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WestTennWX

2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

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7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Where are you at anyways?You mentioned Clarksville but your sig says Smyrna?

 

Edit:Nevermind,i understand now after reading it over

I’m outside Smyrna off 840.  Weird storm.  We are now back to sleet and some snow and frz rain.  Yet radar shows not much but it’s steady here.

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2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m outside Smyrna off 840.  Weird storm.  We are now back to sleet and some snow and frz rain.  Yet radar shows not much but it’s steady here.

You should invest in radarscope,its pretty cheap,i have grlevel 2 also but that is expensive

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Now the Euro gives me 5 inches and the GFSV16 3 with the mid week wave but I'm in believe it when it's falling mode right now. Freezing mist continues though. I feel like I'm in an episode of Deadliest Catch when the boats ice up during freezing spray.

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19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Precip mode isnt doing very good,its not snowing,it's IP

I was blown away with how fast it got slick. Freezing fog/mist all day. 

 

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Precip mode isnt doing very good,its not snowing,it's IP

It mist non stop today, all below freezing. Got dark and got slick quick. Mountain was white,  only a couple of hundred feet up from me. Rime?

IMG_20210214_172351748_HDR.jpg

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Now the Euro gives me 5 inches and the GFSV16 3 with the mid week wave but I'm in believe it when it's falling mode right now. Freezing mist continues though. I feel like I'm in an episode of Deadliest Catch when the boats ice up during freezing spray.

I was looking at myforecast.co which is based off some model(s) and it is showing 20" for Monterey now on Wednesday/Thursday lol.

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25 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

Still a good thumping otw, wonder what the ice totals are on east side?

1611872122_sn10_acc.us_ov(3).thumb.png.7719158f2926505dcdac3cf7725a68a4.png

 

I sure hope it’s right on this second storm.  Be nice to get a nice snow event before Spring. 

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12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Now the Euro gives me 5 inches and the GFSV16 3 with the mid week wave but I'm in believe it when it's falling mode right now. Freezing mist continues though. I feel like I'm in an episode of Deadliest Catch when the boats ice up during freezing spray.

Never can have anything simple here.Inverted trough,this could really cut into the snow and be more IP or ZR  around our parts

AccuWeather-com®-Professional-Forecast-Models (7).png

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11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Never can have anything simple here.Inverted trough,this could really cut into the snow and be more IP or ZR  around our parts

AccuWeather-com®-Professional-Forecast-Models (7).png

I remember the days when a southern slider was money for mid TN. 

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7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I remember the days when a southern slider was money for mid TN. 

Long as i have been living in Tn i  have never recalled a system before it gets to the Big bend of Fl eject to Northern Ga that fast

 

Edit:I'm not saying its fast really,but the track is rather unique

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Going to bed, but our business has given us the day off tomorrow. Seems smart eith most of the roads being completely iced over as of now. Just had our first actual good rain shower come over a few minutes ago. Temperature warmed up a degree to 27 as well. TWC has raised our high temp from 32 all the way to 38 now tomorrow but we'll see. NWS Nashville originally had it around that but actually has us only at 34 now for the high.

 

Good luck to all the Western and Middle forum areas, hopefully it will be a mostly snow event and a good one at that.

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Currently sitting at 13 degrees with 3/4 inch of sleet/snow on ground, heaviest precipitation is close upon arrival, I’m just south of Memphis like 28 miles. 

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24 minutes ago, CG2 said:

Time for people in west TN to wake-up and give us some updates!!!

Slept in a little later than I wanted to this morning..haha

Most of what is covering the ground we picked up with the last wave that came through sometime between 3 and 6, I'd say an an inch and a half to two inches

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COOL – WE HAVE POWER! 

Last night worked out pretty much as I had expected for us in southern Lincoln County. My skepticism was accurate. That warmth to our south pushed it around us just enough. We dodged it.

Overnight, we had a 78% precip probability but got 0.00". This morning at 7:30, light icing on windshields (I've seen thicker frosts), 28 degrees, winds NE at 2 and barometer steady at 29.85 inHg. A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet.

Really hoping all the members who can't log in this morning because of power outages are coping well.

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Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area

8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal!

 

From PAH:

Additionally, with very cold tropospheric temperatures,
snow-to-liquid ratios of 10-15:1 this morning are forecast to
increase to 15-20:1 by this afternoon. So the combination of the
strong forcing, high QPF, and high SLRs will contribute to very
efficient snow accumulation. Overall, storm total snow accumulation
of 6 to 10 inches is expected, with some localized totals up to a
foot. Add in the north winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20
to 25 mph, and blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. All
this adds up to a serious situation that will cripple the flow of
traffic and commerce in the region. And dangerously cold sub zero
wind chills in many locations heightens the threat to life. As a
result, the Winter Storm Warning will continue through tonight.

 

 

MEM:

Short term...(Today through Tuesday)...An 850 mb low will move
from Central Arkansas today northeast into the Ohio Valley
tonight. Ample moisture and strong large scale forcing combined
with a very cold arctic airmass will continue to produce wintry
precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the day and heavy
at times this morning and into this afternoon. Analysis of short
term model soundings indicates precipitation will remain snow over
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest
Tennessee, initially a mix of sleet and snow along and south of
I-40 and gradually transitioning to all snow this morning near the
Mississippi River and gradually across the remainder of West
Tennessee into this afternoon. Snow ratios will average from 20:1
near the MO/KY border to 15:1 towards North Mississippi. Meanwhile,
precipitation across most of North Central and Northeast
Mississippi will be a mixture of sleet and freezing rain then
gradually transitioning to snow towards the end of the event
towards this evening. Areas to the southeast of Tupelo are most
likely to experience freezing rain for much of the event and the
Winter Storm Warning was transitioned over to an ice storm warning
where one quarter to one half inch of ice accumulation may occur.
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12 hours ago, bamabonners said:

Sweetpea, I'm just southeast of huntsville in Owens Cross Roads.  Looking like most of this is staying just west of us, which is fine with me.  I don't mind snow, but I don't want anything to do with ice.  Are you thinking the same?

Sorry, I was watching TV when you posted! :D I'm with you! It can snow all it wants, but ice is bad. We dodged a bullet. I went through a couple ice storms here - worst I think was 1994,  we were out of power for 7 days. I've just got my first cup of coffee, but I'm due to dive into the models to see why the heck they predict 5-8 inches of snow here when winds are NN EAST! That sounds ludicrous. But we'll see.

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5 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area

8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal!.

My gosh, you are just 140 miles or so north of me (if we count north only and not the west part), and you are at EIGHT? Hoo boy, glad I sat this one out! B)

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12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet.

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

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Just now, Coach B said:

I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up.

It just dropped to 3-5 inches. I am saying 1 inch. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-15 at 7.47.45 AM.png

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We are still only at 26° in Crossville. TWC has our high at 36° with 3-5" of snow. I don't think either one of those things are happening today lol. Maybe the 36° part but if anything falls outta the sky this far east it'll likely be rain, frozen or not.

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