Tropical Storm Eta

[TPAwx]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Euro finally bringing ETA across Cuba. Took it longer than just about every other model.  It has not been great with TC tracks this year.

12z GFS has landfall in the Keys, up the spine and then out off Tampa Bay, and then landfall in the Panhandle.  OK

[PSLwx]

19 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

12z GFS has landfall in the Keys, up the spine and then out off Tampa Bay, and then landfall in the Panhandle.  OK

This is so #2020.

[olafminesaw]

Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity

[Amped]

Just now, TPAwx said:

12z GFS has landfall in the Keys, up the spine and then out off Tampa Bay, and then landfall in the Panhandle.  OK

Anything but yesterdays 12z euro which had it ducking under the troff.    That was a practically impossible stunt.

[JasonOH]

2 hours ago, wkd said:

He said it NEARLY stalled.

I even find that unlikely.  I don’t think that dude is a good source at all. If that was the case I would have heard about it by now.

[olafminesaw]

Oof. Still stalled out too

 

[Derecho!]

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is it possible that the reason Eta was weaker than satellite suggested because of how far south it is? I don't know much about the physics of hurricanes, but I ask because I was wondering if the coriolis effect only played a role in development or also in maintaining intensity

No, not at all. In other basins extremely powerful tropical cyclones occur closer to the equator than Eta. Haiyan was 4 degrees closer to the equator than Eta, for example. 

And even the development thing is a myth - the Atlantic is the oddball basin in having so little development close to the equator - and that's because the ITCZ is so far north in the Atlantic during tropical season  not a  "lack of Coriolis." 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Oof. Still stalled out too

 

It's been making more progress west the past few hours.   It stalled just long enough to bust my prediction that the new eyewall would not have a chance to takeover. 

[wxmx]

Just now, Amped said:

It's been making more progress west the past few hours.   It stalled just long enough to bust my prediction that the new eyewall would not have a chance to takeover. 

It's even gaining some latitude in the short term, that enhances the probability of Puerto Cabezas/Bilwi being in the northern eyewall, plus the highest surge.

[Windspeed]

Definitely an improving satellite presentation before landfall.

[the ghost of leroy]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Definitely an improving satellite presentation before landfall.

What’s the raw T?

[JasonOH]

10 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

What’s the raw T?

5.1

[hawkeye_wx]

Appears to have completed its ERC just as it moves inland.

[TexMexWx]

Pretty sure it's got the right front quadrant nailing Puerto Cabezas right now. Unfortunate how it's smashing into the only big population center in the area. Also seen even more videos of flash flooding already.

[olafminesaw]

We seem to have landfall

[saltysenior2]

any chasers there ??

 

[dan11295]

6 minutes ago, saltysenior2 said:

any chasers there ??

 

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

[yotaman]

27 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

Not to mention how dangerous Nicaragua is to Americans.

[Prospero]

45 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

Plus without reliable cellular or internet access, why be there. Videos uploaded days later would not have the views.
From what I can tell there are no weather stations to see.

[Amped]

He doesn't officially state why they turned back, but sounds like  it was rough.

 

[Crocodile23]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Oof. Still stalled out too

 

I've seen these pictures some days ago on Philippines with typhoon Goni.

 

[Prospero]

11 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said:

I've seen these pictures some days ago on Philippines with typhoon Goni.

 

Doubt we will see anything from here for a while. We have sats to watch.

In time some pictures will show up.

[Prospero]

Big change from not so many hours ago:

 

[dbullsfan]

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Big change from not so many hours ago:

 

Seems like a lot of different routes all leading to impacts on the west coast of Florida, don’t get much action on this coast. 

[Prospero]

17 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Seems like a lot of different routes all leading to impacts on the west coast of Florida, don’t get much action on this coast. 

This year we have not even been in a single warning. That kind of makes it scary for us! 2020 is not over yet!

[sojitodd]

3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Big change from not so many hours ago:

 

Ever closer to Louisiana...

[turtlehurricane]

I've been in the cone since the afternoon advisory, with a tropical storm projected to be in the Florida Straits on Sunday. 

I don't remember the last time I was in a cone in November. It is quite remarkable.

Ultimately, this reminds me of Hurricane Mitch, which ended up coming across South Florida as a tropical storm. HWRF/HMON show a similar scenario with a tropical storm hitting South Florida, although the scenario is a bit different since it zig zags back into into the Gulf. 

Most notable thing is the tremendous rain that is possible. It's been a wet year here, and this would lead to extreme flooding.

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
523 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move into Nicaragua
and through Honduras tonight into Wednesday before moving back
into the Northwest Caribbean Sea by end of this week. NHC is then
forecasting the system to move into the Florida Straits this
weekend. The long range models are showing a ridge of high
pressure over the southeast United States to move east into the
Atlantic waters, as a trough of low pressure develops over the
Gulf of mexico and moves northeast into the Florida Peninsula.
This will allow for deep tropical moisture to work into South
Florida from the Caribbean Sea late this week into this weekend
where the PWAT values in the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range which at the
maximum value for the PWAT values fro this time of year leading
to the possibility of heavy rainfall across the region.

This means that showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be
capable of producing very heavy rainfall this weekend. At this
time it looks like forecasting at this time around 3 to 7 inches
for the west coast metro areas to 7 to 15 inches for the east
coast metro areas with isolated amounts up to 20 inches mainly
between Friday early next week. Will continue to monitor the the
forecast model runs on the potential of heavy rainfall for South
Florida this weekend, and if trends continue then a Flood Watch
may be needed late this week for this weekend.

[yoda]

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta?  or a new TC entirely?

[Windspeed]

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta?  or a new TC entirely?

It's not crossing into a new basin. Just like an LLC degenerating into an open wave and then reclosing/generating back into a TC, or a PT/ET reacquiring warm core characteristics, it will retain the name. Examples being Harvey, Paulette, etc. If Eta's remnant low/gyre redevelops into a TC in the NW Caribbean, it will retain the name.

 

Beyond remnants crossing into a new basin, examples of when a name wouldn't be retained are if a remnant TC low gets absorbed or phased with an ET or mid-latitudinal frontal low, or a TC develops out of a new surface low within a lingering frontal boundary, as has occurred off the US eastern seaboard with some GOM landfalls.

[Windspeed]

We usually leave the highest intensity at landfall in the topic for discussion, but since Eta is likely to regenerate by this weekend, I am going to update the title to current status for future restrengthening.