Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 NAM seems stuck at 10z but 1z HRRR looks interesting for areas between Nashville and the n plateau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: . I'm not biting. Probably a good call lol. But the NAM is trying to do the same thing. The HRRR drops 6-7 inches over somewhere southwest of Lexington. I’m running a little cooler than forecast up here at 46 degrees and maybe that’s what is causing the models to want to change over some areas sooner? Burst of heavy snow for 45 minutes at 8 am = a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 RAP looks interesting too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 I just peeked at the SREFs for Crossville and @Blue Moon you weren’t kidding about the mean jump lol! Like you said prolly not a good idea to bite, but fun to think about the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Snow level crawling down as the correlation coefficient line gets closer to the OHX radar site good luck blue moon ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Snow level crawling down as the correlation coefficient line gets closer to the OHX radar site good luck blue moon ! Anyway to tell what elevation the melting is occurring at there? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 LeConte forecast. Monday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8am. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values between -2 and 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. 2900 ft near Gatlinburg, hope this turns out right for our cabin folk. Monday Rain before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 31 by 5pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Night Snow. Low around 20. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 26. West wind 10 to 15 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 0z RGEM seems to have slightly ticked up snow totals across the whole of the area. Running through frames to my untrained eye it seems to pick up on a piece of energy rotating down out of Southern Indiana around 14z monday into Kentucky then Tennessee through the evening and night, even appearing to over come downsloping in the great valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 0z ARW and NAM have made a pretty decent trend to the SE. That opens up the door for maybe an earlier change over at lower elevations - not sure but maybe. Interestingly, their storm totals over KY have really jumped which maybe means this is a bit stronger and a bit further SE. I won't say their will be some surprises, but I won't say there won't be. Bham, the 'Burg looks to be sitting nice, man. You got a chance at doing really well. Looks the like the Plateau may do well and the Smokies get absolutely hammered above 4k. Trends at this stage matter. Good luck to everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The 39hr 03z RAP was pretty decent from the Plateau west especially. I don't have a way to see it up close at the county view level but it looked like a lot of Middle Tennessee was in the 1-2 inch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Managed to find it on COD. Fairly wide spread 2+ inch area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Wonder what's causing the drop off in parts of Eastern KY on Rap ? Looks rather odd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 10 hours ago, John1122 said: All the models love the Eastern Rim/Western Edge of the Plateau. I expect OHX to issue a snow advisory for their Plateau counties. I believe we have a poster who lives in NW Cumberland. They may be the winners here outside the Smokies/Eastern upslope areas. You're probably talking about me. I'll let you guys know if it gets interesting here. Hopefully it will. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 It was 48 here a few minutes ago and now it's down to 43 at my house. Monterey reports 44 and Crossville 47. I'm between the two near 2000ft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Wonder what's causing the drop off in parts of Eastern KY on Rap ? Looks rather odd. The southeast areas are upslope, the areas west of there appear to be heavy synoptic snow that is part of the same band than gets Middle Tennessee and there's a gap between the two where the synoptic band misses and the upslope doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 30 minutes ago, John1122 said: Managed to find it on COD. Fairly wide spread 2+ inch area. Randomly says 5.3" almost directly over my house lol. If only. I'd take that instantly but I'm sure it'll be a letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Shocker0 said: Randomly says 5.3" almost directly over my house lol. If only. I'd take that instantly but I'm sure it'll be a letdown. That area has been consistently high across modeling. I think you should be looking at 2 or 3 inches at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: That area has been consistently high across modeling. I think you should be looking at 2 or 3 inches at least. That'd be sweet. I'm a little late following this. I know TWC forecast has been calling 1-3 inches for almost a solid week for this event. Now it's down to 41 degrees here. Crazy drop from 48 to 41 in about 30 minutes. I wonder if it's the front or maybe it's just raining harder. Edit: Now 40 degrees?! Is the cold front passing through now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: That'd be sweet. I'm a little late following this. I know TWC forecast has been calling 1-3 inches for almost a solid week for this event. Now it's down to 41 degrees here. Crazy drop from 48 to 41 in about 30 minutes. I wonder if it's the front or maybe it's just raining harder. Edit: Now 40 degrees?! Is the cold front passing through now? It's 41 in Cookeville, 43 in Nashville and 39 in Clarksville. You're getting close to being on the West side of the low. The front appears to be from Clarksville to Jackson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 You can see the colder temps moving in from west to east on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: You can see the colder temps moving in from west to east on here. Yeah that's strange Crossville showing around 47 and a few miles northwest it's that much colder. It is now at 39 here. I wonder if it will kinda balance off or warm up a degree or two at some point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I'm in between Crossville and Monterey closer to Monterey/ Putnam co and it's 38 here down from 42 and the wind has ramped up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Snowing and accumulating with a temp of 34 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Short range models and hi-res models really nailed that changeover from Bowling Green down into Middle Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Olhausen said: Snowing and accumulating with a temp of 34 Yea, got about the same here in Cottontown, probably a little less, White House benefits from these marginal events because of the Highland Rim; just a little elevation goes a long way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Nice, Olhausen!! We are officially under a winter storm warning here and I can’t sleep even though we are hours away from anything good here but looks like we could see anywhere from 3-8 inches here. Gonna hit up a pancake house for an early breakfast, grab some Krispy Kreme for later, pick up more firewood, and then get set up for the storm. Good luck to all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 6z 3k NAM seems to be picking up on maybe a little more energy rotating down the backside Holston mentioned earlier...now has the upslope producing in the Great Valley 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 6z 3k NAM seems to be picking up on maybe a little more energy rotating down the backside Holston mentioned earlier...now has the upslope producing in the Great Valley That snow hole in Anderson County, lol. That would be something to see the eastern valley get a decent snow to start off winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Looks like I'm just barely gonna miss the band lifting across the N. plateau. Still rain here and 40. Wind is picking up quite a bit though. Sorry @PowellVolz missed your mention last night. There is a way to tell the elevation based on correlation coefficient radar, but I don't know. I need to figure it out though, I was asking myself the same question, lol. As y'all were talking about above overnight, will be interesting to see what happens with the upper low as it drops in to the west and creates some lift directly up the eastern valley, if the NAM, RAP, and HRRR are right. Moisture from the lakes and actual wrap around moisture is lifted at a really nice trajectory for place up the valley from Knoxville. It's the only way y'all can get orographic lift. So many mesoscale and topographic things could impact it though. John and I could get downsloped (me from Crab Orchard mts and him from Cross mountain), but that also has to work against the upper low's lift and lift up onto the plateau. I'm looking forward to watching it on radar this PM and evening to see if it develops and what it does. The IR NAM gif below shows the lift. It is the moisture @TellicoWx mentions above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 CC radar shows some transition lowering into the valley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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