Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
 Share

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners.

I actually have a pretty good feeling about seeing some falling snow out of this one.  As somebody mentioned earlier this is not some big wound up system that normally screws us at the last minute.   It's more of a wave coming thru that we typically see in Nina yrs.  Hope I'm not wrong. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I actually have a pretty good feeling about seeing some falling snow out of this one.  As somebody mentioned earlier this is not some big wound up system that normally screws us at the last minute.   It's more of a wave coming thru that we typically see in Nina yrs.  Hope I'm not wrong. 

I'm really worried about temps. 850's came in a bit warmer. Also surface temps are going to hang above freezing, there appears to be a cold enough layer at 925 MB though, assuming the 850's stay below freezing (down there)

This is also based on the lift being shown on the NAM panning out. Temps drop a few degrees under the precip shield. If the precip shield is weaker due to not as much lift/dynamic cooling than the model anticipates then it could wind up as more of a rain/snow mix, and maybe rain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, HRRR and even the Canadian are saying its happening and upping totals/coverage overall. Might even be getting some convective thundersnow out of this. Temps are also trending colder. Though to be realistic I do think some of these totals seen here are overdoing it. Might cut the totals in half to get our real amounts due to the warm ground temps causing melting and compacting.

EDIT:  When you go back in and look at the Kuchera Ratio I think those will be closer to our actual amounts.

NAMNSTSGP_prec_snow_060.png

HRRRSGP_prec_snow_048.png

RAPSGP_prec_snow_051.png

NAMSGP_prec_snow_084.png

snku_acc.us_sc.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. 

Tues system still has considerable spread.

Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. 

Tues system still has considerable spread.

Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS. 

Noticed that as well.  Some hope in this pattern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...