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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg

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Now we just need Ji and Osfan to come in here and say they’re not interested in a light event - as if we live in Bangor, ME and don’t blink as less than a foot.

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Just now, Ji said:

Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg

They both went towards the CMC?

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Just now, Ji said:

Gfs went towards euro and euro went towards gfs. This looks like a max potential 4-8 event with 12 in leesburg

I mean, the max potential remains 2-3 feet. And still a low end of 0. We are still 5 days out. But at least Euro caved and agreed there is a storm. GFS win from where I sit.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

They both went towards the CMC?

Yeah, hopefully meeting in the middle with a widespread moderate snow event.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the main difference I see with gfs. That feature is much weaker and not affecting the flow as much on the gfs 

0C62714A-C4B2-46EC-9E1D-9A5CE8B45A1A.thumb.jpeg.969b5b7d53626f22322e833b4839d182.jpeg

ETA: that feature washes out in future frames and isn’t much of an impact down the line. 

That is the ULL from the first storm and it did not treat our high kindly.

 

7OVX4fx.gif

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The h5 track is perfect. And i would say it got half way to what we need wrt amplitude to get a nice snow event from this.  The h5 dives from Chicago through Ohio and across VA it just doesn’t close off in time for us. 
ACC5FBBA-5047-44B1-93A1-2EFD420D4912.gif.054851e011ec4246b71ef9606e877b66.gif

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I believe a congratulations is in order for a good portion of VA. Been a long time coming, you guys deserve this jackpot. And a congrats to DC for their first warning criteria in a long time. Im out up this way, but will track with you guys (if permitted) to share in  enjoying your excitement.

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image.thumb.png.b2377e449085aaeae5f0a6b020bc1d36.pngIt is pretty good step towards the GFS.  Below is a comparison of 00Z 500h and the 12Z.  Note how much more ridging takes place ahead of the vort and associated trof and what has happened over Maine.  The latter has relaxed allowing more room for our approaching trough.  If it relaxes a tad more we might get development a little farther west and more precipitation.  There is that pesky impulse ahead of the trof,  if it were to minor out quicker that would also help. 

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Just now, usedtobe said:

image.thumb.png.b2377e449085aaeae5f0a6b020bc1d36.pngIt is pretty good step towards the GFS.  Below is a comparison of 00Z 500h and the 12Z.  Note how much more ridging takes place ahead of the vort and associated trof and what has happened over Maine.  The latter has relaxed allowing more room for our approaching trough.  If it relaxes a tad more we might get development a little farther west and more precipitation.  There is that pesky impulse ahead of the trof,  if it were to minor out quicker that would also help. 

This is the post i was waiting for.   It’s gonna snow y’all. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is the post i was waiting for.   It’s gonna snow y’all. 

Really the only post we need, tbh.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB Can snow maps 12Z v 0z, again going wrong direction.

0D1B9177-EFBC-49EB-A30A-085C4A2ABD37.png

2B3AE24A-4AEC-4710-A06E-EECD4AF47E75.png

If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup

43 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I know I’m late to this as we wait in the euro, but  that precip shield, that wind direction, that low location, the date, and then you drop that it is 37/36 at DCA.  Unreal.

22F93713-11CC-4476-90FC-5176CC9E2413.thumb.jpeg.5117f94f49967b9540d2ef5ccbcdae24.jpeg

I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The h5 track is perfect. And i would say it got half way to what we need wrt amplitude to get a nice snow event from this.  The h5 dives from Chicago through Ohio and across VA it just doesn’t close off in time for us. 
ACC5FBBA-5047-44B1-93A1-2EFD420D4912.gif.054851e011ec4246b71ef9606e877b66.gif

Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb.

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3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

 

If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup

I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose

Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb.

Yes but compare it to previous runs it was getting there. I don’t think there is much chance it goes negative given the flow in the Atlantic but we need it to close off sooner. It happens a little too late this run but way way closer. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but compare it to previous runs it was getting there. I don’t think there is much chance it goes negative given the flow in the Atlantic but we need it to close off sooner. It happens a little too late this run but way way closer. 

Hard not to be happy with that run. Way better than 00Z and trending the right way.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Hard not to be happy with that run. Way better than 00Z and trending the right way.

Sure it is....if you’re one of the weenies who just looks at clown snow maps verbatim lol

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24 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

 

If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup

I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose

Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb.

I agree. Seems too flat. Want it to dig and go negative and close off.

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23 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z EPS also appears to have a stronger system than 6z.  QPF is improved as well.  
 

 

EB7CBFB3-4472-456C-AA32-C55FC8B0DFDD.png

Improvement.  Baby steps . 5 days for a Couple more bumps nw . 

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Got this from my forum and apologies if this has been posted

BLUF, use current model data with caution....

"All six weather balloon launch sites along the West Coast and northwest Mexico did not report data this morning, for various reasons. Thus, the major system that is going to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday night into Tuesday has limited data for forecasters and models to work with.

Ugh. Use all morning and afternoon models with even more caution."

From Gilbert Sebenste

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