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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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Chiefs game tomorrow afternoon should be snowy in Denver. I have my doubts how far any frozen precip gets in this area. KS and NW MO look like good spots, and W OK.

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Norman put out a watch for Western and Central Oklahoma for ice.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
  one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Oklahoma and
  northern Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

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I joked a few days ago about a crippling Ice Storm because ya know... 2020 but now the 0z NAM has come into range with 2+ inches of ice. This along with leaves still being on most trees would be pretty devastating. I do think its being bullish jumping on board with that kind of outcome even though the GFS has been showing some kind of Ice Storm for several days now. Something will happen but 2+ inches of ice seems farfetched.

zr_acc.us_sc.png

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Ice Storm warning for much of SW, Central and North Central Oklahoma. Half an inch to an inch of ice expected. 

 

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4 hours ago, cstrunk said:

OKC sitting at 29F with quite a bit of precip overhead... how's that treating y'all up there??

It's about 32-33 here. Trees have a glaze on them but streets and everything are ok. Saw OK has 200,000 people without power.

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It was looking like it would be an extended stretch of boring and warm after this, but the 12z GFS and CMC decided to pop a -EPO in about 10 days, which would result in downstream troughing and a dump of cold down the Plains. We'll see.

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10 hours ago, JoMo said:

It was looking like it would be an extended stretch of boring and warm after this, but the 12z GFS and CMC decided to pop a -EPO in about 10 days, which would result in downstream troughing and a dump of cold down the Plains. We'll see.

I think we enter a warmer pattern after this cool shot Sunday. My philosophy is to always watch the euro. It's not a perfect model, but definitely better than most. This real cold shot originated from a minor warming event in stratosphere. 

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6 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I think we enter a warmer pattern after this cool shot Sunday. My philosophy is to always watch the euro. It's not a perfect model, but definitely better than most. This real cold shot originated from a minor warming event in stratosphere. 

It will be warmer for a bit, but even the Euro EPS has come around to more of a -EPO look. I don't get the Ensembles, so not sure what it does after this, whether it dumps the cold in the west or what.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

The 06z GFS preps for another ice storm.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46.png

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That bright thing in the sky decided to show back up today. So much rain!

The -EPO looks to build in about 9-10 days, but the first push of cold air looks to be directed into the western US. Maybe in time it will bleed east. We'll see!

  • Thanks 1

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47 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Anybody got any positive thoughts on the next 6 weeks or so?  I'm not reading anything good thru January, maybe beyond.   Wondering if I should start thinking about 21-22 yet.

We got some hail last night. I consider that winter weather at this point. 

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3 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

After going on nearly 6 lackluster winters in a row, I am learning not to get my hopes up for an eventful winter around here. lol

Me,  either.  Wondering if winters are over. 

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6 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Me,  either.  Wondering if winters are over. 

Same, getting use to it now as depressing as it is lol. Seems to be following the same setup as the last few seasons, we were fairly cold last october then stupid warm in November and December here last year...same ole same ole, meh whatever ya know. Hope you're doing good man!

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

The 00z Euro was a beauty. Too bad it's not 24 hours out so it won't happen, heh

Yeah definitely something brewing for this time period....glad to see activity in here.

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