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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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Great posts & awesome Euro, EPS & Canadian runs as well.

Did you see the CIPS analogs posted on the Mid Atlantic forum as well? The top 10 storm analogs are a greatest hits list for CTP snow.

Let’s do this!

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second time this winter G1 geomagnetic threshold has been reached. First time  was followed by mid dec hecs and this G1 looks to be followed by a note worthy Ec storm also.

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The 18z GEFS is starting to come around to the Euro idea for the storm on Monday. There are an increasing amount of ensemble member lows off of the coast and it develops a mean low position just off of the coast of the DelMarVa by early Monday am.

The snow map is reflecting the potential of the CTP jackpot!

82FF20FF-A9F9-44FA-8E07-E27452E12113.png

798F3E19-5B02-4F3B-9E55-126E004C2794.png

15BB99CD-402D-4533-BE81-CD74B88D2DF6.png

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43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@showmethesnow 

If you get the chance, please let us know your thoughts on this potential blockbuster storm.

"potential blockbuster"

That probably jinxed the entire set 

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7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

"potential blockbuster"

That probably jinxed the entire set 

Think that would out jinx the Mid-Atlantic having the storm thread up for this? Haha 

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26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035 

What are you current thoughts before the 0z run Madness begins?

I feel pretty good about the prospects of a decent winter storm in most of central and southern PA. The primary track and how the handoff to the coastal shakes out is going to be a key on if/where this becomes an excessive snowfall event. If we get the front end WAA precip sent into PA like the GFS and we track the low where we keep most of PA snow and that transfer to the Delmarva occurs, this will be a really big snowstorm for a big portion of the subforum as you would position the pivot over our region. If it dips like the Euro (and to some degree the Euro Ens) has been doing and has the coastal more quickly take over, this is a moderate event with a tighter area of heavy snows probably focused southern third of PA and Mid-Atl. Unless the GFS starts changing it's tune, we have to respect that option too (some southern PA mixing). If we are to play some devil's advocate here, the GFS spent a couple days in the mid range being about the only model having yesterday's event do what it eventually did.. while the Euro was trying to bury it under us. This is a different setup though with a boatload more potential. 

I posted a couple pages back on the easterly 850 wind anomalies. The 12z Euro had monster anomalies and is def NESIS quality on guidance as a whole. December's storm had similar, although with the blocking in place this is probably going to be a longer duration coastal than that one. The pieces are there for this to be a big one. Who's going to get it is still up for grabs. 

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23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. 

He usually does that, doesn't he?

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Just now, anotherman said:


I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

Any local weather person to downplaying event right now it just wrong. It may end up going the wrong way and he would be right but every model shows a strong signal of a significant winter storm event. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Any local weather person to downplaying event right now it just wrong. It may end up going the wrong way and he would be right but every model shows a strong signal of a significant winter storm event. 

Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things.

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things.

I'm not saying inciting panic at all still early. Just do his Job and tell the truth. Nothing is set in stone but to downplay it right now he is doing the opposite of good weather media reporting. We know more than him. 

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. 

 

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:


I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

That's basically the watered down explanation on what the GFS has been doing, so I'd guess he's heavily weighing that particular model into his forecast. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

We know more than him. 

Any meteorologist has likely forgotten more than we may ever know lol

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Best post from PSU tonight:

1996 tucked

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1/25/2000 tucked

AE372739-D0C0-4FA7-BCFC-DD85EBEED6E5.gif.9344e4576f3cd6c2bb9ebb8d8346e83c.gif

2/12/2006  tucked

189A5206-E82D-42F0-93B2-D4B11DB74231.gif.9681107e0103b693cb0d3062d19861ba.gif

Feb 6 2010 Tucked

5C3BAC31-0E6B-4DE7-806E-96695B48BA17.gif.8e39d631e4249d5f2169fda2088066f4.gif

Feb 11 2010 tucked

BD732ABC-BCF7-4D23-9103-E05FCF0FCE79.gif.c484b02f7f38663b0bc0251c6b75c5cd.gif
Feb 13 2014 Tucked

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2016 Tucked

9B760F3A-7FEF-4055-ADC2-914EA46ECE7A.gif.6ab620accc72f3ac95d78a32f35832ba.gif

Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast.  The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003.  2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC  It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick.  PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high.  The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event.   But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast. 

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50 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. 

WGAL also taking this stance. 

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28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Yes but inciting panic buying at Giant also is not their job. He may be basing his forecast or projection off of experience or climo or any other number of things.

It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. 

He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

It's Wednesday. There is plenty of time for him to slowly ramp up wording and amounts. I'd rather that than go big now and have to keep backpeddling. 

He could at least mention the possibility of a major storm, perhaps he has said that...

Exactly. Just comment on it or some phrase he could say instead of downplaying. 

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

I guess they don't look at the models other than there own. ICON. Again very consistent. icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

 

The ICON has a nice track that stalls out off of the DE & south NJ coast.

It has a nice swath of heavy precip over CTP.

1245530E-0E63-444A-8142-9FB53623FFC7.png

E75725CA-C92F-4F4B-B83A-44C980C42998.png

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