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Major Hurricane Delta

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Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation 
does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would 
expect for a major hurricane.

 

Very interesting.

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Dropsonde data suggests that the pressure jumped 10mb from 963 to 973 from the second to the third pass... seems off?

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Interesting to see the moderate weakening observed by the hurricane hunters this evening with winds now down to 130 mph (just barely Cat 4). However, in the last hour or so, there have been indications of an eye trying to form, which is often a sign of intensification. The Yucatan could use a break, although 130 mph is still a big deal. Beyond there, no real change as the forecast is still for a Cat 3 hurricane to strike the central LA coast Friday night (120-125 mph) - the center of the track has landfall near Marsh Island, just south of Lafeyette and about 100 miles west of New Orleans and 90 miles east of Lake Charles. Let's see if tonight's models make any big moves on track or intensity.  

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Seems a lot of chasers spent a ton of money on last minute tickets to chase a cat 1 at best 

Thanks for that wonderful insight. Really added a lot to the conversation.:scooter:

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41 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy.

I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads  here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. 

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3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads  here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. 

true.  if people stopped stupidly replying to me we could make some progress here.

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

It's difficult to make much out of Delta's internal structure at that range from Cuban radar.
b031bb18439bd230e30f91afb060985e.gif

It appears the eye went directly over Puerto Moreles. Winds are picking up now.

image.thumb.png.22dd1abc3385eed19b770b10da3de589.png

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609 
WTNT61 KNHC 071054 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
545 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected header time and time in the summary block

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations 
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along 
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos 
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110 
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. 

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported 
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in 
the center. 

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak 
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170 
km/h). 

SUMMARY OF 545 AM CDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity.

Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable.

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There is an upper ridge over the E GOM where the influence of upper ENE flow combined with strong mid-level flow had Delta in a region of higher shear the past 18 hours. Shear should (stating at least based on modeling because that hasn't worked out great as of late ) weaken as Delta moves under the western extension of the upper ridge. A strong poleward jet outflow channel will become dominate at the 200 hPa level over the ECONUS downstream to enhance Delta's outflow. SSTs are still quite warm, 29-30°C in the central GOM along the forecast track. If Delta manages to maintain good internal structure, it could go through a second round of rapid intensification somewhere within the 24-60 hrs range before moving over cooler 26-27°C surface layer just south of the north-central GOM.9beee83f273db5bf4b2ced48b2eceb4d.jpg&key=2dcfcc185af0400350e4ac5982e2b3154e71a55a257e819ce2ac1e0644cdf869677cba4d5666031dac1e91fa6f95fe63.jpg&key=01c3104863c2100a3f96c918aff529901a4a53d71970f49fc786736b156e4f054fc6c9576434f534308406db92b19fab.jpg&key=062d7ecb5f3e42907272b0082612bdfad9430199e2d899e890ffda84ce5cfbaf

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