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Tropical Storm Beta

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000
WTNT42 KNHC 180243
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL222020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force 
Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat 
elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and 
pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055.  
The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep 
convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, 
and that remains the initial intensity.

As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly 
northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt.  A positively 
tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern 
Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward 
the north-northeast during the next 36 hours.  The trough is 
expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric 
high building over the south-central United States.  The high should 
force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 
and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ 
northeastern Mexico coast by day 5.  There is lower-than-normal 
confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant 
spread among the track guidance.  However, the models do agree on 
the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is 
unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period.  This 
new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the 
intensity forecast.  Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly 
shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of 
days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius 
and in a very moist environment.  Things change quickly after 48 
hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, 
more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the 
cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5.  The GFS- and ECMWF-based 
SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the 
intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other 
intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity.  As a 
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity 
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less 
favorable environment.  However, it cannot be stressed enough that 
this forecast is highly uncertain.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a 
tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over 
the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2.  While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 22.0N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 22.9N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 23.9N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 24.8N  92.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 25.4N  93.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 25.6N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 25.7N  94.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 26.1N  95.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 26.4N  96.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

024433_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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This storm will require some serious patience this week. GFS and Euro have ticked up intensity and as have some of the intensity guidance. Spending this much time over untouched waters in the gulf one would expect at least a hurricane at some point. Going to be a challenging forecast on all fronts 

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CMC with an even wackier solution than 12z.  Stalls near TX then moves Southeast and stalls near the Yucatan, the starts moving back NW again.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK keeps it farther off the Texas coast, has it becoming a strong hurricane as it heads eastward.

I think that's probably our window for real storm. There will be a period of strong shear and poorly favorable conditions starting late tomorrow and persisting through the weekend. Flow is a bit better aligned as this thing turns around and heads east. 

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And on with the theme of #2020things. Recon got struck by lightning on the way to TD22. We'll have to wait and see what's going on under the hood of recent robust convection.

 

 

 

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Despite the ongoing GOES 16 data issues, it appears spiral banding is established and spiraling into the circulation center. TD22 is looking more and more like a TS. Perhaps this will be enough for the NHC to upgrade despite having to wait until this afternoon/evening for the next recon flight.
d0b5d55002a5fc059f63616ebfd81d53.gif

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Well that definitely rules out a naming bias. They went as the data suggested best to them. Good old science.

 

They could have been tempted to hold out a bit more for recon and give the name to TD22. Wilfred likely has a short cycle of existence due to future hostile shear. TD22 could end up being a significant landfall event for someone. At any rate, water under the bridge now.

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43 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well that definitely rules out a naming bias. They went as the data suggested best to them. Good old science.

 

They could have been tempted to hold out a bit more for recon and give the name to TD22. Wilfred likely has a short cycle of existence due to future hostile shear. TD22 could end up being a significant landfall event for someone. At any rate, water under the bridge now.

I would be shocked if this isn’t Alpha as we speak. Looks much better on both VIS and IR. I think it was a pure lack of data and unfortunate circumstance that the plane had to turn back, as the only reasons 22 didn’t get named. 

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12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.

That GFS op run would be problematic as it parallels the entirety of the Texas coastline unfortunately landfalling near Lake Charles.

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The Beta will need to come to grips with it's position, it has too understand that not every tropical cyclone can be the best and the most important thing is to do as much as you can with what you have and ignore the mockery of others in order to pursue true happiness...

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14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Ok, Beta it is.  That's a bit disappointing because Alpha is a better name.  Instead, Alpha gets wasted on some stupid subtropical piece of junk near Portugal. :(

Yeah that kinda sucks seriously...Beta sounds like a videogame in it's infancy that still has some bugs in it.

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6 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

I just did! I did it first!

Yeah I guess it starts here. Would be fitting for it to generate attention as a hurricane and then limp onshore as a TS. Flood threat is no joke though.

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27 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

Yeah I guess it starts here. Would be fitting for it to generate attention as a hurricane and then limp onshore as a TS. Flood threat is no joke though.

The flood threat is disconcerting to say the least, Houston hasn't filled in it's yearly flood quota after all.

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