• Member Statistics

    16,543
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malcolm M
    Newest Member
    Malcolm M
    Joined
WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

Recommended Posts

Just now, SnowLover22 said:

Pretty much as good as a signal as you can get at this lead time. 

We want it to be showing an 880 mb mean not a 1002 mean

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, snowfan said:

And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. 

        Some of us had two follow-up snowfalls.     B)

        That Friday was another synoptic snowstorm, but there was a vort that Tuesday afternoon that put down a band of heavy snow across DC and the east side of town.   I got another 6" out of that unexpected event.

 

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The control is a full on Virginia special.. costal is pivoting bands up through DC at this time with temps in the mid 20s. Nuts

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-snow_24hr-2202400.thumb.png.9da8cfb914875fffab3afabbe517a144.png

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. 

 

18z control.png

If it went out to 168, it'd be a HUGE hit. There's also 0c 850s almost right down to the LP. 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty good disco from Mount Holly-

The High will slowly lift NE on Sunday as low pressure moves into the Ohio valley, and this system should follow the typical evolution with the interior low occluding and a secondary low beginning to take shape along the coastal front to our south late Sunday into Monday. At this stage, guidance essentially proposes two solutions in terms of the evolution of this system:

1.) A fairly progressive system in which the primary low reaches the Great Lakes before the "energy transfer" with the coastal system occurs (the coastal low doesn`t really get going until it is near our latitude in that scenario). This results in warm-advection driven wintry precipitation at onset which then changes to rain/mix for at least part of our area later in the event. With this solution most of the precipitation would occur late Sunday, with lighter precipitation persisting into Monday- Tuesday as the mid-lvl wave passes.

2.) A slower solution in which the energy transfer takes place upstream of our area, and the coastal low becomes dominant south of the area. The mid-lvl wave then further amplifies and closes off near the east coast on Monday, which then results in the surface low tracking slowly N-NE Monday into Tuesday. This solution could result in a fairly long duration precipitation event for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (at present most favored just south of us), and has a more potential from a winter weather standpoint given the longer duration, and more favorable thermal profiles with the low remaining to our south. While this scenario has the biggest "hit" potential, it also has some "miss" potential, as it is possible the the low doesn`t close off until the system is over the Atlantic which would track the system east of the area, resulting in our area only being on the fringe of any precipitation. Given the general trends/biases in guidance in the blocking regime that has prevailed the last couple months, tend to give a bit more weight to the slower/more amplified solution, so slowed down PoPS a bit. Also, despite the tendency for suppressed systems missing us to the south in this regime, this system will likely be amplifying near our region with diving northern-stream energy helping to reinforce it. Consequently made the decision to bump PoPs slightly to the likely range at least for the southern half of the area on Monday, but capped at 60 given the "miss" scenario described above.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowDreamer said:

Control looks like a solid setup, already 6-12" in VA and slp is still south of the VA/NC border @144. 

 

18z control.png

Wow wow wow and plenty to go

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Look at that comma head tapping moisture out of the gulf. Love to see this! (Control)

eta: Heyo! 100th post :drunk:

 

18z cont pwat.png

That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in.  December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

That comma head will drop a foot of snow in less than 10 hours on those lucky enough to cash in.  December 2009 had a similar feature if i remember correctly

It's a common feature in our bigguns once the LP really starts dropping. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

 

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Anyweather said:

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

 

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.

I'd be feeling decent between I-66 and PA Route 30 for a warning level event right now. Set your expectations low since this is a Miller B in a La Nina. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

Is that good?

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

 

18z cont H5.png

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

500mb comparison to 12z that @Wentzadelphia posted elsewhere looks to me like the 18z EPS is more likely to capture the surface low and get a stall and stack. Northern stream energy is diving into our main low at 144hrs and the whole trough is deeper with more ridging ahead of it over the Atlantic. Pretty amazing to see this on a D6 mean. 

Yep...deeper and sharper trough with less confluence inhibiting :weenie:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control looks like its moving due north at 144 ...slowly 

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.   

  • Sad 2
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. 

The 12Z OP has started phasing with that bit of energy by then and 18Z Control hasn't, but I think the control is just a little slower judging from the ULL and the SLP position. I think it might still get to about the same place. Something to watch for in the 00Z run. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.