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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


north pgh
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With temps being the biggest question, specifically how quickly the column cools, the NWS outlook is reasonable. 

Just an OT side note, but it's kinda funny how the algorithm for these model snow maps make most of Allegheny county a giant UHI.

In reality it's mostly just the valley floors, that lose a lot of snowfall accumulation. Obviously these maps are taken with a giant grain of salt, just something I've noticed the past few years.

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Can’t complain about a 1-3 to start Meteorological Winter. This will be interesting to see how fast temperatures can crash.

Afterwards, pattern looks active. Given it’s still early and LaNina favored climo, cold air might be problematic but at least for now doesn’t appear we will be in a shutout pattern to start the season.

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Other than '17-'18 (13.3"), we've had a brutal run for December snow over the last six years.  If this season unfolds as expected, any snow early is worthwhile, even needed.

This won't be the blockbuster we'd all hope for, but perhaps we can muster a minor event out of it for the first accumulation.

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Honestly, chances for 4+ looking pretty good. 

 

I will say, I am a little nervous and skeptical about this one. Relying on the backend  of a system to cool the column enough to start snowing is something that I have a hard time relying on.  It just never seems to happen fast enough without drying out the column at the same time. Model support seems good this time, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the low end of these amounts either. 

Screen Shot 2020-11-30 at 8.41.24 AM.png

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2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Honestly, chances for 4+ looking pretty good. 

 

I will say, I am a little nervous and skeptical about this one. Relying on the backend  of a system to cool the column enough to start snowing is something that I have a hard time relying on.  It just never seems to happen fast enough without drying out the column at the same time. Model support seems good this time, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the low end of these amounts either. 

Screen Shot 2020-11-30 at 8.41.24 AM.png

There was a storm in January I think a few years ago that was a major blizzard up in New York but we had a 5-6 hour backend where we got near an inch an hour. That is also a rarity though, so I agree.

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5 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Honestly, chances for 4+ looking pretty good. 

 

I will say, I am a little nervous and skeptical about this one. Relying on the backend  of a system to cool the column enough to start snowing is something that I have a hard time relying on.  It just never seems to happen fast enough without drying out the column at the same time. Model support seems good this time, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the low end of these amounts either. 

Screen Shot 2020-11-30 at 8.41.24 AM.png

I think the main difference here is the storm stalls out for a bit once we get on the cold side. That combined with some lake enhancement should prolong the window vs a storm taking the same track that just zips off to the NE. Not saying to expect high end of any of the totals but I have more confidence than usual given the setup.

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23 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Was anyone else getting excited to see the Steelers Ravens play in the snow Tuesday? I was.  Now moved to Wednesday. That Blows. We have not had snow for a home Steeler game in like 15 years. 

Absolutely I was set to sit by the fireplace and call off Wednesday morning! So frustrating 

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