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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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11 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

This makes me sad  :(   

Selfishly for MBY, I’d love for the 12z NAM to verify with its 2.5” of rain.  Trends still seem to move the precipitation track northward compared to yesterday’s runs.  I’m not convinced that’ll pan out though.  I think that I-85 will be the cutoff line with most precipitation to the south.

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Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Chilly Independence Day?

 

 

20E4BB7F-5BF4-4931-A170-A12AA0BEB6EE.png

And wet the previous few days before independence day. For once  the western part of the state is running behind the eastern part this month 

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52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With the cutoff low in the Ohio valley, we could enter into an extended wet period as well. Below average and wet, I’ll take it going into the peak of summer 

Euro says the front will push through all the way to the Gulf coast 

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7 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

RAH forecasts 1.3” of rain IMBY from Thursday afternoon to early Saturday morning.  I’m definitely taking the under on that one.  Last couple of Euro runs maintain the anti-precipitation shield over my house.

GSP is giving me about the same for Friday. mby shares your shield  :(  

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

GSP is giving me about the same for Friday. mby shares your shield  :(  

For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east.  I’ve been in a dry corridor.  I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain.  But the models are hinting otherwise.  Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes.  I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”.  You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see.  :D

The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east.

33BA9A7F-FEF0-4994-A1A3-98F98AC95C1C.jpeg

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45 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east.  I’ve been in a dry corridor.  I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain.  But the models are hinting otherwise.  Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes.  I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”.  You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see.  :D

The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east.

33BA9A7F-FEF0-4994-A1A3-98F98AC95C1C.jpeg

I'm right on the edge of the darkest shade of brown in WNC 

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15 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That little white dot in the middle of all the brown is mby. It’s feast or famine around the south, but thank gawd it’s not as bad as the west is currently :( 

Misery loves company.  My house is under the arrow.  The brown dot matches the color of my grass.

But you’re right.  At least we’re not too worried about wildfires.

6B5B026F-7FA9-4A07-98A0-F8E6D3FE550F.jpeg

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2 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

For weeks now, I’ve been used to storms coming from the southwest and dropping the most intense rain to my west and east.  I’ve been in a dry corridor.  I assumed that since this week’s front is approaching from the northwest there’s no way I could miss out on a good soaking rain.  But the models are hinting otherwise.  Most of the intense rain will form to my east after the front passes.  I’ll end up with a 0.20” light shower of Friday while the Triangle will end up with 2.20”.  You might think I’m joking, but just wait and see.  :D

The updated 30-day and 60-day precipitation map shows how dry the western areas of NC and SC have been compared to the east.

33BA9A7F-FEF0-4994-A1A3-98F98AC95C1C.jpeg

Meh; 3 plus years of constant monsoon - this a blip I'm happy for. Still just over 3 inches for the month, and over 30 for the year, which is still above avg for mby.

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 I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least 

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least 

My wife and daughter got the bright idea to run down to Myrtle Beach for a quick trip from this coming Wednesday to Friday.  Not the best timing.  I tried to tell her to check the forecast, but when she booked it, she said the NHC cone stopped in Georgia.  :rolleyes:  (She’s a CPA and not much of a weather junkie.)

I’m not sure what they’d run into driving down Wednesday afternoon and coming back Friday morning.  It looks to be a fast moving system regardless. Some models showed a weakening system and clearing out for a decent Thursday at the beach.  Other models showed some trouble.  She can cancel, but needs to do so by late today to get a full refund.

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