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Ice Time? Dec. 16ish Possible CAD Event


Tar Heel Snow
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21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

anyone chasing this one? Some models have over 2 feet in PA.

snku_acc.us_ma (1) (2).png

Disappointed this isn’t our storm but glad to see a good ol fashion nor’easter.  Reading grits comments and comments from other Mets today, hopefully this is a repeating pattern that resumes after a Christmas week lull.  At some some point we’ll cash in if that’s the predominant storm track.  

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6 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

given im just south of him hows this look down kdan way? hoping its not so intense 

 

So looking at things you guys are actually further to the east of Martinsville than I thought. The corridor from Martinsville up 220 into Roanoke looks like Nam is targeting. A little farther to the east for you guys the amounts lessen but I would still say .1-.2. I would say BornAgain has a better chance to see a little more potential than further south into your area If you were to take Nam verbatim. Key to watch today is how high temps get and how long clouds can hold off tonight for radiational cooling and get the low as far down as possible before WAA takes over and starts slowly bumping the temp up. 

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10 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Do you guys think there will be enough cold air around at the onset for everyone to see a little sleet?

"everyone" is a big group but I would think anyone north and west of I-85 will see at least a little sleet.  But this is predominately a ZR scenario outside of the mtns.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1057 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1035 AM Tuesday:
Strong isentropic lift
will spread across the region, and tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture,
producing a low cloud deck over the forecast area this evening.
Precip onset looks delayed a bit from previous runs in the Guidance,
with light precip not starting until after 06z tonight. Temps will be
able to fall well into the 30s, and below freezing in much of the
mountains as the precip starts, and wet-bulb to freezing along
the I-40 corridor of the NC Piedmont. Forecast soundings show an
aggressive warm nose punching in thanks to strong WAA. Still could
see snow and sleet at the onset in the northern and central NC
mountains, but transitioning to sleet and freezing rain by 12z
Wed. Sfc temps are always tricky, and the CAD will help bring
temps to right around 32 deg all the way to the I-85 corridor
from Greenville to Charlotte around sunrise. However, it`s very
marginal, and should quickly return to the mid 30s by mid-morning,
as warm nose becomes very strong and CAD weakens. As for QPF,
not much change from previous forecast. Still looking like bulk of
precip will occur after 12z Wed, which may limit ice accums.
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So looking at things you guys are actually further to the east of Martinsville than I thought. The corridor from Martinsville up 220 into Roanoke looks like Nam is targeting. A little farther to the east for you guys the amounts lessen but I would still say .1-.2. I would say BornAgain has a better chance to see a little more potential than further south into your area If you were to take Nam verbatim. Key to watch today is how high temps get and how long clouds can hold off tonight for radiational cooling and get the low as far down as possible before WAA takes over and starts slowly bumping the temp up. 
This is where I am at... very close to hardly nothing and a lot...
a658f955e152fdc77aefd8a11ea92192.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

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