NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

[PhineasC]

Just 24 here. Expected more of a temp rise by now.

[#NoPoles]

I like to watch the temp sensors on the auto road, they usually show a good inversion

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, that 5 inches he measured in mid-October really put him over the top on this analysis.

I have noticed that his measurements are super-accurate to the point that it doesn't always reflect the sensible weather on the ground, if that makes sense. In both of the 5 inch storms for Randolph so far things were so stretched out and marginal there was never more than 3 or so inches OTG at any given time. 

Yeah you are starting to see how the snowfall up here works.  It doesn’t always translate to the ground in the sense that you see with coastal plain snowfall that has a defined beginning and end, and is usually much shorter duration.  Like you can keep adding 0.7” or 1.6” or 1.3” every 12 hours and it all adds up in the cumulative sense, but you could always just have 1-1.5” on the ground the whole time despite a 36-48 hour total of 4”.

Exactly like you say, you’ve got 10” on the annual total and never saw more than 3” on the ground at once.  It’s a nickel and dime pattern built in among larger systems.

But consider that if 200” cumulative falls there, the max depth is still usually like 35-40”, maybe briefly higher unless it’s a true QPF bomb.  Meanwhile in Maryland 2010 they get 40” on the ground out of 70” cumulative.

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you are starting to see how the snowfall up here works.  It doesn’t always translate to the ground in the sense that you see with coastal plain snowfall that has a defined beginning and end, and is usually much shorter duration.  Like you can keep adding 0.7” or 1.6” or 1.3” every 12 hours and it all adds up in the cumulative sense, but you could always just have 1-1.5” on the ground the whole time despite a 36-48 hour total of 4”.

Exactly like you say, you’ve got 10” on the annual total and never saw more than 3” on the ground at once.  It’s a nickel and dime pattern built in among larger systems.

But consider that if 200” cumulative falls there, the max depth is still usually like 35-40”, maybe briefly higher unless it’s a true QPF bomb.  Meanwhile in Maryland 2010 they get 40” on the ground out of 70” cumulative.

#fakesnow

[PhineasC]

59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you are starting to see how the snowfall up here works.  It doesn’t always translate to the ground in the sense that you see with coastal plain snowfall that has a defined beginning and end, and is usually much shorter duration.  Like you can keep adding 0.7” or 1.6” or 1.3” every 12 hours and it all adds up in the cumulative sense, but you could always just have 1-1.5” on the ground the whole time despite a 36-48 hour total of 4”.

Exactly like you say, you’ve got 10” on the annual total and never saw more than 3” on the ground at once.  It’s a nickel and dime pattern built in among larger systems.

But consider that if 200” cumulative falls there, the max depth is still usually like 35-40”, maybe briefly higher unless it’s a true QPF bomb.  Meanwhile in Maryland 2010 they get 40” on the ground out of 70” cumulative.

... in a winter that happens every 500 years or so. LOL

[backedgeapproaching]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you are starting to see how the snowfall up here works.  It doesn’t always translate to the ground in the sense that you see with coastal plain snowfall that has a defined beginning and end, and is usually much shorter duration.  Like you can keep adding 0.7” or 1.6” or 1.3” every 12 hours and it all adds up in the cumulative sense, but you could always just have 1-1.5” on the ground the whole time despite a 36-48 hour total of 4”.

Exactly like you say, you’ve got 10” on the annual total and never saw more than 3” on the ground at once.  It’s a nickel and dime pattern built in among larger systems.

But consider that if 200” cumulative falls there, the max depth is still usually like 35-40”, maybe briefly higher unless it’s a true QPF bomb.  Meanwhile in Maryland 2010 they get 40” on the ground out of 70” cumulative.

Max depth actually looks pretty impressive say compared to the Underhill/JSpin zone.  I feel like 40" range give her take is normally the max there.  This guy is a little higher than Phin's spot and not sure how wooded it is.  Phin's is pretty wide open which will lead to some wind scouring I would think.

[backedgeapproaching]

Pulled up JSpin...

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Max depth actually looks pretty impressive say compared to the Underhill/JSpin zone.  I feel like 40" range give her take is normally the max there.  This guy is a little higher than Phin's spot and not sure how wooded it is.  Phin's is pretty wide open which will lead to some wind scouring I would think.

Yeah I wasn’t talking about a comparison per se (but great data sets), just that normal depth is different than that ratio of snowfall to depth in say areas that just get synoptic snow.  I figured Phins area was 35-40” on average, looks like 42” on that sample size at about 1800ft or whatever exact number that site is.

Compare that to someone like Tamarack who probably isn’t all that far off on max depths (?), but he does it with maybe a bit more than half the annual snowfall.  Tamarack will get 90” of snowfall and still have two feet on the ground on May 1st lol.

Snow globe zones with frequent flakes in the air will rack up measurable and high annual snowfall totals just based on the high number of days with precipitation I guess is what I was getting at, ha.

Thats how the season total can be 10” but you don’t see a depth over 3” at any one time.  A lot of light snowfall events add up real quickly in season totals if you get them every few days.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

... in a winter that happens every 500 years or so. LOL

Yeah maybe longer!

This stretch may not have built the snowpack, but we got to watch snow showers roll through and talk snow shop for 3 days.  In the absence of a real storm it’s at least had that wintry appeal.  Cold and dry isn’t as enjoyable.

[backedgeapproaching]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I wasn’t talking about a comparison per se (but great data sets), just that normal depth is different than that ratio of snowfall to depth in say areas that just get synoptic snow.  I figured Phins area was 35-40” on average, looks like 42” on that sample size at about 1800ft or whatever exact number that site is.

Compare that to someone like Tamarack who probably isn’t all that far off on max depths (?), but he does it with maybe a bit more than half the annual snowfall.  Tamarack will get 90” of snowfall and still have two feet on the ground on May 1st lol.

Snow globe zones with frequent flakes in the air will rack up measurable and high annual snowfall totals just based on the high number of days with precipitation I guess is what I was getting at, ha.

Thats how the season total can be 10” but you don’t see a depth over 3” at any one time.  A lot of light snowfall events add up real quickly in season totals if you get them every few days.

Got it. Right, Tamarack probably has a similar average depth on half the snowfall.  So it's still somewhat "fake"..ha.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Max depth actually looks pretty impressive say compared to the Underhill/JSpin zone.  I feel like 40" range give her take is normally the max there.  This guy is a little higher than Phin's spot and not sure how wooded it is.  Phin's is pretty wide open which will lead to some wind scouring I would think.

It’s very wooded and protected. I know where he lives... LOL

My lot is probably the most cleared on Randolph Hill. Most others are heavily wooded. The CoCoRaHS guy’s spot is epic for retention. Shaded and protected all the time.

 

[backedgeapproaching]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It’s very wooded and protected. I know where he lives... LOL

My lot is probably the most cleared on Randolph Hill. Most others are heavily wooded. The CoCoRaHS guy’s spot is epic for retention. Shaded and protected all the time.

 

Yea, that is what I expected with those depths.  Your probably not going to get those same depths, maybe a shady northside of the house nook...lol.  Obviously it will still be impressive.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea, that is what I expected with those depths.  Your probably not going to get those same depths, maybe a shady northside of the house nook...lol.  Obviously it will still be impressive.

It's worth it for the view. Most of the houses around here just look at a bunch of trees. You wouldn't even know the Northern Presidentials are right there.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's worth it for the view. Most of the houses around here just look at a bunch of trees. You wouldn't even know the Northern Presidentials are right there.

Take the view any day over the pack.  You still get to see it snow, ha.  Your spot reminds me of some of the homes up by the ski area at Spruce Peak at like 1700ft.  They generally face south and are wide open to wind/sun... they’ll get 200” of snow and never build up a deep pack as it gets blown away.  While the calm hardwood forest at 1500ft has 40-60” of depth in late March, those homes and the golf course will start to see the ground after like two sunny and mild days.

Also, this far north you take the southern exposure when you can... both for mental reasons (sun!) and for heating your house during the daytime.

[PhineasC]

23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Take the view any day over the pack.  You still get to see it snow, ha.  Your spot reminds me of some of the homes up by the ski area at Spruce Peak at like 1700ft.  They generally face south and are wide open to wind/sun... they’ll get 200” of snow and never build up a deep pack as it gets blown away.  While the calm hardwood forest at 1500ft has 40-60” of depth in late March, those homes and the golf course will start to see the ground after like two sunny and mild days.

Also, this far north you take the southern exposure when you can... both for mental reasons (sun!) and for heating your house during the daytime.

Yup, I have plenty of protected woods where I expect deep snow to build up. There is a deep gulley by the barn that should fill with several feet of snow. 

[J.Spin]

On 11/18/2020 at 5:47 PM, PhineasC said:

I am legit worried about being the curse. 

With what we’ve seen thus far, you shouldn’t be worried at all… at least up here in the mountains of NNE.  If anything, your arrival has been a shot in the arm for NNE snow.  The area has had multiple October snow events, and now multiple November snow events.  That’s not necessarily that unusual for this area, but October and November can easily be slow months.  I’d argue most spots around here are at least on an average snowfall pace, and many are probably even ahead of average pace.  I know we’re well ahead of average snowfall here at our site.  Average snowfall to this point in the season is only about a half a foot at our location, since the first half, or even two-thirds of November can be pretty lean on snowfall; our average daily snowfall for the first two-thirds of the month is ~0.2”/day.  It’s the last third of the month where the snowfall typically starts to ramp up, averaging close to 1”/day.  I’m seeing total snowfall of 12.7” on the season at the Randolph CoCoRaHS site, and even up there, that’s probably ahead of average pace.

And, as people have been posting, there are multiple potential shots of additional snow appearing on the models.  Sure, the storms aren’t likely to be 100% snow, but at least there’s a decent chance for some snow associated with them, and that’s pretty classic November around here.

If there’s a curse in place for SNE, it’s clearly a result of getting that October snowfall.  They seriously should not have done that, but there’s really no going back now.  It certainly wasn’t on the scale of the infamous Octo-bomb, so I guess there’s hope?  What doesn’t make sense is how you could be related to any sort of curse for SNE; you don’t even live there.  I guess you could be driving through there on your way back and forth to MD, but it’s pretty farfetched to think that you’re the cause of the curse just because you transiently pass through an area.  I definitely wouldn’t worry about it, because it’s much more likely that the October snow is the root cause of the situation vs. any one person.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Got it. Right, Tamarack probably has a similar average depth on half the snowfall.  So it's still somewhat "fake"..ha.

My general take on it is that much of the interior northeast gets similar amounts of synoptic snowfall, regardless of local topography or lack of topography.  Like if you removed all the meso-scale snow, the broader interior New England likely experiences fairly similar snowfall amounts with a general gradient from south to north.  Say NNE snowfall would be a widespread 70-100" on synoptic snow.  The snowfall differences really start to grow when you add in elevation and/or the mesoscale snow aspect.  So a location gets say 90" synoptic and 60" meso-scale (the equivalent of 20 events of 3" each).

I don't know why, I always look at it as synoptic snow vs. mesoscale and try to group events into those categories and see how it affects annual averages.  It's a fun exercise, ha.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

With what we’ve seen thus far, you shouldn’t be worried at all… at least up here in the mountains of NNE.  If anything, your arrival has been a shot in the arm for NNE snow.  The area has had multiple October snow events, and now multiple November snow events.  That’s not necessarily that unusual for this area, but October and November can easily be slow months.  I’d argue most spots around here are at least on an average snowfall pace, and many are probably even ahead of average pace.  I know we’re well ahead of average snowfall here at our site.  Average snowfall to this point in the season is only about a half a foot at our location, since the first half, or even two-thirds of November can be pretty lean on snowfall; our average daily snowfall for the first two-thirds of the month is ~0.2”/day.  It’s the last third of the month where the snowfall typically starts to ramp up, averaging close to 1”/day.  I’m seeing total snowfall of 12.7” on the season at the Randolph CoCoRaHS site, and even up there, that’s probably ahead of average pace.

And, as people have been posting, there are multiple potential shots of additional snow appearing on the models.  Sure, the storms aren’t likely to be 100% snow, but at least there’s a decent chance for some snow associated with them, and that’s pretty classic November around here.

If there’s a curse in place for SNE, it’s clearly a result of getting that October snowfall.  They seriously should not have done that, but there’s really no going back now.  It certainly wasn’t on the scale of the infamous Octo-bomb, so I guess there’s hope?  What doesn’t make sense is how you could be related to any sort of curse for SNE; you don’t even live there.  I guess you could be driving through there on your way back and forth to MD, but it’s pretty farfetched to think that you’re the cause of the curse just because you transiently pass through an area.  I definitely wouldn’t worry about it, because it’s much more likely that the October snow is the root cause of the situation vs. any one person.

LOL I really like this post, but I think it was wise to respond to my post in this thread.

[backedgeapproaching]

I love the every once in a while subdued, dry JSpin SNE burn...

Had an epic one a bunch of years back aimed at Scooter and Weymouth...I cant remember the details, but it was pretty funny.

[backedgeapproaching]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

My general take on it is that much of the interior northeast gets similar amounts of synoptic snowfall, regardless of local topography or lack of topography.  Like if you removed all the meso-scale snow, the broader interior New England likely experiences fairly similar snowfall amounts with a general gradient from south to north.  Say NNE snowfall would be a widespread 70-100" on synoptic snow.  The snowfall differences really start to grow when you add in elevation and/or the mesoscale snow aspect.  So a location gets say 90" synoptic and 60" meso-scale (the equivalent of 20 events of 3" each).

I don't know why, I always look at it as synoptic snow vs. mesoscale and try to group events into those categories and see how it affects annual averages.  It's a fun exercise, ha.

Ha, for sure.  When I moved here I didn't have even the slightest clue about how extreme the microclimates were.  It totally fascinates me, you can spend hours and hours looking at topo maps throughout NE and trying to figure out what pattern and wind directions works best for what area. ( myself for that one) I came from an area in PA where there was just such minimal difference in topography and microclimates that I never even noticed it outside of some elevation events where at 500ft someone had 3" and at 200ft maybe you had  .5" of slop.  It was pretty simple really, the suburbs got more snow than Philly the further W and NW you went and that was that pretty much that. ..lol.

 

 

[PhineasC]

34 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I love the every once in a while subdued, dry JSpin SNE burn...

Had an epic one a bunch of years back aimed at Scooter and Weymouth...I cant remember the details, but it was pretty funny.

I feel like he'd be able to be giving a dry, straightforward scientific lecture at a university and while everyone is diligently taking notes he slowly weaves in some zany theories and thoughts that seem sort of related to the topic but later when you check your notes you are just befuddled.

[mreaves]

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I feel like he'd be able to be giving a dry, straightforward scientific lecture at a university and while everyone is diligently taking notes he slowly weaves in some zany theories and thoughts that seem sort of related to the topic but later when you check your notes you are just befuddled.

That’s probably in his bio at UVM

[bwt3650]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I wasn’t talking about a comparison per se (but great data sets), just that normal depth is different than that ratio of snowfall to depth in say areas that just get synoptic snow.  I figured Phins area was 35-40” on average, looks like 42” on that sample size at about 1800ft or whatever exact number that site is.

Compare that to someone like Tamarack who probably isn’t all that far off on max depths (?), but he does it with maybe a bit more than half the annual snowfall.  Tamarack will get 90” of snowfall and still have two feet on the ground on May 1st lol.

Snow globe zones with frequent flakes in the air will rack up measurable and high annual snowfall totals just based on the high number of days with precipitation I guess is what I was getting at, ha.

Thats how the season total can be 10” but you don’t see a depth over 3” at any one time.  A lot of light snowfall events add up real quickly in season totals if you get them every few days.

Those frequent little events are what makes the northern ski areas so great.  Two 15 inch storms a month and nothing else in between means about 4-5 great ski days and the rest skied off hard pack without snow guns. But give me 20 days of 3-5 inch little snow events once a decent base is established and you have a great month of skiing.  For me, I just love the idea of cold (not brutal) days with snow in the air and a decent pack around.  It just makes it feel like winter and seasons in seasons.  The synoptic monsters are fun to track, but as far as winter appeal, i'd rather the frequency and retention.  What you guys who are veterans of this area pointed out seems to be true so far.  If you add up the totals for the year so far, we are actually doing pretty good. My spot has probably seen around 20" so far and that's October and half of November.  I think the difference is it is too early to expect it to build a pack.  But if its Jan, there's still a solid foot around I bet.  And while the pattern doesn't look great, I could see another decent up-slope event with some of those troughs digging in and a couple of those systems out near the gulf of Maine.  What I've learned up here is that even above normal temps can work sometimes up here, especially with elevation.  

[bwt3650]

4 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Max depth actually looks pretty impressive say compared to the Underhill/JSpin zone.  I feel like 40" range give her take is normally the max there.  This guy is a little higher than Phin's spot and not sure how wooded it is.  Phin's is pretty wide open which will lead to some wind scouring I would think.

Great stats...So helpful in trying to learn about this region.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Great stats...So helpful in trying to learn about this region.

From here you can get his daily reports. He leaves some interesting thoughts on past storms, and also general environmental happenings such as the sap runs and leaf changes. Also, he sometimes provides some local record tidbits for windchills, wind speed, daily snowfall, etc. I like to look at past reports for upcoming periods. Gives you an idea of what to expect in the upcoming few weeks based on what he has seen over the past decade+. He is close to me. It's just a quick walk through another lot to his place so I defer to his obs on all events because I am basically a rodeo clown when it comes to obs.

There is also a new observer between Alex and me. He seems to leave some comments sometimes. Some of his snowfall measurements have me scratching my head a bit. Will watch this one all winter to see if it levels out.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I wasn’t talking about a comparison per se (but great data sets), just that normal depth is different than that ratio of snowfall to depth in say areas that just get synoptic snow.  I figured Phins area was 35-40” on average, looks like 42” on that sample size at about 1800ft or whatever exact number that site is.

Compare that to someone like Tamarack who probably isn’t all that far off on max depths (?), but he does it with maybe a bit more than half the annual snowfall.  Tamarack will get 90” of snowfall and still have two feet on the ground on May 1st lol.

Snow globe zones with frequent flakes in the air will rack up measurable and high annual snowfall totals just based on the high number of days with precipitation I guess is what I was getting at, ha.

Thats how the season total can be 10” but you don’t see a depth over 3” at any one time.  A lot of light snowfall events add up real quickly in season totals if you get them every few days.

Glad you added the lol to that hyperbole, as this past May was the first time here with 1"+ pack.  Latest I've gone with continuous cover was 4/23 in 2001; that month had 47" on the 1st but had only 0.6" for April as the big dog went east and hammered NFLD on 4/1-2.  Max pack for 3 sites:
Season   Randolph   J.Spin   Tam
09-10            59           21          20
10-11            40           40          28
11-12            26           16          19
12-13            36           19          20
13-14            42           25          43
14-15            42           25          31  (The Farmington co-op reached 48" while the New Sharon co-op only hit 23".)
15-16            17           11          14
16-17            54           27          47
17-18            47           26          34
18-19            60           33          41
19-20            39           20          21
Average      42.0        23.9       28.9    

[PhineasC]

CMC gives us a nice little snowstorm right before Thanksgiving, too bad it’s the CMC. GFS is a strung out mess at the same time. 

[ORH_wxman]

14 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I love the every once in a while subdued, dry JSpin SNE burn...

Had an epic one a bunch of years back aimed at Scooter and Weymouth...I cant remember the details, but it was pretty funny.

LOL...I like the October snow reference there. The dry humor is even better coming from Jspin considering how meticulous he is with statistics/data.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wow , it usually takes a few weeks to fill up a whole page of a NNE thread , w PF talking w himself and maybe a stray moose that signed on , and J spin throwing in a couple precise measurement posts . 

[backedgeapproaching]

Well, Phin is certainly driving some chatter..be it political or snow driven...lol.

Plus there are some other newer posters also making the subforum worthy of more than just collecting usplope radar shots.