olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Dewpoints on the HRRR are about 6 degrees (mid 20s) colder on the HRRR than the hires nam (low 30s) after sunset Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 18z nam coming in colder at least for northern areas. Trying to start off as all snow up this way and icy mix further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Warmer trend on 1km NAM. This is trend for 11AM Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Warmer trend on 1km NAM. This is trend for 11AM Wed Grit what are you thinking up this way? Ice storm warnings rather than a genuine Winter Storm Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 12k NAM and 3K both increased ICE accural from 12z IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Grit what are you thinking up this way? Ice storm warnings rather than a genuine Winter Storm Warning? Quick look at Roanoke, I'm thinking dusting / light accumulations of sleet and 0.15 to 0.20 of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 The 18Z RGEM increased ZR totals to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, griteater said: Quick look at Roanoke, I'm thinking dusting / light accumulations of sleet and 0.15 to 0.20 of freezing rain National Weather Service is going with snow/sleet 2-4 inches for Roanoke at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 anyone chasing this one? Some models have over 2 feet in PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: anyone chasing this one? Some models have over 2 feet in PA. Disappointed this isn’t our storm but glad to see a good ol fashion nor’easter. Reading grits comments and comments from other Mets today, hopefully this is a repeating pattern that resumes after a Christmas week lull. At some some point we’ll cash in if that’s the predominant storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 FWIW, the hires nam was 3-5 degrees too warm this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FWIW, the hires nam was 3-5 degrees too warm this morning Depends where you are. Here, it actually bumped totals up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @BornAgain13 NASTY ice forecasts back to back NAM runs for us. .60” and higher. Even half of that would not be good for the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13 NASTY ice forecasts back to back NAM runs for us. .60” and higher. Even half of that would not be good for the area. given im just south of him hows this look down kdan way? hoping its not so intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said: given im just south of him hows this look down kdan way? hoping its not so intense So looking at things you guys are actually further to the east of Martinsville than I thought. The corridor from Martinsville up 220 into Roanoke looks like Nam is targeting. A little farther to the east for you guys the amounts lessen but I would still say .1-.2. I would say BornAgain has a better chance to see a little more potential than further south into your area If you were to take Nam verbatim. Key to watch today is how high temps get and how long clouds can hold off tonight for radiational cooling and get the low as far down as possible before WAA takes over and starts slowly bumping the temp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 im hoping for a clear evening or at least part of it. also hoping cold over performs today and we dont get to the 51 they say we should. every degree helps. go wedge go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Good grief... The 12z NAM looks more like the RGEM in regards to the accumulated ice. It appears that some areas along the eastern ridges of the blue ridge are going to get a major ice storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Do you guys think there will be enough cold air around at the onset for everyone to see a little sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherlover said: Do you guys think there will be enough cold air around at the onset for everyone to see a little sleet? "everyone" is a big group but I would think anyone north and west of I-85 will see at least a little sleet. But this is predominately a ZR scenario outside of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1057 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1035 AM Tuesday: Strong isentropic lift will spread across the region, and tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture, producing a low cloud deck over the forecast area this evening. Precip onset looks delayed a bit from previous runs in the Guidance, with light precip not starting until after 06z tonight. Temps will be able to fall well into the 30s, and below freezing in much of the mountains as the precip starts, and wet-bulb to freezing along the I-40 corridor of the NC Piedmont. Forecast soundings show an aggressive warm nose punching in thanks to strong WAA. Still could see snow and sleet at the onset in the northern and central NC mountains, but transitioning to sleet and freezing rain by 12z Wed. Sfc temps are always tricky, and the CAD will help bring temps to right around 32 deg all the way to the I-85 corridor from Greenville to Charlotte around sunrise. However, it`s very marginal, and should quickly return to the mid 30s by mid-morning, as warm nose becomes very strong and CAD weakens. As for QPF, not much change from previous forecast. Still looking like bulk of precip will occur after 12z Wed, which may limit ice accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 ^ Aggressive warm nose - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Aggressive warm nose - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear Especially in a marginally event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Aggressive warm nose - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear Yeah no kidding. Looks like DC, Philly, and NYC could all get acquainted with the warm nose. (Insert evil laugh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ Aggressive warm nose - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear Still I have seen that kind of wording before and will sit there and ride 31/32 at my location for a couple more hours than they anticipate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Hey guys quick off topic question... what is the name of the App for this forum , so I can use the app instead of browser?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Hey guys quick off topic question... what is the name of the App for this forum , so I can use the app instead of browser?? Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: Tapatalk Thank you! Sorry, if anyone needs to delete this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Especially in a marginally event. I miss a good ice storm from the 80's. You'd go to school with a forecast of rain and 38, and you'd get sent home mid-morning with rain and 28. Models and forecasters didn't have a dam clue on how to handle cold air damming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 So looking at things you guys are actually further to the east of Martinsville than I thought. The corridor from Martinsville up 220 into Roanoke looks like Nam is targeting. A little farther to the east for you guys the amounts lessen but I would still say .1-.2. I would say BornAgain has a better chance to see a little more potential than further south into your area If you were to take Nam verbatim. Key to watch today is how high temps get and how long clouds can hold off tonight for radiational cooling and get the low as far down as possible before WAA takes over and starts slowly bumping the temp up. This is where I am at... very close to hardly nothing and a lot...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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