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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Monday and Tuesday look poor in the southern half of pa if you like enough snow to shovel. Strung out systems with minimal precipitation suck. 

Definitely 12z weakening and further north. And the Primary on the GFS is over Bradford. As much confidence I had with Monday and Tuesday storm I lost it. And the later week storm looks like a DC special. 

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38 minutes ago, paweather said:

Definitely 12z weakening and further north. And the Primary on the GFS is over Bradford. As much confidence I had with Monday and Tuesday storm I lost it. And the later week storm looks like a DC special. 

Yep. Exactly my concern from 2-3 days ago. It was way too early to call victory. 

We can still win.

We can still get shutout. (for the week)

 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep. Exactly my concern from 2-3 days ago. It was way too early to call victory. 

We can still win.

We can still get shutout. (for the week)

 

Yep you were on it with the concerns, no doubt. And I am fearing that third point could very well happen now. At least we have wind and clouds. :-) Let's hope HH runs go to your point 2. 

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27 minutes ago, paweather said:

Need Blizz and Carlisle to give us hope. 

I'd like to but the last 3 runs of the GFS went from getting 24" to 20" to 8".  Don't get me wrong, I'd be very happy with 8.  However the other major models all give us less.  Canadian gives us around 4" and the Euro gives 1" (suppressed).  DC went from 28" to 24" to 2.4" on GFS.  Ouch!!  As it stands now for Monday/Tuesday I'm not expecting more than 3".  However, for the late week storm we're still 110 hours away and much could happen in either direction.  As usual, I'll be happy with 2" (on storm #1) which is enough to just cover up the grass.

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QPF seems to be the underwhelming thing with alot of guidance today. We need some decent rates up front to get our shot at moderate snowfall before any mixing issues materialize, and well.. even if they don't. If you look closely at what the Euro did for instance, it doesn't even get much of the initial WAA precip north of the mason-dixon line despite tracking the low similarly to the GFS (Euro a tad weaker) . The result being is it actually thumps the DC and north folks in MD with a few inches. We have to nail placement of that down, as theres def some differences there between models. The NAM shows the best QPF and northern surge of the WAA precip. Gut feeling is we probably do get the WAA precip surge more up our way but we're dealing with a fading system here thats peaking out in the plains/midwest, not a strengthening one.  I was initially thinking a narrow stripe of 5-8" warning snow for some portion of the subforum but this is looking more like a higher end advisory snowfall/ice combo imbedded in an areawide advisory for up to a couple inches, some sleet and perhaps a glaze of ZR. 

For the mid-week system, we have a much more pronounced shortwave with that one. Frankly, I'm not really sweating it being generally south of our region on most non GFS guidance right now. Our bigger ticket items this winter have all spent time south of us in the mid range. Heck this Mon/Tues system was being suppressed in the mid/longer range.  I think the snow axis will be centered south of the December snowstorm and probably finally gets DC a half decent snowfall but I'm not convinced this mostly avoids C-PA... not with the mean western trough and some semblance of SE ridging building back in between Mon-Tuesday's event and this one. GFS 500mb presentation isn't that much different from the Euro with the exception that GFS might be a bit stronger/sharper with the shortwave. If I'm wrong and it misses south than so be it but I do think puts a swath across a more sizable portion of PA. It's a fascinating pattern for sure looking at the big picture of things and not the IMBY perspective where some haven't really seen much action. You have of course the base La Nina state trying to counteract with a Nino-esque active southern stream and significant NAO/AO blocking. Can't emphasize enough how much the NAO/AO showing up in a big way this winter has salvaged what probably could have been a warmer version of last winter to this point. With the current alignment in the Pac/western US right now, we're not even in the game without it.  

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

QPF seems to be the underwhelming thing with alot of guidance today. We need some decent rates up front to get our shot at moderate snowfall before any mixing issues materialize, and well.. even if they don't. If you look closely at what the Euro did for instance, it doesn't even get much of the initial WAA precip north of the mason-dixon line despite tracking the low similarly to the GFS (Euro a tad weaker) . The result being is it actually thumps the DC and north folks in MD with a few inches. We have to nail placement of that down, as theres def some differences there between models. The NAM shows the best QPF and northern surge of the WAA precip. Gut feeling is we probably do get the WAA precip surge more up our way but we're dealing with a fading system here thats peaking out in the plains/midwest, not a strengthening one.  I was initially thinking a narrow stripe of 5-8" warning snow for some portion of the subforum but this is looking more like a higher end advisory snowfall/ice combo imbedded in an areawide advisory for up to a couple inches, some sleet and perhaps a glaze of ZR. 

For the mid-week system, we have a much more pronounced shortwave with that one. Frankly, I'm not really sweating it being generally south of our region on most non GFS guidance right now. Our bigger ticket items this winter have all spent time south of us in the mid range. Heck this Mon/Tues system was being suppressed in the mid/longer range.  I think the snow axis will be centered south of the December snowstorm and probably finally gets DC a half decent snowfall but I'm not convinced this mostly avoids C-PA... not with the mean western trough and some semblance of SE ridging building back in between Mon-Tuesday's event and this one. GFS 500mb presentation isn't that much different from the Euro with the exception that GFS might be a bit stronger/sharper with the shortwave. If I'm wrong and it misses south than so be it but I do think puts a swath across a more sizable portion of PA. It's a fascinating pattern for sure looking at the big picture of things and not the IMBY perspective where some haven't really seen much action. You have of course the base La Nina state trying to counteract with a Nino-esque active southern stream and significant NAO/AO blocking. Can't emphasize enough how much the NAO/AO showing up in a big way this winter has salvaged what probably could have been a warmer version of last winter to this point. With the current alignment in the Pac/western US right now, we're not even in the game without it.  

Thanks - really hope you're right about the late week system. I've never really gotten invested in the early week event (maybe I should have, I just didn't like the setup for down here) but as I've said previously, I have hope when we have a storm that we need a north trend. I don't know that we get a big event but I'd gladly take a few inches even if DC metro gets significantly more. 

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46 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Also any chance for sleet/freezing rain on Monday night event? Lol I’m the weirdo in here that is interested in both.

I don't think you'll see much mixing being up in the North Central. You may see a period of mix but the portion of the system where mixing may come into play doesn't appear to have much QPF. 

Looking at the climo stuff IPT is already at 28" for the season so far with 36.4" the 30 year average (38.8" avg since 1895). You score a decent event out of Mon-Tuesday and your essentially within a few inches of average for the whole winter before it's even February. 

Here's CTP's opening take:

StormTotalSnowWeb1.thumb.png.a40ba80ec51daca02907f81de9f37e15.png

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep. Exactly my concern from 2-3 days ago. It was way too early to call victory. 

We can still win.

We can still get shutout. (for the week)

 

Yes, there is a long way to go, especially with the late week system.

I agree with your point that I would rather be looking for a north trend with 5 days to go in a set up like this.

As for the early week storm, we will need to watch the short range model trends over the next couple of days. I think many of us will see 3 to 6 inches of snow by the time this first event ends by Tuesday night. I also hope for a little mix at the end to put a nice glaze or crust on top of the snow!

 

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I have no confidence in a hit or miss for anything anymore until just a few hours out. Every year I watch winter forecasting get less accurate and more lazy  . You can be a fanboy and say its not but your just repeating what the mob around you is saying. Over the years storm lead time has improved but where and what in most cases is still dead wrong by a few inches and many a mile just like the dec storm and most storms going back. I will keep my hopes up until the end and not be  disappointed either way because life is still fun either way. I personally have had a bad feeling about winter before it was here but I want to be wrong and snow as authentically as you.

Dudes where the fk are you ? Stop being babies every time you cant control the weather or what someone wants to say on a public forum .  fk man people should not have to all agree believe talk and walk the same to make you happy nor will they. The only person paying the price now is you. Its funny because I thought one of you was the voice of reason. I guess not.

 

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5 minutes ago, FHS said:

I have no confidence in a hit or miss for anything anymore until just a few hours out. Every year I watch winter forecasting get less accurate and more lazy  . You can be a fanboy and say its not but your just repeating what the mob around you is saying. Over the years storm lead time has improved but where and what in most cases is still dead wrong by a few inches and many a mile just like the dec storm and most storms going back. I will keep my hopes up until the end and not be  disappointed either way because life is still fun either way. I personally have had a bad feeling about winter before it was here but I want to be wrong and snow as authentically as you.

Dudes where the fk are you ? Stop being babies every time you cant control the weather or what someone wants to say on a public forum .  fk man people should not have to all agree believe talk and walk the same to make you happy nor will they. The only person paying the price now is you. Its funny because I thought one of you was the voice of reason. I guess not.

 

Who is "You", are you thinking you are in the MA Forum? :D

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

I don’t think we get shutout in Lancaster.

I think 1-3” for Monday event.

I am really liking Thursday event. Euro is coming around.


.

I hope you're right. Both Sterling and Mt. Holly are on the suppressed train. Especially concerning for us if Sterling is saying that their forecast area is too far north.

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26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hope you're right. Both Sterling and Mt. Holly are on the suppressed train. Especially concerning for us if Sterling is saying that their forecast area is too far north.

Check out the WPC day 5 qpf map.   Brings the .75 to 1.00” line all the way to southern PA.  That is pretty encouraging.  

D36FC145-BEFC-4725-B825-5741DAA25F6C.png

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54 minutes ago, paweather said:

Who is "You", are you thinking you are in the MA Forum? :D

lol no even though I am an outsider that no one likes and not in the fam I just want to see the real winter storm lovers where they belong and been for the last 10+ . I do get quit annoyed at the exaggerated emotions with every model run but I guess it is what it is  . Its pretty obvious to me there is no consistency from run to run so anything is still possible  and anyone  that says diff is likely just guessing and hoping for there accolades. I have seen no  evidence  of winters return this year other than the sun cycle but t I do see earth based factors that have much more sway over patterns  that say to me not this year hommie, but i was 100% wrong last year so  hope I am again. I don't think it means winter will completely bust but I do think it will be a meager shell of what could have been.

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28 minutes ago, FHS said:

lol no even though I am an outsider that no one likes and not in the fam I just want to see the real winter storm lovers where they belong and been for the last 10+ . I do get quit annoyed at the exaggerated emotions with every model run but I guess it is what it is  . Its pretty obvious to me there is no consistency from run to run so anything is still possible  and anyone  that says diff is likely just guessing and hoping for there accolades. I have seen no  evidence  of winters return this year other than the sun cycle but t I do see earth based factors that have much more sway over patterns  that say to me not this year hommie, but i was 100% wrong last year so  hope I am again. I don't think it means winter will completely bust but I do think it will be a meager shell of what could have been.

Thanks. 

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Here is ice predictions for Monday.

image.png

I just looked at the snowfall map. I'd say 3-4 here, maybe 5 as I'm right on the line of 3-4 and 4-6. We'll see, but I usually end up on the low side of any predicted range.

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