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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm

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Light to moderate rate currently

I got a uniform 2.5" on my measuring spots. I put a second board out to clear at 24 hrs tomorrow morning. A lot of this afternoon had pretty light snow but 2.5" in about 15 hrs is definitely playing the slow game lol. 

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54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Back to the discussion at hand, namely the ongoing storm...

I still think the focus of the biggest totals will be that Lehigh Valley area of far eastern PA in northern half of NJ/NYC. And really the NAM still reflected that.. but the 0z run really hooked up with the major deform band reaching far back deep into C-PA. I'm a bit suspect of such a widespread area of a foot plus so far back like the 12k NAM has, but I do think the deform shield is probably being undermodelled on near term guidance like the HRRR. But remember.. HRRR goes out to 18 hours except for the 0,6,12,18z runs and we're still not really at the time when this deform from the deepening coastal gets flung back into PA at the end of the regular HRRR runs. And I'm more looking at other short term guidance for anything out past that anyways. The major features (850/700 lows) are well placed to go along with a very robust 850mb jet pointed into eastern PA so there's likely going to be a stripe of more significant totals.. just not sure on how widespread. 

It's funny. Way back when I lived in the Lehigh Valley, a lot of the best snowstorms were in the Poconos and the coal region. Now, after 5 years in AZ, the past 20 years most times featured the best snowstorms in the Lehigh Valley and not so severe (relatively speaking) up here.

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Here's my daily report summary from Carlisle for 1/31/21.  Total snowfall = 3.7".  Total Liquid Equivalent = 0.34".  Snow to Liquid Ratio = 10.9 : 1.  With only light snow mainly falling between 9:30pm and midnight, only an additional 0.5" was recorded over that 2.5 hr period.  The measurement at 11:00pm was 3.6" (which I did not report).

Have a good night all.  Looking forward to seeing you again in the morning.  I hope to get up by 7:30 or so with my next update.


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2 hours ago, canderson said:

GFS is tucked with little NW precip field. Don’t get it. 


It is all about how far west the model runs are sending the upper level dynamics - the runs that are sending it west are the ones spitting out the higher numbers on the snow maps and the ones that are not look like this GFS map or the much lower HRRR solution.  The upper level dry air showing up so well on current water vapor imagery already as well as the model runs worries me (as in need under banding for good snow or face dry slotting), but will have to see how things shake out tomorrow.




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57 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm going to try not to panic, but that dry slot pushed farther north than I thought it would. I figured we'd have light snow throughout the night until the coastal took over.

Starting to fill in here in Lanco. Should be up your way soon. 

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