BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 Whiteface summit has snow depth of 11" currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 Euro is a whole lot of ZZZzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 In the 2000s this are was receiving Oswego style snow lol Like 150" a year, now in the 2010s they are hitting 200"-300"routinely lol Pulaski has been the total opposite.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Fulton would be good for a 200" season every few years or so, haven't had one in the last 9 even though they have come close.. Maybe we were just over our heads in the 2000s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 One and only notable LES event so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I saw some pictures at 4k feet of what looked like 10-15" of snow. That likely builds up to around 2-3' or so by next weekend. Almost all precip. above 4k is usually snow if temps average around normal down here. I see virtually no snow between now and this weekend with many places likely going well above normal in the temp department. Where the heck is 20-30 inches of snow coming from!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I see virtually no snow between now and this weekend with many places likely going well above normal in the temp department. Where the heck is 20-30 inches of snow coming from!?! Depends on which model is right, but whatever you see at lower elevations, pretty much double that for 4-5k feet. Also upslope if any semblance of cold air. I'm telling you its a different world up there. I’ll be there December 18-20, next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 This is 3k feet this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 EPS look better than OP runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 1-3" possible overnight Weds, 4-8" across the tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS look better than OP runs They always look good 8-10 days out. This winter is turning into a dud quick especially for us in the BUF metro area. With nothing significant looking likely in the next 7-10 days or so that puts us at mid December already, if we don’t turn the corner quick we start quickly falling by behind in snowfall. With the lake temp dropping pretty rapidly we’re quickly losing out on our “prime time” for big LES when we usually get our best events from mid Nov-Mid January. After that as we’ve discussed numerous times on this forum the winds tend to be more WNW and NW as we head latter into the winter. So areas like ROC and SYR have a better chance to make up for a slow start than BUF does. I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet but if we get to Christmas less than 10” on the season at BUF I think it’s a virtual lock for a well below average snowfall season (less than 75”). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: They always look good 8-10 days out. This winter is turning into a dud quick especially for us in the BUF metro area. With nothing significant looking likely in the next 7-10 days or so that puts us at mid December already, if we don’t turn the corner quick we start quickly falling by behind in snowfall. With the lake temp dropping pretty rapidly we’re quickly losing out on our “prime time” for big LES when we usually get our best events from mid Nov-Mid January. After that as we’ve discussed numerous times on this forum the winds tend to be more WNW and NW as we head latter into the winter. So areas like ROC and SYR have a better chance to make up for a slow start than BUF does. I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet but if we get to Christmas less than 10” on the season at BUF I think it’s a virtual lock for a well below average snowfall season (less than 75”). Okay negative Nancy. The expectations weren't high at all for this year. I said around 80" on the season would be the max. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Okay negative Nancy. The expectations weren't high at all for this year. I said around 80" on the season would be the max. Agree but if we make it to New Years with single digit snow I think even 80” is a stretch. Didn’t someone here (possibly you) post how bad winters usually come in twos? Last year was a dud so it would make sense for this year to be a dud as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Agree but if we make it to New Years with single digit snow I think even 80” is a stretch. Didn’t someone here (possibly you) post how bad winters usually come in twos? Last year was a dud so it would make sense for this year to be a dud as well. Yeah that was me 70-80" was my call. 10-15% below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Depends on which model is right, but whatever you see at lower elevations, pretty much double that for 4-5k feet. Also upslope if any semblance of cold air. I'm telling you its a different world up there. I’ll be there December 18-20, next weekend. Oh the 18-20 weekend. There is some hope then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 21 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Agree but if we make it to New Years with single digit snow I think even 80” is a stretch. Didn’t someone here (possibly you) post how bad winters usually come in twos? Last year was a dud so it would make sense for this year to be a dud as well. I think the thought was that they came in threes? With this one potentially being the last crap one. I believe in the cycles. So far it’s panning out. Certainly we are looking at better odds of a below normal winter at this juncture. Possibly well below normal. Cut a couple Christmas trees today! A tiny swath of snowpack exists in a narrow band through SE Monroe county (Fairport-Victor). Only about a mile wide and only 1/2” deep but it helps with the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think the thought was that they came in threes? With this one potentially being the last crap one. I believe in the cycles. So far it’s panning out. Certainly we are looking at better odds of a below normal winter at this juncture. Possibly well below normal. Cut a couple Christmas trees today! A tiny swath of snowpack exists in a narrow band through SE Monroe county (Fairport-Victor). Only about a mile wide and only 1/2” deep but it helps with the mood. 2017-2019 was good for KBUF https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 HRRR Extra long range has a solid WSW flow develop(and still snowing), we'll see how this looks by tomorrow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Gfs is like groundhogs day lol One after another, at least we see LES behind each one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Midnight runs look active and lots of chances at snow/LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 Going to be a strong band of Lake efect rain/wet snow overnight Tues into weds across WNY. Could see a few inches over higher elevations. Over an Inch QPF in tug region. 6" for you wolf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Going to be a strong band of Lake efect rain/wet snow overnight Tues into weds across WNY. Could see a few inches over higher elevations. Over an Inch QPF in tug region. 6" for you wolf? So the NWS says metro and a sloppy inch or two and the local Mets say south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Look at the HRRR just south of kbuf lol It's been consistent to granted it's the LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Latest map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Look at the HRRR just south of kbuf lol It's been consistent to granted it's the LR.. I will ALWAYS defer to the early lake dynamics...I say it every year and it’s something models and Mets never pick up on...the band placement is generally 5 to 10 miles too far south due to the warmer lake waters bending or curving the band further north. Just as the GFS has a cold bias the meso models have a south bias, at least early in the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I will ALWAYS defer to the early lake dynamics...I say it every year and it’s something models and Mets never pick up on...the band placement is generally 5 to 10 miles too far south due to the warmer lake waters bending or curving the band further north. Just as the GFS has a cold bias the meso models have a south bias, at least early in the season That’s definitley true almost all early season lake effect events land up further north than forecasted. Maybe Hamburg can grab a surprise 2-4” tomorrow morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: That’s definitley true almost all early season lake effect events land up further north than forecasted. Maybe Hamburg can grab a surprise 2-4” tomorrow morning? Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Looks like this may be the last event up here for me 9 days away.. I have the place to the 31st so I could always chill up here if we get a big event before January starts lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like this may be the last event up here for me 9 days away.. I have the place to the 31st so I could always chill up here if we get a big event before January starts lol Congrats wolf! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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