December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

[ChescoWx]

Last 2 runs of the GFS just want to put that 20" snow blob right over NW Chesco....if only it could tell the difference between snow and sleet....I do think NW Chesco is in an ideal spot to be Sleet Champ tomorrow....wish us luck!

[RedSky]

ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody on the PA side

 

 

[Birds~69]

Just now, RedSky said:

ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody 

 

Definitely better...

[Birds~69]

[kickingupastorm]

That tight gradient makes me very, very nervous....

[Birds~69]

06z NAM sucks....hopefully a dud.

[Birds~69]

3:19am

Probably the best call 6-12"....models are still screwing around. Covers the low end and high. I'm fine with it...

 

Active Weather Alerts

WINTER STORM WARNING

ISSUED: 3:19 AM DEC. 16, 2020 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with sleet expected. Total snow and
sleet accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as
40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute tonight and
the morning commute on Thursday. Heavy snow and gusty winds
could result in power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to
northeast this afternoon and early evening, and will be heavy at
times this evening. The snow will likely mix with and change to
sleet this evening, before ending as a period of snow on
Thursday morning.

[Newman]

I've kinda just accepted the fact this won't be as high end as some of those ridiculous models days ago. 10-14" for up here is the call. I'm really hoping to get double digits at least.

[Birds~69]

24F / DP 14F currently (probably won't be the final low) so temps are good...

[Birds~69]

41 minutes ago, Newman said:

I've kinda just accepted the fact this won't be as high end as some of those ridiculous models days ago. 10-14" for up here is the call. I'm really hoping to get double digits at least.

I think you will...I'm hoping 8-10"w/wind which suits me fine.

[SP]

I'm a trucker, and I can't even begin to think what it would be like trying to climb the Pine Grove to Tremont hill on I-81 northbound at the height of this storm.

Don’t forget the pass on RT 80 Blakeslee through hickory run. I have watched the sliding and crashing from the mosey wood bridge. Scary stretch. Pa is full of them.

Driving to cabin near BB saw the travel restrictions kick in at 1pm.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Definitely better...

[SP]

You guys think I should stick with Williamsport or maybe head east to Scranton or south towards Harrisburg. I can’t freaking decide

I’m a go big or go home kinda person. Elevation.....latitude. NEPA between Thorpe and Wilkes stretch along the PA TPK. Now tweaking a bit north and west might find the bullseye but also put you in an area with less resources.

Been chasing snow in PA for 30yrs. When the true dumps occur...things often take a while before travel becomes safe. 93 blizzard was a fine example....figured on 2ft. Got 3ft and three extra days on the mountain.


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[SP]

We gonna have a storm obs thread?


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[Voyager]

40 minutes ago, SP said:

Don’t forget the pass on RT 80 Blakeslee through hickory run. I have watched the sliding and crashing from the mosey wood bridge. Scary stretch. Pa is full of them.

Driving to cabin near BB saw the travel restrictions kick in at 1pm.


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Yes, I did forget about that one. And you are right. PA is full of them. I-80 by Lock Haven. I-81 going up through Clarks Summit. Etc and etc....

[PhillyGeekGirl]

5 hours ago, RedSky said:

ECM is 10 or 11" for everybody on the PA side

 

 

Aaagggghhhhhh moving across the bridge to NJ - I’m just 5 miles from Philly - is killing me here. All I want for Christmas is a blizzard. 

[anthonyweather]

Mesos amping up the snow for at least the upper half of Lehigh county and points north

[The Iceman]

Made it down to 21F last night. Dew point is 12F currently.

[The Iceman]

WAA is going to be the key for 95. HRRR has a nice thump of 6-8" of snow before any changeover. Feeling comfortable at 8-12" up here. Think 95 may end up closer to 4-8" though if the WAA is a fierce as progged.

[Birds~69]

23F / 11F

8-10" is my thinking here....let's go!

[MPotter_WX]

My final call for LV is 8-12” south of Rt. 22 and 12-16” north of Rt. 22. Still room for a shift either way, but this is my highest confidence forecast. Hopefully we can all enjoy a show at least from 4-10p.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, SP said:

We gonna have a storm obs thread?


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Go ahead an make one.  Go time will be soon!

[Snow Man]

9 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Last 2 runs of the GFS just want to put that 20" snow blob right over NW Chesco....if only it could tell the difference between snow and sleet....I do think NW Chesco is in an ideal spot to be Sleet Champ tomorrow....wish us luck!

Wow what a tight gradient Paul! I am right below that max but still in deep snow. Lock it in.

[ChescoWx]

56 minutes ago, Snow Man said:

Wow what a tight gradient Paul! I am right below that max but still in deep snow. Lock it in.

Hi Carmen!
If only it was snow - cut that by more than half - I think majority of our snow accumulation will be sleet...plowing will be tough that is for sure! Good luck!

[dssbss]

Quick question...So for parts like Berks south of I-78 for example, we are looking at maybe less snow, but this would be replaced by sleet correct?

[ChescoWx]

52 minutes ago, dssbss said:

Quick question...So for parts like Berks south of I-78 for example, we are looking at maybe less snow, but this would be replaced by sleet correct?

correct!

[ChescoWx]

My final forecast tweaked downward a bit to account for more sleet.

[Hurricane Agnes]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

My final forecast tweaked downward a bit to account for more sleet.

Kinda hard to tell but I think I am somewhere between "Zone 3" and "Zone 4" on your call, so I guess 2" - 8".

[KamuSnow]

34 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Kinda hard to tell but I think I am somewhere between "Zone 3" and "Zone 4" on your call, so I guess 2" - 8".

I'm in the 2 to 4 in zone 3, which is probably about right. Sucks being on the gradient edge! Nevertheless, if I get 3" I'll exceed last winter's total, so there's that.

It sure looks and feels like snow,  got that raw breeze out of the ENE. And as I'm typing, 1st flakes! Hoping for a nice snowy afternoon at least!

[RedSky]

I'm forecasting on the low end about 8-9" here in far northwest Bucks. The warm punch means business and I think most of the snow is the WAA thump, after the sleet think the change back to snow will yield very little additional accumulation.