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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting aspect of this map....it is similar in what it shows for the Euro Jackpot area vs. the Para GFS (6-8" for those folks)  for the same time frame but on the Para this area is the screw zone with higher amounts north and south....

That is 100% correct! Para was a biggy snowstorm north and south of the Rt. 30 corridor...Euro filled the center of the sandwich and removed the buns. 

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Three other Euro points...

 

1) The primary SLP is so weak that it never shows on the Pivotal maps.  One has to play the "find the bagginess game".  Even when I zoom in there is no "L" until the Low has transferred off the coast

2) Monday's 1-3" refresher is still in play.

3-The majority of the Non mountainous Continental US is above freezing at 7PM on February 23rd but its only in the mid 50's in N Central Florida at that same time frame.  

 

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Euro continues the drying trend I alluded to earlier with the GFS and RGEM.  The primary Low is just, blah, doesn't pack enough punch.  Even when it hits the coast there's nothing remotely resembling any type of bombing out or real intensification.  But hey, should still be a solid few hours in the morning.

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43 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

It's really not *that* bad.

Ysunm8X.png&key=1fff43cf057276fa3d17338c

4-8 has been my thoughts since I bought in and got chips late yesterday. Will likely tick north a pinch and that’s where it’ll ride IMO. 
trough axis and progressive theme was always supportive of WAA event but notsomuch of a bombing coastal. 

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27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Three other Euro points...

 

1) The primary SLP is so weak that it never shows on the Pivotal maps.  One has to play the "find the bagginess game".  Even when I zoom in there is no "L" until the Low has transferred off the coast

2) Monday's 1-3" refresher is still in play.

3-The majority of the Non mountainous Continental US is above freezing at 7PM on February 23rd but its only in the mid 50's in N Central Florida at that same time frame.  

 

I'll bite on point #3 - we've been lacking a large temperature gradient for much of the winter that has hampered the development of large storms. This is an overexaggerated example - as we roll into March, I'd anticipate a bigger range (gradient) and the opportunity for larger storms to present itself.  

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I'd love to be sitting in the office at CTP right now. You have WSW for the majority of your CWA and guidance suggests dropping to WWA for the southern 2/3 of the CWA and nothing for the rest, but I don't even know if that's allowed. What do you do for those areas? Issue a HWO? Downgrade to WWA even though that may not verify? Tough call. 

 

Their silence this afternoon is pretty noticable. 

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14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I'd love to be sitting in the office at CTP right now. You have WSW for the majority of your CWA and guidance suggests dropping to WWA for the southern 2/3 of the CWA and nothing for the rest, but I don't even know if that's allowed. What do you do for those areas? Issue a HWO? Downgrade to WWA even though that may not verify? Tough call. 

 

Their silence this afternoon is pretty noticable. 

I say they update between 3:30 -4:00. They want to take a good look at the king first. (NAM) :) 

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6-10” is a nice storm but mixing aside, this has been modeled for the SE 1/2 of pa since yesterday.  My bud said last night “hey the cabin is in for 6-8”. I told him no way that happens and we’ll b lucky to get 3-4 in Tioga. I stand by that.  Still think 4-8 is reasonable nw to se. nothing wrong with that at all. 
furthermore 10” in what’s been looking like a 12-18 hr event is nothing to complain about.  If we lose coastal it’s a 12 hrish event. That said 4-8 ” is reasonable IMO. 

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