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2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

. I'm not biting.

Probably a good call lol. But the NAM is trying to do the same thing. The HRRR drops 6-7 inches over somewhere southwest of Lexington. I’m running a little cooler than forecast up here at 46 degrees and maybe that’s what is causing the models to want to change over some areas sooner? Burst of heavy snow for 45 minutes at 8 am = a win 

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LeConte forecast. 

 

Monday
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8am. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Monday Night
Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values between -2 and 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

2900 ft near Gatlinburg, hope this turns out right for our cabin folk. 

 

Monday
Rain before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 31 by 5pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Monday Night
Snow. Low around 20. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 26. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

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0z RGEM seems to have slightly ticked up snow totals across the whole of the area. Running through frames to my untrained eye it seems to pick up on a piece of energy rotating down out of Southern Indiana around 14z monday into Kentucky then Tennessee through the evening and night, even appearing to over come downsloping in the great valley.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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0z ARW and NAM have made a pretty decent trend to the SE. That opens up the door for maybe an earlier change over at lower elevations - not sure but maybe.   Interestingly, their storm totals over KY have really jumped which maybe means this is a bit stronger and a bit further SE.  I won't say their will be some surprises, but I won't say there won't be.  Bham, the 'Burg looks to be sitting nice, man.  You got a chance at doing really well.  Looks the like the Plateau may do well and the Smokies get absolutely hammered above 4k.  Trends at this stage matter.  Good luck to everyone.

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10 hours ago, John1122 said:

All the models love the Eastern Rim/Western Edge of the Plateau. I expect OHX to issue a snow advisory for their Plateau counties. I believe we have a poster who lives in NW Cumberland. They may be the winners here outside the Smokies/Eastern upslope areas. 

You're probably talking about me. I'll let you guys know if it gets interesting here. Hopefully it will.

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8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wonder what's causing the drop off in parts of Eastern KY on Rap ? Looks rather odd.

The southeast areas are upslope, the areas west of there appear to be heavy synoptic snow that is part of the same band than gets Middle Tennessee and there's a gap between the two where the synoptic band misses and the upslope doesn't happen. 

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That area has been consistently high across modeling.  I think you should be looking at 2 or 3 inches at least.  

That'd be sweet. I'm a little late following this. I know TWC forecast has been calling 1-3 inches for almost a solid week for this event. Now it's down to 41 degrees here. Crazy drop from 48 to 41 in about 30 minutes. I wonder if it's the front or maybe it's just raining harder.

 

Edit: Now 40 degrees?! Is the cold front passing through now?

 

127704009_2946976818864244_3117567214165166057_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=coVg_XKp19EAX_dVz14&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-2.xx&oh=4da8a663b4f671fad67c2cec88658139&oe=5FE84870

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13 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

That'd be sweet. I'm a little late following this. I know TWC forecast has been calling 1-3 inches for almost a solid week for this event. Now it's down to 41 degrees here. Crazy drop from 48 to 41 in about 30 minutes. I wonder if it's the front or maybe it's just raining harder.

 

Edit: Now 40 degrees?! Is the cold front passing through now?

 

127704009_2946976818864244_3117567214165166057_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&ccb=2&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=coVg_XKp19EAX_dVz14&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-2.xx&oh=4da8a663b4f671fad67c2cec88658139&oe=5FE84870

It's 41 in Cookeville,  43 in Nashville and 39 in Clarksville. You're getting close to being on the West side of the low. The front appears to be from Clarksville to Jackson. 

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Nice, Olhausen!! We are officially under a winter storm warning here and I can’t sleep even though we are hours away from anything good here but looks like we could see anywhere from 3-8 inches here. 

Gonna hit up a pancake house for an early breakfast, grab some Krispy Kreme for later, pick up more firewood, and then get set up for the storm. Good luck to all!
 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

6z 3k NAM seems to be picking up on maybe a little more energy rotating down the backside Holston mentioned earlier...now has the upslope producing in the Great Valley

20201130_043646.jpg

That snow hole in Anderson County, lol. That would be something to see the eastern valley get a decent snow to start off winter. 

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Looks like I'm just barely gonna miss the band lifting across the N. plateau. Still rain here and 40. Wind is picking up quite a bit though. 

Sorry @PowellVolz missed your mention last night. There is a way to tell the elevation based on correlation coefficient radar, but I don't know. I need to figure it out though,  I was asking myself the same question, lol. 

As y'all were talking about above overnight, will be interesting to see what happens with the upper low as it drops in to the west and creates some lift directly up the eastern valley, if the NAM, RAP, and HRRR are right. Moisture from the lakes and actual wrap around moisture is lifted at a really nice trajectory for place up the valley from Knoxville. It's the only way y'all can get orographic lift. So many mesoscale and topographic  things could impact it though. John and I could get downsloped (me from Crab Orchard mts and him from Cross mountain), but that also has to work against the upper low's lift and lift up onto the plateau. 

I'm looking forward to watching it on radar this PM and evening to see if it develops and what it does. The IR NAM gif below shows the lift. 

It is the moisture @TellicoWx mentions above

giphy.gif

 

 

 

 

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