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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO low position did shift east slightly compared to 18Z.

7EF84DCB-77E3-410E-8E18-E427267F8CA1.png

1862F16B-698D-413C-A9BF-C9557EE59EA6.png

Slight, no doubt. However...a track on the Other side of the mouth of bay can make a decent difference for C MD and NoVa

the low is both weaker and further east. Both positives for that area 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

My final call for the 81 Corridor.

Harrisonburg to Woodstock - 5-10 Then ice

Woodstock to Front Royal - 8-12 Some ice

Front Royal to Martinsburg- 12-18 Very little ice

Martinsburg to Hagerstown- 14-20 All snow

 

22/20 Dew point on the rise for some reason. Talk to you all tomorrow.

Solid call. 22/20 here as well. Dews up 2 degrees. Meep. Sleep well sir, tomorrow comes the mauling

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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

@psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay?

The preponderance of evidence says that’s about what happens. But I suppose there is enough random odd pieces of guidance that don’t that maybe there is that miracle chance. But that would be an awful big error for this range. Jan 2000 level fail considering the advancements in NWP since then. 

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8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later?

Also very curious if anybody can give some insight. Not saying it “cant” happen, per say, but I am very curious from a meteorological standpoint what would cause a fairly quick moving storm, in a progressive pattern, to take that sharp NW turn just to take another sharp turn NE. Wild. 

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s a ne move misread as n-nw then abruptly east instead of smooth and steady ne 

Wonder how that affects warming in the upper level on the model. That track NW has to be cranking 850s up the bay. If it took a steady NE track, I wonder if that would translate any differently 

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