Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, north pgh said: For what’s its worth the HRRR is great And its still snowing at that point too. Id be shocked if we got a foot. Thinking more of the lines of 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Rd9108 said: Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. Yeah, seems the newer guidance keeps the 850 low in S. Ohio, preventing it from overwhelming us with warm dry air. Hopefully we get some low visibility banding tomorrow morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Damn. That 2 ft area is just east of AGH County too. Maybe this storm will have some tricks up its sleeve. Throwing precip further back, back building etc. Regardless looks to be at a minimum a high end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. The CMC actually isn't ideal. It is pretty dry on the initial slug of moisture, giving us only 2-3" through 0Z Tuesday. However, the moisture explodes with convection after capture and the CCB sets up over us from 6Z Tuesday until 6Z Wednesday, give or take. That would be 24 hours of deformation snows. If you could combine that feature with a more expansive WAA snowfall, we'd be talking about 12"+ easy. The trough goes negative while we can still feel its influence. The CMC is overamped compared to everything else and very dry on the front end. There are a couple mesoscale models that are also dry, but the HREFs and SREFs both look decent for Allegheny county and points local, at least. I do believe dry air remains a concern. I don't really want to rely on the CCB for our snow, but it can still work out that way if the initial WAA overrunning is minimized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jwilson said: The CMC actually isn't great. It is pretty dry on the initial slug of moisture, giving us only 2-3" through 0Z Tuesday. However, the moisture explodes with convection after capture and the CCB sets up over us from 6Z Tuesday until 6Z Wednesday, give or take. That would be 24 hours of deformation snows. If you could combine that feature with a more expansive WAA snowfall, we'd be talking about 12"+ easy. The trough goes negative while we can still feel its influence. The CMC is overamped compared to everything else and very dry on the front end. There are a couple mesoscale models that are also dry, but the HREFs and SREFs both look decent for Allegheny county and points local, at least. I do believe dry air remains a concern. I don't really want to rely on the CCB for our snow, but it can still work out that way if the initial WAA overrunning is minimized. Thanks for the analysis. I'll be curious to see what the Euro and the short range models start showing. I'll be at work all day tomorrow so I won't really get to enjoy it. Most likely I'll be dealing with crashes on 279 or 28. Hopefully not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Damn. That 2 ft area is just east of AGH County too. Maybe this storm will have some tricks up its sleeve. Throwing precip further back, back building etc. Regardless looks to be at a minimum a high end advisory event. At the very worst, we're probably gonna reach our annual goal of 40", then we have at least 6 weeks of bonus time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Thanks for the analysis. I'll be curious to see what the Euro and the short range models start showing. I'll be at work all day tomorrow so I won't really get to enjoy it. Most likely I'll be dealing with crashes on 279 or 28. Hopefully not though. Sorry, I'll show it a little better here. That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area. Very close. Next frame is more important to see how it evolves. If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates. We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely. A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals. However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall. I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, jwilson said: Sorry, I'll show it a little better here. That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area. Very close. Next frame is more important to see how it evolves. If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates. We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely. A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals. However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall. I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks. Great analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, jwilson said: Sorry, I'll show it a little better here. That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area. Very close. Next frame is more important to see how it evolves. If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates. We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely. A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals. However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall. I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks. I agree I'd rather get our snow from the primary. Seems like the CMC is the only model showing this type of evolution for us. Snow is gonna be falling during the day thats a win in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If we get 6" officially out of this, that would be four 6" storms this year. When was the last time we had that many storms pass that mark in one season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Great analysis Agree, nice illustration / explanation. You can literally overlay that in your head with the snow map it spits out and see how the big totals correlate. Ocean water is above average if I remember correctly, that should really help fuel some crazy rates out east and maybe help us s little too if the stars align. I think we all agree let's max out with the primary, then anything from the ccb is dessert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Channel 4 calling for 2-4". Leaving this here for posterity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still a general 6-10 on the euro. Looks like the furthest sw part of the state gets the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 After digesting all of the guidance, my first and only call will be 8.7" officially at KPIT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 ^ I have 8.3" at KPIT. 6-8" down here along the Mon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21 minutes ago, Mailman said: Interesting they have this, because they dropped the expected map to 4”, lol, and introduced rain and mix back into the point and click forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Interesting they have this, because they dropped the expected map to 4”, lol, and introduced rain and mix back into the point and click forecast. Their forecasts aren’t aligned...at all lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Their forecasts aren’t aligned...at all lol. Shift changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Shift changes Honestly happens way too often. Don’t really want to go down this route again but when I read our discussions compared to neighboring offices I’m pretty amazed at the difference in detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 HRRR still holding strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM looks good to me. Guess it's game time. Best of luck to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity87 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: Honestly happens way too often. Don’t really want to go down this route again but when I read our discussions compared to neighboring offices I’m pretty amazed at the difference in detail. It's brutal. They butchered last storm as well. Dropped the expected for absolutely zero reason when all models were showing over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymortyx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 how we looking folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymortyx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 wow HRRR has 10-18". we'll see if it caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, rickymortyx said: how we looking folks? Depends what model you look at lol. In all seriousness I'd say 6-8 would be a good guess. If everything plays out right we could get 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I haven’t really followed this because I honestly expected slop, but I think 6-10 is reasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I haven’t really followed this because I honestly expected slop, but I think 6-10 is reasonable. This is my fear as well. Need to watch the 850 levels tomorrow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Looks like the initial slug is trending south on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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