psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: PSU gets nailed, but I know he isn't going to like the run...lol We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I hope we didn't bullseye too early. Def don't need a north trend here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. Yes we are. Shift this whole thing 75 miles S/SE and we all win. As it is, as depicted anyway, it's a nailbiter for many in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Yes we are. Shift this whole thing 75 miles S/SE and we all win. As it is, as depicted anyway, it's a nailbiter for many in this forum. 6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, mattskiva said: I hope we didn't bullseye too early. Def don't need a north trend here If it trends north we'll likely do better on the front end...It's not a win-win...but some consolation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Tonights Euro seems most likely to be accurate with the usual spots jackpotting. No surprise. Central NVA jackpots rarely ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty dramatic north trend tbh. The jackpot zone on tonight’s Euro (Penn) got almost nothing in last night’s run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Oh oh....first sign of the usual dc Miller b screw job by the euro. These 00z runs are killing us. This was my biggest fear....not the suppressed. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. And you said suppression was the most likely fail? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Regardless of how it plays out it seems every major models insists on a 48 hour event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re flirting with the coastal getting going too late that’s my only concern. I would say this is the most valid concern for the whole event. Miller B's/Hybrids are ALWAYS a tight rope balance for the Mid Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Oh oh....first sign of the usual dc Miller b screw job by the euro. These 00z runs are killing us. This was my biggest fear....not the suppressed. Worst case scenario is a suppressed first wave and then dryslot...but maybe still 2-4"...I don't want to think about it, but it's DC...right now im optimistic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 EURO not locked in yet, 30 miles or so either way 4 days out will make a huge difference....good night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: THAT was one hell of a run for much of the sub-forum. Despite the bit of mixing during part of the coastal for the cities, everyone is puking dendrites at some point during the height of the coastal. US15 to I81 from Winchester to Harrisburg could be the deformation zone on this run verbatim. The whole area gets walloped in all. 1'+ for a ton of the sub. Even with the slightly farther north track of the surface low into southern Ohio, the goods are still delivered. I liked seeing a consistent hold of the ULL as it crosses into the Ohio Valley as well, strengthening again as it moves east. The 7H low cuts right over the Potomac. Just a slightly further south depiction, and it's blockbuster for basically everyone. A great run Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 7 am Tues And the scary part is I think the QPF it's showing over PA is too light given the firehose. Should be a massive area of 30+ from Garret county to Binghamton . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here if this trend North doesn’t halt big time by tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If it trends north we'll likely do better on the front end...It's not a win-win...but some consolation This! These are rare to see, but there's two ways to actually score here. There's an easy way to score a nice low-end WSW criteria snowfall with the WAA piece ahead of the surface low into the OH Valley. The antecedent airmass ahead is ripe for the picking and is something everyone should be rooting for. I know you know how Miller B's work around back home. It'll be a tight rope walk as usual, but the prize could be epic. The key is keep the primary from going too far north if you ONLY want the coastal. Need the confluence to the NE to hold it's ground and the surface low to not tuck back over land like the Euro. That caused some boundary layer issues for about 6-12 hrs east of the fall line. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then One more shift like this one and half the subforum would be looking at a dramatically scaled down event...a few inches of WAA snow and then snizzle. AS DEPICTED it's still great. But yes, when 50 miles makes the difference between 2-3 inches and 15, that's nailbiter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection? Correct. 7H over CHO up to Fredericksburg is the ticket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Shift the storm 30 miles SSE and that 24+ jackpot is right over us. Seasonal trend says not so fast however. I was never worried about suppression. I was worried about Harrisburg to Boston getting crushed. This setup reminds me of many classic Miller b’s that dumped 18+” on the New York metro area in the early 2000s when I lived up that way. Not all of them miss us down here, but some certainly do - especially from dc south. I’d take the euro / cmc blend and run with it but boy, are we playing with fire here But yet...hasn't the seasonal trend been suppression? (especially this month, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: If it trends north we'll likely do better on the front end...It's not a win-win...but some consolation I'm 30+ miles NW of DC - I would rather see a stronger coastal with mixing along 95 - pretty sure every really big storm we've had here had mixing near 95, while we remained all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Correct, but the concern is that every Euro run over the last 3 runs has pushed the higher totals north. I hope that trend doesn’t continue tomorrow. ALWAYS the concern with these setups. It's a tight rope walk for the area. Euro/CMC/Para GFS are all good for the WAA piece. CMC is like the dividing line between the Euro and GFS. IF I was to bet where the best snow will occur, I predict Rt30 to the PA Turnpike with 50 miles either side being well within the clear for a MECS. Need a little more of a southward trend for DC/NoVA. Miller B life 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: But yet...hasn't the seasonal trend been suppression? (especially this month, lol) I think the December storm that showed 40”for us within 100 hours only for it to snow 7-8” and it snow 40+“ in Binghamton is haunting me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Guess I'll stay up for the ensembles...Should be in range in 5-10 min 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 @MillvilleWx the h5 progression is beautiful. I have a feeling when the EPS comes out this op was a northern solution in the envelope. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong? The mid-level dynamics need to a be a bit further south in order to cash with the coastal. 850-700mb is the area you watch for low passage as this is where the best lift for dendritic growth occurs and you see better banding structures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Surface temps look a bit too warm on this run. Would imply a very wet snow which is unusual for up this way during coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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