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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Awesome, let us know your final tally!

I will, I did achieve double digits finally. Just call @2001kx and I the clean-up crew haha.
 

Think he said over in the storm thread he had 4.8” new. I’m prob getting close to at least 3” but it’s blowing and drifting like crazy.

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9 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I will, I did achieve double digits finally. Just call @2001kx and I the clean-up crew haha.
 

Think he said over in the storm thread he had 4.8” new. I’m prob getting close to at least 3” but it’s blowing and drifting like crazy.

Was close to 5.5" when all was said and done.

No clue what my final total is for the storm but i would guess 10-12"

A very different but fun storm.

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3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Any thoughts on this coming Sunday? Are we in for another snow event?

Just parsing over overnighters and several models show the northern stream vort Mag called out yesterday and it’s dropping in for Super Bowl Sunday. CMC has it but Gfs misses the phase (but still is close enough to keep an eye on.
Next Thursday looks good on several models and verbatim could be a good one. 
Overall pattern looks quite wintery and I feel good about next couple weeks. 
I’m going to enjoy this period for a bit before I start digging into long range beyond mid Feb. looks fun. 

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ICON verbatim (I know I know), is MY idea of an acceptable Miller B track.  Primary to central WVA then nice transfer under is. 

Yeah, typical LSV dryslot for a wee bit, but I'd sign for that loop every day and 2x on Sundays....especially Super ones!!

 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

When in doubt trust the ICON. Yep showed that yesterday as well. 

Yeah I know, but this one is a day closer and a nice event that has some support, so eyebrows should be raised at the minimum.  Its not on its own, and for those that say toss it, we had some that were tossing snowmaggeddon that some are still digging out from, as they thought it would be too far east. 

Were here to discuss, and looks like we got some discussin to do win lose or draw...thats all I'm sayin.

Love it.

 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I know, but this one is a day closer and a nice event that has some support, so eyebrows should be raised at the minimum.  Its not on its own, and for those that say toss it, we had some that were tossing snowmaggeddon that some are still digging out from, as they thought it would be too far east. 

Were here to discuss, and looks like we got some discussin to do win lose or draw...thats all I'm sayin.

Love it.

 

This is such an active pattern on all models right now. 

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

This is such an active pattern on all models right now. 

Yeah it sure is.  Fun times ahead.  One benefit is that cold looks to hold and after Sunday we get a respite from the cutters for the next few storms.  Yeah they may be suppressed, but as Canderson or someone suggested the other day....a cleaner storm pattern w/ less issues to worry about. 

I'm ready for "clean" A's to come n get us.

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Dunno what to think.  Euro had Sunday event till last night, then suppressed the hell outta it after several straight runs.  

Go look at nooner CMC and tell me that isnt a parade of storms?  Spacing too tight for bombs, but verbatim an active look.

Guessing everyone is tired or afraid to discuss because of the model mayhem.  lol

Rest up gang.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dunno what to think.  Euro had Sunday event till last night, then suppressed the hell outta it after several straight runs.  

Go look at nooner CMC and tell me that isnt a parade of storms?  Spacing too tight for bombs, but verbatim an active look.

Guessing everyone is tired or afraid to discuss because of the model mayhem.  lol

Rest up gang.

 

 

Our good friends over at Mt. Holly aren't enthused at all about Sunday (even for the coast) and here's why:

Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an
eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s
still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect
over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as
the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low
pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the
ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak
back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for
changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the
region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the
region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10
degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the
teens.
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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Our good friends over at Mt. Holly aren't enthused at all about Sunday (even for the coast) and here's why:

Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an
eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s
still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect
over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as
the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low
pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the
ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak
back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for
changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the
region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the
region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10
degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the
teens.

I read that earlier.  If one goes to Sunday and looks at 500/mslp panels, souther gets the nod, but 12NAM has LP in midwest and Icon has what i shared.  GFS/CMC say no thanks but arent out of correctable range at 4 days.  I've also read that the arctic hounds dont look as stout as earlier depictions, so that could argue for a more northerly correction once again. 

Just throwing out stuff to chew on for lunch.

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18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I read that earlier.  If one goes to Sunday and looks at 500/mslp panels, souther gets the nod, but 12NAM has LP in midwest and Icon has what i shared.  GFS/CMC say no thanks but arent out of correctable range at 4 days.  I've also read that the arctic hounds dont look as stout as earlier depictions, so that could argue for a more northerly correction once again. 

Just throwing out stuff to chew on for lunch.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday has my excitement as well as depicted on the GFS a little warm for our area but an interesting setup for sure. It seems the real artic cold is wavering back now a bit but we just need to hang onto the cold enough like this last storm. 

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19 minutes ago, canderson said:

We have a better shot at a sloppy 1/2” Friday early than Sunday I think. 

At least Fridays 50's are gone, so we can save precious snowpack.

for Super Sunday ICON is on an island....and its named Fantasy....Was hoping the Euro kept something but it definitely trended away from anything.  Mid next week is still looking like we have something to ponder.  

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A quick view of the 12Z GFS from a temperature perspective shows that after the arctic front passes through here Sun/Mon, we stay continuously below freezing for high temps from Monday 2/8 until Tuesday, Feb 16.  That would be a pretty significant stretch of cold spending 8 days below freezing.  That's long enough to get some decent ice going on the rivers and creeks.  Of course the model gives us virtually no precip after the frontal passage this Sunday through to 2/17, so suppression city seems to be the rule.  It also looks like it delays the arctic frontal passage by at least 12 hours until Sunday night.

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Lot of uncertainty in the models in the mid-range. Euro just went from plenty cold to straight up rainer between 0 to 12z runs with the wave it had out around D7. Actually it seems like all guidance really backed off the cold in this particular timeframe where there is that potential following wave after whatever materializes Sunday.  It does look like this is going to be a gradient pattern setting up as guidance isn't completely dumping the PV into the east like it was a few days ago. Going to likely be some back and forth with where this gradient sets up. 

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

OH. My bad. Sorry. Someone had just twitter posted this so I thought it was for this Sunday. 

I figured haha, that's how big storm rumors get spread. People on social media don't read details like the date of the map and share blindly. 

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44 minutes ago, paweather said:

 

42 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That's for the storm that just happened. 

 

https://paweatheraction.com/about-us

 

I'll take my weather advice from the pros, thanks.

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