that thing and it is very accurate.

I'm going to bite the bullet too.....From all of the many posts from the screenshots, it looks amazing compared to everything else out there. 

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10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Despite earlier watches/warnings, we got absolutely NUTTIN' in this corner of NoVA....which leads me to believe that poor @H2O and @GATECH are sweating off their nether regions right now at B swim meets on their respective neighborhood pool decks.  :(  Still holding out hope for some rain and at least a little lightning/thunder with a slightly less punchier Round #2 moving in from the west.

At least it cooled down a bit with an outflow boundary…I will take my relief where I can get it!

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21 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Some sort of interference. There has been a lot of talk about it during prior precip events going back a year or so (or more). 

They are working on tracking it down. I operate a wireless network on the east side of DC and was contacted by a FCC enforcement agent trying to find out where the offending transmitter was located.

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Late in the 6z GFS run the model tries to send down a bunch of great mid-level lapse rates but they go from north to south well to our west. But something to keep an eye on if the flow is different as we get closer. 

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Looks to me like Thursday afternoon has a good chance to eventually become a SLGT.     Lapse rates aren't great, but the timing looks favorable, and the shear/instability combo as current progged would likely generate SVR.     Expecting a very heavy rain threat too, particularly as additional rounds of convection move over the area after dark.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Heck of a 12z NAM nest run for the close-in metro area :lol: - Blows up a huge cell or line segment - good UH swath and sim IR frames

Thanks to my experience in snow forecasting I know that this is the only model that will be correct and I should cling to it no matter what the other ones say, ITS NEVER GONE WRONG BEFORE*.

 

*Citation Needed

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Heck of a 12z NAM nest run for the close-in metro area :lol: - Blows up a huge cell or line segment - good UH swath and sim IR frames

       yeah, even if we don't focus on potential significant UH swaths, the signal for widespread, organized convection in the early/mid afternoon hours tomorrow is robust across the CAMs.  The shear/instability profile combo should be sufficient for some of that to become severe.     The only "concern" is weak lapse rates shown in several models, but I like our chances of being upgraded to SLGT in the new day 2 outlook.     

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