MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs coming in northwest at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming in northwest at 66 It’s going to hit. Look at the t-storms blowing up in the SE, it’s going to pump the ridge and force it north 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming in northwest at 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s going to hit. Look at the t-storms blowing up in the SE, it’s going to pump the ridge and force it north Better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS OP beginning to look very similar with position of LP - waiting for the Canadian.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Better than 6z I don’t think it’s a big storm, something like 2-6, more towards the coast/LI than inland, but a storm none the less, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS OP beginning to look very similar with position of LP - waiting for the Canadian.... Cmc should be a miss based off the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc should be a miss based off the RGEM late to the party maybe ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Coastal grazer on new gfs for us. Mid Atlantic gets hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Para is a tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Coastal grazer on new gfs for us. Mid Atlantic gets hit good. a 995 in that position has a fairly good chance of delivering here............ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think it’s a big storm, something like 2-6, more towards the coast/LI than inland, but a storm none the less, You’re usually right about storms but last storm you said would favor coast and you got 2 feet. This could trend west but right now favors the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 A couple of inches of refresher would be nice up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ICON came a little east. GFS/NAM/ICON look pretty similar now in terms of storm track (NAM being most robust) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: ICON came a little east. GFS/NAM/ICON look pretty similar now in terms of storm track (NAM being most robust) It wouldn't take much to get a bigger snowfall. The ridge has to flex its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: ICON came a little east. GFS/NAM/ICON look pretty similar now in terms of storm track (NAM being most robust) still plenty of time for adjustments in the positioning of the precip field and intensity of............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Para is a tick west Good sign IMO. Hopefully we can trend it and amp it enough for a 3-6 type event down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It wouldn't take much to get a bigger snowfall. The ridge has to flex its muscles. Honestly I haven’t been able to get my car out, I’d almost rather a 2-4/3-6 pretty snowfall to whiten the snowpack than another mammoth blizzard right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly I haven’t been able to get my car out, I’d almost rather a 2-4/3-6 pretty snowfall to whiten the snowpack than another mammoth blizzard right now Same I'm in the same position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly I haven’t been able to get my car out, I’d almost rather a 2-4/3-6 pretty snowfall to whiten the snowpack than another mammoth blizzard right now this thing is a fast mover the ceiling is likely 4-8 inches IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly I haven’t been able to get my car out, I’d almost rather a 2-4/3-6 pretty snowfall to whiten the snowpack than another mammoth blizzard right now 'almost' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: this thing is a fast mover the ceiling is likely 4-8 inches IMO I say 6-10 or even 8-12. It only takes a few hours of intense snows to get those amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12Z GEM misses the fuller phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12Z GEFS precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice snowstorm next weekend on the gfs The GFS is slowest to get rid of the SE ridging and shove the arctic air mass way south. The CMC basically does it by Wednesday. I’m not sure if I buy the GFS idea. I think the threats after midweek might be SE US snow falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is slowest to get rid of the SE ridging and shove the arctic air mass way south. The CMC basically does it by Wednesday. I’m not sure if I buy the GFS idea. I think the threats after midweek might be SE US snow falls NAO is rising so I would agree with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Para for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too many forums I'm on Getting confused start a thread here for next weekend 2/13-14- you are confusing matters here in this one - thanks......that being said I don't think Walt will be fully on board with this weekends event till the Canadian comes on board - and if the EURO is still out to sea at 12Z -well........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NAO is rising so I would agree with the GFS The NAO rise is sort of fake. The calculation used for the indices sees that funky almost west-east oriented ridge poking towards the Azores from the Caribbean on the ensembles after 2-10 which is maybe leading to the false calculation of a positive NAO because that ridge coupled with the Greenland and Baffin ridge is driving screaming flow over the Atlantic in between. The pattern though is still blocked up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The UKMET might be more like the CMC. I don’t have specific graphics yet but the 72-96 positions suggest a near miss to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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