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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Light snow here but just a dusting, nothing significant. Might be time to whip out the snow gun that I got last year for the Sam Adams commercial that was being shot at my house. The kids want a snow mound to play in, and getting the snow gun out is a sure guarantee that there will be plenty of natural snow and my electricity bill will be a complete waste. :)

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3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I moved up from West Chester in 2014, albeit permanently.

Can't speak for NVT, but around here rentals and long term leases are scarce and most that are available are pricey. But since it seems your young and no attachments(kids, etc) maybe able find a smaller place--studio/1bed, but again not sure about BTV market, but assume stuff is high demand.

Thanks, I looked into it in September and everything seemed pricey or geared towards UVM students.  I'd have to keep looking, I have a potential job opportunity in Saratoga Springs, which at least would get me most of the way to NNE.  Only tied down by my gf, whose only reason to stay in PA is her terminally ill mother. 

 

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Jay was doing long term 2br condo rentals a month ago.  It’s going to be a ghost town with the border closed, so might be worth checking out .

Thanks, having stayed at a Jay ski in ski out condo as a child, I assume they are expensive since they are so nice.  I normally stay at Grampa grunts in Montgomery for 45/night when I go to Jay, obviously not a long-term solution.  I'll look into the condos though. 

Sidenote, Mike Hayes Global head of global marketing at Ben and Jerry's has my dream job, he skis Mansfield all the time.  PF might know him, anyways I wish I could work for him. 

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Very gusty night here. My anemometer is in a very sheltered spot and almost never gets decent gusts, but it managed to register a gust to 42 mph around 7pm this evening. No snow here on the downslope side of the ridge, but winter is roaring back in this evening.

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Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.99” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 17.0

Snow Density: 5.9% H2O

Temperature: 32.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

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Event totals: 3.1” Snow/1.05” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 30.1 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

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Surprised to wake up to a dusting of snow this morning with mood flakes in the air. While we don't get the "real" upslope snows in my location, the surprise dustings are nice to wake up to for someone used to the eastern Massachusetts climate. Last night's wind launched one of my heavy cedar chairs about 20 feet off the front porch, which was perhaps the bigger surprise to wake up to. It got pretty rough up here around 7-8pm last night!

27F and calm with flakes flying right now.

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About 3.5” since last night plus around an inch from yesterday morning.  Still a steady light snow in the air this morning for a real winter feel.  The atmosphere is really wringing out every last drop here.  It’s so light, so not enough to hit the slopes, but man is it tempting.  
 

*ruler courtesy of theft in the middle of my eight year olds virtual school day.

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Event totals: 3.3” Snow/1.05” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 29.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 2.5 inches

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46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Cutter for early next week?   How far into the season can we keep NNE bare?  I'm usually building a snowcover up by now.   Maybe Phin moving up here has started climate change?

Really?  I still think its a bit early to start building a pack.  J. Spin posted some data on this a few pages back.  I tend to think we have some sort of snow around half the time on Thanksgiving, J. Spins data was right around that .  It usually starts over the next week or two.

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Cutter for early next week?   How far into the season can we keep NNE bare?  I'm usually building a snowcover up by now.   Maybe Phin moving up here has started climate change?

Poor Phin, still getting stuck with that stigma.  With a very typical (and reasonably snowy) November thus far, and only about a week to go in the month, I’d say any concerns are unfounded.

Average snow depth for this date at our site is 2.3”, with a median of 1.5”, so this morning’s 3.0” was certainly “typical”.  But, we’re still a week ahead of the average start date for the permanent winter snowpack here.  I think people are coming in a bit misled from the past couple of seasons with regard to when the building of the winter snowpack actually starts around here.  Yes, we’re getting close to the average date, but starting now would still be in the top 1/3 of seasons.  Places with an average snowpack start date this early are probably above 2,000’.  For reference, the average snowpack start date on Mansfield at 3,700’ is November 16th.  We’re certainly past that point, but 3,700’ is way up there in elevation.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Really?  I still think its a bit early to start building a pack.  J. Spin posted some data on this a few pages back.  I tend to think we have some sort of snow around half the time on Thanksgiving, J. Spins data was right around that .  It usually starts over the next week or two.

You’re right, as I noted in my response above, this is definitely on the early side for the snowpack to start in the typical elevations where people live.  The average snowpack start date here at our site is December 2nd, and we’re probably on the early side relative to many valley locations due to early upslope snows helping to get at least some snow down.

As noted, we are above 50% (64.3%) for snow on the ground at Thanksgiving, but not all of that Thanksgiving snow necessarily stuck around to start the winter snowpack.

Here are the winter snowpack start dates and stats for my period of record at this site:

20-Dec-2006

20-Nov-2007

18-Nov-2008

06-Dec-2009

05-Dec-2010

23-Dec-2011

16-Dec-2012

22-Nov-2013

27-Nov-2014

27-Dec-2015

03-Dec-2016

10-Dec-2017

10-Nov-2018

08-Nov-2019

 

Mean: Dec 2

Median:  Dec 4

S.D. 16 days

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And it looks to me, that once the early week rain event (seems like a high chance of this happening whether it moves over head or cuts) moves out of the way....much better conditions for getting some snow and perhaps the start of pack season. Would coincide with what others have said. 

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And it looks to me, that once the early week rain event (seems like a high chance of this happening whether it moves over head or cuts) moves out of the way....much better conditions for getting some snow and perhaps the start of pack season. Would coincide with what others have said. 

Assuming we can squeeze out an inch or so in the slopfests over the next week, I will end up with 12-13 inches so far on the season which is basically right on schedule with the average CoCoRaHS data. It needs to start rapidly ramping up in December to stay on track, however. 

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I assume the horrific winter of 2015-2016 was basically this same shit pattern wire-to-wire? 

Yeah it was pretty terrible....there were a few fleeting moments of snow...esp for SNE (NNE was screwed even worse) in February. But yeah, more or less garbage pattern all winter.

 

My guess is you'll start "permanent" pack season there behind the rainstorm that models have for Dec 1. Decent chance you get upslope behind it with that ULL takings its sweet time to move out, and then hopefully we start adding some synoptic stuff after that.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I assume the horrific winter of 2015-2016 was basically this same shit pattern wire-to-wire? 

No this is much better than 2015-16.

The reality is many of us are above normal snow to date, looks like Randolph is too based on the short record period though.  

In 2015-16 my largest storm at home was like 4”, ha.  This isn’t even close IMO.

This morning at 1500ft would’ve been a major storm for 2015-16.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Crisp and cold out there. 

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I figured you would’ve picked up an inch or two last night, guess it never made it over there.  Had about 3-4” at Stowe at 1,500ft and they had to plow...surprisingly dense, like a lot of graupel. Even white at 750ft but we only got an inch.

We’ve definitely had more frequent coverings and plowable snow over here so that may be skewing my thoughts on NNE.  I think 1,500ft has plowed 4 times now.

If it won’t snow that’s not a bad view on the whole lol.

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