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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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Just now, Rd9108 said:

Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. 

Yeah, seems the newer guidance keeps the 850 low in S. Ohio, preventing it from overwhelming us with warm dry air.

Hopefully we get some low visibility banding tomorrow morning/afternoon.

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17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Great trend on the newest CMC too. 0z had us around 4-5. 12z is around 8-10. It once again nukes south central PA with 3 ft. Crazy. 

The CMC actually isn't ideal.  It is pretty dry on the initial slug of moisture, giving us only 2-3" through 0Z Tuesday.  However, the moisture explodes with convection after capture and the CCB sets up over us from 6Z Tuesday until 6Z Wednesday, give or take.  That would be 24 hours of deformation snows.  If you could combine that feature with a more expansive WAA snowfall, we'd be talking about 12"+ easy.  The trough goes negative while we can still feel its influence.

The CMC is overamped compared to everything else and very dry on the front end.  There are a couple mesoscale models that are also dry, but the HREFs and SREFs both look decent for Allegheny county and points local, at least.  I do believe dry air remains a concern.  I don't really want to rely on the CCB for our snow, but it can still work out that way if the initial WAA overrunning is minimized.

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Just now, jwilson said:

The CMC actually isn't great.  It is pretty dry on the initial slug of moisture, giving us only 2-3" through 0Z Tuesday.  However, the moisture explodes with convection after capture and the CCB sets up over us from 6Z Tuesday until 6Z Wednesday, give or take.  That would be 24 hours of deformation snows.  If you could combine that feature with a more expansive WAA snowfall, we'd be talking about 12"+ easy.  The trough goes negative while we can still feel its influence.

The CMC is overamped compared to everything else and very dry on the front end.  There are a couple mesoscale models that are also dry, but the HREFs and SREFs both look decent for Allegheny county and points local, at least.  I do believe dry air remains a concern.  I don't really want to rely on the CCB for our snow, but it can still work out that way if the initial WAA overrunning is minimized.

Thanks for the analysis. I'll be curious to see what the Euro and the short range models start showing. I'll be at work all day tomorrow so I won't really get to enjoy it. Most likely I'll be dealing with crashes on 279 or 28. Hopefully not though. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Damn. That 2 ft area is just east of AGH County too. Maybe this storm will have some tricks up its sleeve. Throwing precip further back, back building etc. Regardless looks to be at a minimum a high end advisory event. 

 

 

At the very worst, we're probably gonna reach our annual goal of 40", then we have at least 6 weeks of bonus time.

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6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Thanks for the analysis. I'll be curious to see what the Euro and the short range models start showing. I'll be at work all day tomorrow so I won't really get to enjoy it. Most likely I'll be dealing with crashes on 279 or 28. Hopefully not though. 

Sorry, I'll show it a little better here.

E0YIW2y.png

That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area.  Very close.  Next frame is more important to see how it evolves.

 

rx6WRJ1.png

If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates.

 

k22TNzj.png

We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely.  A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals.  However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall.  I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks.

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1 minute ago, jwilson said:

Sorry, I'll show it a little better here.

E0YIW2y.png

That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area.  Very close.  Next frame is more important to see how it evolves.

 

rx6WRJ1.png

If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates.

 

k22TNzj.png

We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely.  A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals.  However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall.  I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks.

Great analysis 

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Just now, jwilson said:

Sorry, I'll show it a little better here.

E0YIW2y.png

That 700H "jet" almost orients itself right toward our area.  Very close.  Next frame is more important to see how it evolves.

 

rx6WRJ1.png

If we could get that motion to orient more W-E instead of NE-SW, we'd hit those better rates.

 

k22TNzj.png

We miss the ideal frontogenesis and convection, but just barely.  A strong enough easterly fetch could get us those bigger totals.  However, like I said, I don't want to rely on the placement of this feature, and the CMC is by far the most intense with it, overall.  I'd rather get more of our precip from the first round with the primary and hope for bonus snows after the coastal cranks.

I agree I'd rather get our snow from the primary. Seems like the CMC is the only model showing this type of evolution for us. Snow is gonna be falling during the day thats a win in itself. 

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20 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Great analysis 

Agree, nice illustration / explanation. You can literally overlay that in your head with the snow map it spits out and see how the big totals correlate. Ocean water is above average if I remember correctly, that should really help fuel some crazy rates out east and maybe help us s little too if the stars align.

I think we all agree let's max out with the primary, then anything from the ccb is dessert.

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly happens way too often. Don’t really want to go down this route again but when I read our discussions compared to neighboring offices I’m pretty amazed at the difference in detail.

It's brutal. They butchered last storm as well. Dropped the expected for absolutely zero reason when all models were showing over 6"

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