psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: @psuhoffman - any shot the euro has that wrong and it doesn’t make the NW turn into the bay? The preponderance of evidence says that’s about what happens. But I suppose there is enough random odd pieces of guidance that don’t that maybe there is that miracle chance. But that would be an awful big error for this range. Jan 2000 level fail considering the advancements in NWP since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later? Also very curious if anybody can give some insight. Not saying it “cant” happen, per say, but I am very curious from a meteorological standpoint what would cause a fairly quick moving storm, in a progressive pattern, to take that sharp NW turn just to take another sharp turn NE. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! Looking like marquis brown’s routes against the bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Honestly hrrr shows best case scenario for the metros front end thump then looks like a dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 It’s a ne move misread as n-nw then abruptly east instead of smooth and steady ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welcome to 2020, where lows run wide receiver routes! Thing literally takes a 90 degree turn as soon as it hits the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. What gives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Looking like marquis brown’s routes against the bills Lol Hey, it worked the one time it mattered the most! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: It’s a ne move misread as n-nw then abruptly east instead of smooth and steady ne Wonder how that affects warming in the upper level on the model. That track NW has to be cranking 850s up the bay. If it took a steady NE track, I wonder if that would translate any differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Hey, it worked the one time it mattered the most! That’s what I’m saying! Wouldn’t be the first or last time a model got a track wrong by 30-50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Does this have anything to do with the low from Ohio transferring energy and making it tuck to the coast more or? (I’m sorry if this sounds dumb I’m still learning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s what I’m saying! Wouldn’t be the first or last time a model got a track wrong by 30-50 miles Was actually referring to Hollywood's route, lol But I'd love for the model to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, jayyy said: Thing literally takes a 90 degree turn as soon as it hits the Atlantic off the Carolina coastline. What gives It stopped for Jimmy's Seafood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 The "zigzag of doom" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: Does this have anything to do with the low from Ohio transferring energy and making it tuck to the coast more or? (I’m sorry if this sounds dumb I’m still learning) Thankfully folks here are great at answering questions...so ask away! (I know I always do, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Eps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Clearly this is the work of Satan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Must... sleep.... Inner thoughts:::: “but 6z is so soon....” I hope the next HRRR run is sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps?? I'd take 3 or even 4 inches and run... I now live just west of Fairfax now... so maybe I will get that extra few miles luck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr keeps the center of the low off the coast no huge left turn like all the other models are depicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr is best case scenario for tomorrow along i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 WB 6Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 ^hrrr is furthest East with the low then any other guidance I’ve seen so far. Could be a blip but it’s been steady so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Lol 18.6 in Ashburn va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 When is the next model run? 4:00 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: When is the next model run? 4:00 am? NAM is running right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol 18.6 in Ashburn va You have to subtract out the heavy sleet. The three maps are not cumulative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NAM isn’t great, the low is a little East but not enough to cash in. Another problem is the NAM gets the precip here later and it quickly changes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: You have to subtract out the heavy sleet. The three maps are not cumulative. That subtraction thing gets me every time. Oh well, 18.6 had me living in weenie world for 3 minutes. Back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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