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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Heres the op run. only 228 hrs away.

 

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_neus_38.png

Hey, what’s a week and a half right?  
 

that's a DC/Virginia  to Maine Mauling right there.  Thanks for the visual 4Seasons. 

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5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey, what’s a week and a half right?  
 

that's a DC/Virginia  to Maine Mauling right there.  Thanks for the visual 4Seasons. 

Lock it! 

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Nothing changed overnight. The weenies have visions of KUs dancing in their heads, but that looks to wait. I suppose you can't rule something out towards Dec 5th....but I'd bet against it.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing changed overnight. The weenies have visions of KUs dancing in their heads, but that looks to wait. I suppose you can't rule something out towards Dec 5th....but I'd bet against it.

Blame Tip...he was the one that said 0z changed.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Blame Tip...he was the one that said 0z changed.  

I just mean the overall pattern evolvement. The daily details are meaningless this far out. I feel like any chance of a second wave after the cutter early next week is a Hail Mary.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just mean the overall pattern evolvement. The daily details are meaningless this far out. I feel like any chance of a second wave after the cutter early next week is a Hail Mary.

Yeah not buying it right now. We need to get closer to the first event anyway and figure out how amped or not it ends up because that would impact any potential second wave developing along the stalled boundary. 

Despite the mega amped OP runs, still a good amount of spread in the ensembles for 12/1. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just mean the overall pattern evolvement. The daily details are meaningless this far out. I feel like any chance of a second wave after the cutter early next week is a Hail Mary.

I know/get it.  At least it looks to be much better/an improvement overall after the first few days or week of December.  That’s the encouraging part.  

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

December looks good especially by mid month. That’s not really debatable from this lead time.

Hopefully it sticks...pre-Christmas pattern of 1995 and 1975 are showing up in the objective analogs now.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dec 1995 is probably the best pre holiday stretch....2007 and 2008 had more snow, but each had grinches.

Dec 95 wasn't as nearly as good as the other 3. Only got 13.3" locally which is only slightly above our monthly avg. Whereas we got >25" in Dec 1975, 2007 and 2008. 

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24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Dec 95 wasn't as nearly as good as the other 3. Only got 13.3" locally which is only slightly above our monthly avg. Whereas we got >25" in Dec 1975, 2007 and 2008. 

2007 was great here until the Christmas Eve grinch melted it to bare ground by Christmas morning.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing changed overnight. The weenies have visions of KUs dancing in their heads, but that looks to wait. I suppose you can't rule something out towards Dec 5th....but I'd bet against it.

I have mentioned it a few times in the past, But around the 12/5 date, It has had some decent storms over the years.

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Move that system around 12/1-12/2 another 200 miles to the east and we may have something, Some of the other OP models already show this.

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