BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 I do like that Canada is finally getting some cold. Maybe a reload for late Dec/into January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 A decent LES band behind that cutter next Monday on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mothman Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Hi I’m from the Catskills. Happy to be here! Models really backed off ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, Mothman said: Hi I’m from the Catskills. Happy to be here! Models really backed off ... Love the Roscoe Diner; I am in Liberty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 52 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just a horrible EPS run last night. Pacific completely takes over with zonal flow. Definitely an above average month incoming. Not alot of cold air in Canada Need a major lakes cutter to buckle the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not alot of cold air in Canada Need a major lakes cutter to buckle the pattern Lots of cold air in Canada? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Lots of cold air in Canada? Epo sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Every year, I keep thinking the winter patterns couldn't get worse...then the next year comes... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: FWIW. Despite the anguishing over longer range model runs, I think we’ll have our chances. Jeez, that looks terrible lol. 4-6 weeks of PAC flow in a Nina? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Far from ideal but if the pattern remains active maybe we can time something with a little Atlantic help. Alaska has been the place to be the last few years. Nonstop cold and snow there. I think it has to do with that warm pool of pac waters up there the last few years. Its the only anomaly that would explain this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 If it's not going to snow, lets get some 50s and sun around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: If it's not going to snow, lets get some 50s and sun around here. Agreed. The weather the past couple of months reminds me of what is typical in most of Germany and the Low Countries. A lot of 40’s for high temps, generally dreary with rain and occasional bits of snowfall with cold snaps. Same with England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Shortwave sliding through on Wednesday ahead of stronger warm air advection late this week will bring rain and snow to region. Temps over higher terrain of eastern Lake Ontario region including Tug Hill and western Dacks should stay cold enough for lake enhanced snow. Some accumulation could occur Wednesday into Wednesday night. ECMWF quite bullish with qpf/snow and seems on higher end of guidance for both. H85 temps of -4c to -6c marginal for all snow and suggest we`ll be looking at situation that is highly dependent on elevation. Will keep this out of HWO for now given most guidance is not as bullish with qpf/snow as ECMWF and since ECMWF showed sharp increase over its previous runs. Beyond this into late this week, upper ridging and warming will provide a warm up with temps rising well above normal Thu into Sat. Deepening long wave trough over central CONUS will then result in cyclogenesis by next weekend with deepening low potentially less than 990mb lifting across the western Great Lakes. At least at this point, primary models are in good agreement with the idea, though NBM temp output shows decent spread Friday and Saturday. Seems we`ll be on the warm side of the system Friday/Saturday (highs potentially as warm as the 50s one or both of these days) with rain first part of the weekend and possibly some gusty winds and increasing lake effect snow chances arriving by late next weekend as colder air arrives from the west. Plenty of time to dive into those details as we work through the upcoming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Epo sucks I agree. Canada isn't going into an Ice box with a +EPO. If there was at least an Aleutian ridge it could create some cross polar flow but nope. Far from your typical Nina pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Looks like several inches fell just my south, 1/2"-1" here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters. Yup, that sounds like a pretty typical Great Lakes climate. The times when it's awesome living in the Great Lakes is when you do get a good storm or one of those nice lake effect bands...and then you get those constant refreshers every day or couple days. Then the snowpack can build up and it's awesome. But....we need some BLOCKING so that we can get some cold air locked in to provide one of those great patterns. Looking like another winter where that is not going to happen though because most of the indices...SUCK. Usually, the lakes can help us salvage even the worst of patterns though. Syracuse managed to get 50 inches of snow even during the horrid winter of 11-12. That's like 40% of the normal for here (awful) but still more than NYC get in one of their "good" winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has certainly been a rough couple of years. Not sure about climo in your area, but for SNE/Mid-Atlantic I think we have to cash in during December and early January because the Nina is likely to torch us through February. Not all Nina's are torches by Feb/Mar. Some years include 1995-96, 1988-89, 1983-84, 1971-72 and 1964-65. Areas in the Mid-Atlantic need blocking on the Atlantic side more than the Pacific. That's the only caveat compared to us further north where we can still get snow despite a +NAO/AO. I'm not sure if parts of the Mid-Atlantic had any luck in those winters I listed above, but I wouldn't write off Feb/Mar just yet because it is possible under the right circumstances. There is a possibility we could see a SSW come Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like several inches fell just my south, 1/2"-1" here.. Did you move to Pulaski yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 26 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters. It's definitely tough where you live. You need synoptic with Lake enhanced on the back side. That is where Rochester does its best. The biggest of dogs are where most of us live though. Only in LES can you get a 100" storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Did you move to Pulaski yet? Nope not yet lol Estimated closing date is December 23rd, just let my landlord know I'll be out by the first...So somewhere around then lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Euro is pretty serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Euro is actually below normal after that cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I’m thinking 50% Climo snowfall looks very likely right now...unless something drastic changes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 54 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters. Don’t judge based on the last two years. No matter what the Rochester airport says, the last 2 years have been terrible. We usually get some big snow storms in Rochester with long stretches of snow cover. We are in a bad stretch or seeing the results of GW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, PerintonMan said: Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters. You should move to Caribou if you love snow cover and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2020 Author Share Posted December 6, 2020 Could always head to the mountains of Italy 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Could always head to the mountains of Italy Just go to Marquette =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Don’t judge based on the last two years. No matter what the Rochester airport says, the last 2 years have been terrible. We usually get some big snow storms in Rochester with long stretches of snow cover. We are in a bad stretch or seeing the results of GW Rochester has something missing in my NYC area and even, more often now, in Boston. It has a constant winter feel. The overcast sky. The continued stray flakes. The anticipation of a gift from the lakes or a fine result from a storm that would water our all ready bleak cold season coastal yards. No, P M, when it comes to winter, Rochester is indeed blessed, As always.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: You should move to Caribou if you love snow cover and cold. I'd love to. Was up that way (Fort Kent) for the first time last January on our yearly snowmobile trip. It was awesome. Every day can cold with no worries of snow disappearing right in front of your eyes. Even besides the great riding we had. Just driving around town and seeing the snow banks at the end of driveways, that you could tell had been there for some time brought back childhood memories from the 90s. I know you always remember the good in things, but growing up in the 90s it seemed like we always had snow banks and snow on the ground to play with. I mean sure there may have been one warm winter here and there but if you had one you could count on next winter to right the ship. I am so disappointed thinking about this winter that may not happen along with all the future winters that may never happen....time to try out this new maple whisky I picked up today...thanks a lot guys, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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