the_other_guy Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 The smoke (or high clouds) never allowed it to get as warm as predicted. Happened about 2 PM. That said, quite mild at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs. Making it 55degs. , or about -2.0. 64*(91%RH) here at 6am. 66*(76%RH) by 9am. 67*(64%RH) by Noon. 69*(60%RH) by 3pm. 65*(61%RH) by 6pm. 62*(72%RH) by 9pm. Delta's leftovers[34.3N 87.6W]: NAM 3", GEM 2.8", GFS 1.8", EURO 1.7", SREF 2.0"---heaviest about 11am tomorrow. Could start by 5pm today. More tropical activity in the Carribean by Oct. 21st.? Similiar to Sandy by Oct. 27th?? Deep trough in Midwest like Sandy setup---I think. It was the 500mb connection, in the upper atmosphere,(and blocking) that pulled Sandy back to the EC, they said. Let's see first if we even get a tropical system there by the 21st. to ponder over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Stronger Western Atlantic Ridge during the first 10 days of October than the models forecast. So the forecast for a cooler than normal start verified as +1 to +3 across the region. We have seen this model forecast bias frequently in recent years with the record SST warmth to our east. EWR...+1.1 NYC...+1.4 LGA....+2.2 JFK....+1.6 BDR...+2.9 ISP.....+2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 11 hours ago, jfklganyc said: The smoke (or high clouds) never allowed it to get as warm as predicted. Happened about 2 PM. That said, quite mild at 8pm I was right at the smoke line for a while yesterday, it was so cool seeing a straight line across the sky with vivid blue on one side and dingy beige on the other. It was 6* warmer on the sunny side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I was right at the smoke line for a while yesterday, it was so cool seeing a straight line across the sky with vivid blue on one side and dingy beige on the other. It was 6* warmer on the sunny side. It was mostly high clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Morning thoughts... Partly sunny skies will yield to increasing clouds. Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will begin to overspread the region late in the day or during the evening. Before then, temperatures will likely reach the middle and even upper 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 69° Yesterday, Atlanta picked up a daily record 4.55" rainfall (old record: 3.42", 2018) from the remnants of Delta. A general 1"-3" rainfall remains likely across the region with some locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Yesterdays highs 10/10 PHL: 74 ACY: 74 LGA: 73 EWR: 73 BLM: 73 TTN: 72 New Brnswck: 72 JFK: 71 TEB: 71 NYC: 71 ISP: 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 Clouds ahead of the remnants of Delta overspreading the area. Rain arrived this evening and heaviest rains look overnight into the early afternoon tomorrow. Widespread 2 inches (+). Slow to clear front out Tuesday before some more dry and sunny weather Wed - Friday (near normal). ECM continues to show a chilly but brief weekend (10/17-18) before the back and forth col warm follows the week of 10/19. Looks overall warm between a warmth and cool shots bias cool northwest of the region with stronger perhaps longer east coast ridging towards the last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 11, 2020 Share Posted October 11, 2020 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: It was mostly high clouds The color was that brownish beige and it had the flat look rather than the crispness that was on the north side of the line but yes it was more clouds than smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 As of 8 pm EDT, rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta has now reached Philadelphia. Rainfall from Delta will likely impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A widespread 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Tomorrow will see temperatures remain largely in the upper 50s to near 60° in much of the region. Nevertheless, generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +11.99. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.329. On October 10 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.681 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.719. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 10/11 ACY: 70 JFK: 69 LGA: 68 New Brnswck: 68 EWR: 68 BLM: 67 NYC: 67 PHL: 67 TEB: 66 TTN: 66 ISP: 66v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs. Making it 56degs., or about -2.0 to -3.0. 54*(83%RH) here at 6am, rain. 52*(85%RH) by 7:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 The coolest temperatures should remain to our west as the WAR continues to flex with the warm SSTs to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 That will likely be a problem into early winter at least-the warm SST tends to make it hard for cold to hit and hold in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Morning thoughts... Delta’s remnants will produce a rainy day with a chilly east-northeast to northeast wind. Temperatures will likely be confined to the 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will depart tomorrow and the sun will return, along with a rebound in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: That will likely be a problem into early winter at least-the warm SST tends to make it hard for cold to hit and hold in the east The WAR has been regularly verifying stronger than forecast with the record SSTs since late 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Ghost of Sandy on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Remnants of Delta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Two photos from late this morning from the rain and breezes associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 After a few warm dry days Wed (10/14) and Thu (10/15) front comes through Friday and ECM still has a brief 48 hour frost / freeze chilly weather this coming Sat (10/17) and Sun (10/18). back and forth with more warmth 10-/19 - 10/22 with more chill pushing east briefly by 10/23. We'll see looks bias warm on the coast with the core of the cool west into GL/MW/OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Picked up 0.73" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track. 06z GFS has it east of Cape Hatteras at 348 hours. 12z GFS has it west of Key West at 342 hours. It’s an interesting thought anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Up to 0.81" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 Maybe something brewing for late week as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 For the most part, rainfall from Hurricane Delta's remnants was below what had previously been modeled. Through 8 pm, storm total rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 2.11" Baltimore: 1.32" Bridgeport:0.18" Islip: 0.94" New York City: 0.80" Newark: 0.71" Philadelphia: 0.80" Poughkeepsie: 0.25" Washington, DC: 1.50" Additional light rain and showers will depart tomorrow. In response to a return of sunshine, temperatures will rebound well into the 60s. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +11.28. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.107. On October 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.781 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Picked up 0.83" of rain for the day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 62degs. Making it 57degs., or just Normal. Seems the BN period will not start now till the 22nd---instead of the 17th. A waiting for the bus on a discontinued route scenario may be in the works. lol. 57*(99%RH) here at 6am. 60*(97%RH) by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, wdrag said: Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th. Yeah, extremely amplified pattern coming up. Looks like temperatures rebound back into the 70s Thursday. Then a strong storm that you mentioned with wind and rain. Models have a 590 dm+ ridge around Newfoundland which is close to the record for this time of year near 5 SD. That ridge builds westward over the Northeast day 6-10 for more milder than normal temperatures. Then we’ll have to watch for potential tropical development in the SW Caribbean later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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