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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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29 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

I can name at least three systems just this winter that were pegged as big dogs on the Euro (even a day or two out!), only to fizzle into sloppy, wet, utterly forgettable snow showers.

Of course, I live in Fort Wayne, IN, a place where storms come to die a swift and painless death.

 Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled.  Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage. 

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17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled.  Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage. 

Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! 

Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. 

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4 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! 

Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. 

 I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different?  That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge.  Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers.

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6 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! 

Then the December 15th event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. 

Just so you know snow maps don’t come The model.  They come the vendor.  Some of the algorithms are weird.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

 I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different?  That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge.  Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers.

Oh, I was just commenting about northern Indiana, particularly NE where we don't get much lake action. Both ice and snow have been exaggerated in recent memory on the euro, but clearly that's not the case everywhere! 

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20 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Sadly the good ol' reliable ICON is not on board

Der sturm ist kaputt

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18Z Euro stronger w the northern stream again. Doesn’t go out far enough but would almost certainly end up farther south than the 12z run. 
 

Respect the west-based -NAO?

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My way too early guess for ice would be for a band of 0.25"+, perhaps up to 0.5"... probably between I-80 and I-70.  Not that entire area but somewhere between there.  CIPS has decent support for several hours of freezing rain, and it's GFS based and may be underplaying.  Plus looking at this setup conceptually, I see little reason why there wouldn't be a band of decent icing.  It's a pretty typical look.

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I'm not seeing stronger with northern stream, if we're referring to the PV lobe over Manitoba. Unless I'm looking at it wrong it looks like it's a hair west northwest of 12z and there's subtle higher heights than 12z over eastern Ontario. To me biggest change is the shortwave is a little slower and more positively tilted. Could get to that farther south outcome anyway but I'm not sure it's due to the northern stream.

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm not seeing stronger with northern stream, if we're referring to the PV lobe over Manitoba. Unless I'm looking at it wrong it looks like it's a hair west northwest of 12z and there's subtle higher heights than 12z over eastern Ontario. To me biggest change is the shortwave is a little slower and more positively tilted. Could get to that farther south outcome anyway but I'm not sure it's due to the northern stream.

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Yeah I thought that 90 hour looked good.  Without nao we’d be raining 

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Looks fine to me. Surface low is a tad weaker. Then again, we’re still 4 days away from this thing so, there’s that 

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Yeah I thought that 90 hour looked good.  Without nao we’d be raining 
Been thinking the same thing, feel pretty confident that sans blocking this would be a much warmer outcome. The blocking could yield a failure mode, but the heights ahead of the wave are already pretty amped, with no block, they really pump and SLP track is probably over the LOT CWA.

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm not seeing stronger with northern stream, if we're referring to the PV lobe over Manitoba. Unless I'm looking at it wrong it looks like it's a hair west northwest of 12z and there's subtle higher heights than 12z over eastern Ontario. To me biggest change is the shortwave is a little slower and more positively tilted. Could get to that farther south outcome anyway but I'm not sure it's due to the northern stream.

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Yeah the Southwestern shortwave is def slower too. I see  a more expansive upper low over MB that is about 60 m deeper too. Best I can tell the confluence would be a hair farther south. I guess my point was based on the MB wave trending stronger and bigger the past few runs. If that trend continues, suppression would probably continue. 

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah the Southwestern shortwave is def slower too. I see  a more expansive upper low over MB that is about 60 m deeper too. Best I can tell the confluence would be a hair farther south. I guess my point was based on the MB wave trending stronger and bigger the past few runs. If that trend continues, suppression would probably continue. 

:ph34r:

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It’s also important to point out these short waves rounding the south side of the NAO block are in a data sparse region and will be until the weekend. These go on to make up the MB wave that affects where confluence is, etc. I would normally trust the Euro 4DVAR to catch everything but in this case I’m not sold. Probably the best bet as usual at this range is a blend of current guidance. 

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Re: sampling, will we have data on the wave tonight? If not, when will we have some good data? 

Some possible for the 12z models tomorrow, I believe.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Bumped NW...
bd91e0542dc5a8343939cb1c5aafab55.jpg


.

A lot of strong members but the mean is kept in check because there are such varying placements of the snow swath. Still a few duds but not many.

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9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Usually when there is strong blocking the storms tend to trend south. 

Usually when you live in Indianapolis and the euro prints a frozen precip max 300 miles north of you you hope storms trend south 

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Some possible for the 12z models tomorrow, I believe.
Yup, looked like should be partial for 12z and should be full sampling for 00z tomorrow. The PV lobe southwest of the block that's also a key player is up over NW Territories.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Usually when you live in Indianapolis and the euro prints a frozen precip max 300 miles north of you you hope storms trend south 

I was being objective in my analysis ^_^

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