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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Probably should wait until Sunday to spike the football... just in case. LOL

That’s actually VERY true. Nonetheless, I feel good about this one. May not be perfect but we may be looking at a lot more open terrain next week

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Just now, alex said:

That’s actually VERY true. Nonetheless, I feel good about this one. May not be perfect but we may be looking at a lot more open terrain next week

Agreed. I feel better about it. Some solid runs today. Clear colder trend and the upslope aspect is showing up well now. The spot that maxes on the initial thump and then gets into the upslope could really do well. We will see where that bullseye ends up.

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This gives me a warm fuzzy feeling... 12-hour total on Sunday for upslope.

Synoptic part is likely a let down and then we let cyclonic NW flow do it’s thing.

Snow growth zone is pretty wide too on Sunday, vs the much more narrow -12C to -18C layer on Saturday.

31BC1470-5DFC-4B1B-B644-BC38930E6305.thumb.png.2e8f66e6ae996fc604d28e9dc4d389f6.png

That’s great PF – 0.5”+ of L.E. would be a significant addition to the snowpack at the resorts.  Of course, it looks like it’s a NAM-based accumulations map, so it’s presumably overdone on L.E. unless they have fixed that issue.

The good news is that whatever happens on the front end of this storm, it’s still likely to be an addition to the L.E. in the snowpack for the mountains.  Whether it’s rain, slop, wet snow, snow, whatever, it doesn’t seem that the warmer parts of this storm really have a combination of L.E., temperatures, and duration around here that the snowpack in the mountains couldn’t handle it.  Even down here in the valley, the snowpack could certainly take some liquid, because it’s actually still somewhat dry.  I was shoveling off our deck the other day, and the snow was still powdery all the way through (I was worried that it would have been wet and adhered to the deck, but it was all dry).  It’s certainly a dense powder (the total snowpack here has a bit over an inch of liquid in it, although I’m not sure when I last cleared the snow from the deck), but there’s still room for some liquid.  I know from being up at the mountain that the snowpack is pretty dry there as well, and even more substantial overall.

How much L.E. are you expecting from the front end of the storm?

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

How much L.E. are you expecting from the front end of the storm?

Probably 0.50-1.00" south of I-89/Winooski Valley.... 0.25-0.50" to the north of 89 on the front side?  The NW cyclonic flow should add more to the north than the south as the event goes on.

The 18z EURO was juicy.  Upper slopes on the Spine should see a decent net gain in total.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-0960400.thumb.png.651b33461b96edae0455f9a7f619e31b.png

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24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

image.thumb.png.7a3c8f0a761053748c6caf26d7484d43.png

I'd honestly give $500 for that to verify at this point, should I go out and just burn a stack of cash in my yard to make it happen? :lol:

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Just now, TheMainer said:

I'd honestly give $500 for that to verify at this point, should I go out and just burn a stack of cash in my yard to make it happen? :lol:

Looks like SLP is ticking east and a couple tics colder as we get closer in, Foothills look to be now in play.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Probably 0.50-1.00" south of I-89/Winooski Valley.... 0.25-0.50" to the north of 89 on the front side?  The NW cyclonic flow should add more to the north than the south as the event goes on.

The 18z EURO was juicy.  Upper slopes on the Spine should see a decent net gain in total.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-0960400.thumb.png.651b33461b96edae0455f9a7f619e31b.png

Thanks PF – I do see that there’s some mention of QPF amounts now in the latest BTV NWS AFD., but I wanted to get your thoughts on the synoptic/upslope L.E. split since you had that map.  It sort of feels like the BTV NWS is in a bit of a holding pattern on this storm with no headline yet, but maybe they’re waiting because the potential outcomes is still so dicey here, or they just consider it one of those storms where the impacts of significance are all so high in elevation that there’s no big concerns for where the bulk of the population lives.  If they’re going to do a headline or any additional advisories, I guess there’s still 24 hours for them to assess model output.

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52 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Upslope signal here is a thing of beauty:

nam3km-ref-frzn-neus-fh36-60.gif

 

 

 

I think you're a strong candidate to jackpot from this one. With the slight tick to a colder solution, I'm feeling more confident that I will do very well during the initial thump (probably a hair better than you) but you'll make up for it with the upslope that follows while I enjoy stray flakes under a partly sunny sky.

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3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Agreed. I feel better about it. Some solid runs today. Clear colder trend and the upslope aspect is showing up well now. The spot that maxes on the initial thump and then gets into the upslope could really do well. We will see where that bullseye ends up.

 

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

00z NAM is really nice for the north country.

 

25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Upslope signal here is a thing of beauty:

So Phin…  as I sit here enjoying your various (enthusiastic) posts in the thread, I’m going to suggest taking a moment to reflect on the state of affairs with regard to the upcoming weather.

I know you’ve been looking for that slam dunk, knock-it-out-of-the-park, wall-to-wall snow, big synoptic storm to hit your NNH place.  It’s not that those don’t happen sometimes, but in my opinion, the real magic up here in the mountains of NNE is the ability for respectable wintry things to happen in many, many different setups/patterns.  I really have no idea if this is a “good” weather pattern, or “bad” weather pattern, because the whole concept seems highly subjective and nuanced anyway, and it gets muddied even more when weenies are involved.  In any event, I’d just say think about where you sit with respect to snow potential for this upcoming storm relative to 99% of the population of the east coast.

We obviously don’t yet know how this storm is going to turn out, but even just the lead up you’re experiencing right now is something you can hopefully stick in your pocket and pull out the next time you’re stressed about how the winter has been going.

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When the skiers and snowboarders write the AFD:

"Froude numbers support blocked flow Saturday night with additional accumulations of 3-5" likely along the western slopes, then unblocked for Sunday with 2-4" on the lee side of the northern Greens. By the end of the event, elevations above 2000 feet look to get the snow we need with totals of a foot or more."

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10 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I'd honestly give $500 for that to verify at this point, should I go out and just burn a stack of cash in my yard to make it happen? :lol:

Waste of money.  You'd be better off spending it at Pittston Farm if you wanted to ride.

From Sunday noon thru 384, GFS shows a grand total of 0.04" qpf for my area.  Has enough cold to put safe ice on the lakes, at least.  Rain followed by weeks of dry cold, everyone's favorite midwinter wx.  :(

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55 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

When the skiers and snowboarders write the AFD:

"Froude numbers support blocked flow Saturday night with additional accumulations of 3-5" likely along the western slopes, then unblocked for Sunday with 2-4" on the lee side of the northern Greens. By the end of the event, elevations above 2000 feet look to get the snow we need with totals of a foot or more."

We’re loving the mountain snowfall details along the spine as always, but most importantly at this stage of the season, it’s good to see that they’re feeling the potential is there to put down that base snow we need.  I didn’t see it in the current discussion, but if they want to discuss the amount of L.E. going into the snowpack, we’re also happy to hear about that.

On that note, I cored the pack here at our site ahead of this next system to see what this system does down here in the valley overall.  The L.E. in the snowpack here came in at 1.01” this morning, which is about what I expected.

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It looks like we’ve gotten to the point where BTV NWS can decide what they want to do with respect to alerts and projected accumulations for incoming Winter Storm Malcolm.  There are Winter Weather Advisories across a lot of the north country, with some Winter Storm Watches farther south.  Projected accumulations through 7:00 P.M. Sunday look like they're topping out in the 12-18” range along the spine based on the shading.  The point forecast here at our site in the valley suggests 4-9” through the period, which seems in synch with the 6-8” shading for our area, and the 10-18” for the Mansfield elevation forecast jives as well.

15JAN21A.jpg

15JAN21B.jpg

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9 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

So Phin…  as I sit here enjoying your various (enthusiastic) posts in the thread, I’m going to suggest taking a moment to reflect on the state of affairs with regard to the upcoming weather.

I know you’ve been looking for that slam dunk, knock-it-out-of-the-park, wall-to-wall snow, big synoptic storm to hit your NNH place.  It’s not that those don’t happen sometimes, but in my opinion, the real magic up here in the mountains of NNE is the ability for respectable wintry things to happen in many, many different setups/patterns.  I really have no idea if this is a “good” weather pattern, or “bad” weather pattern, because the whole concept seems highly subjective and nuanced anyway, and it gets muddied even more when weenies are involved.  In any event, I’d just say think about where you sit with respect to snow potential for this upcoming storm relative to 99% of the population of the east coast.

We obviously don’t yet know how this storm is going to turn out, but even just the lead up you’re experiencing right now is something you can hopefully stick in your pocket and pull out the next time you’re stressed about how the winter has been going.

Phin , just remember those words from your Mr. Miyagi next time your on a snow rage 

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It's def a great upslope pattern coming up...you have the obvious signal behind the current storm system, but then the shortwave that passes through early next week is going to set off another round of upslope just as the first round is dying down....sort of reinvigorates it. Then behind that, you have the clipper shortwave for middle of next week....at the very least, if you don't get a few inches of synoptic snow, the upslope machine is going to wring out any of the moister associated with it.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I as long as I don't have to wax his Subaru wagon.

No!  First clean, then wax.  Wax on, wax off, and don’t forget to clear your mind - lesson not just vehicles only, lesson for whole life.  Whole life have a balance, everything be better.  You live up here in the mountains, so you know the deal; our Subies don’t get daily washes so they can sit in the driveway to get gawked at by the neighbors – they’re too busy doing their real job of actually getting us up our driveway.

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Just now, J.Spin said:

No!  First clean, then wax.  Wax on, wax off, and don’t forget to clear your mind - lesson not just vehicles only, lesson for whole life.  Whole life have a balance, everything be better.  You live up here in the mountains, so you know the deal; our Subies don’t get daily washes so they can sit in the driveway to get gawked at by the neighbors – they’re too busy doing their real job of actually getting us up our driveway.

LOL I was gonna say, my car gets so filthy after one trip up Randolph Hill road and down my road even washing it seems pointless, much less waxing!

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thoughts on Wildcat tomorrow. the nephew is itching to go. things look good but i'm a bit nervous of a heavy rain...thoughts?

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I honestly can't believe GYX doesn't have even an Advisory out for Coos County, population or not.  Feels like the bust potential is there for like a heavy cake tonight.  

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