wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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12 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Completely misses me at jay.  I’m starting to learn how to anticipate what’s coming and the flow a little.  Closest spot that it picks up is probably Richford.  Not sure if it has anything to do with how isolated the snow is sometimes also.  Not always, but there are times where it literally shuts off just 7-8 miles down 242.

Yeah can never get a good look at Jay but I always know it's snowing if you recognize the signature in the northern Champlain Valley.  And if upslope is happening further south on Mansfield, it's likely doing it up there too, even more so.

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Looks like the EURO bumped the moisture back up a bit with the light event tomorrow.  Biggest change was in Maine it seems.

Good event for S/C NE.  But that little bit of moisture up here should add to another little refresh.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-2958400.thumb.png.aba2c4aa822150561e90093e85db7fce.png

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the EURO bumped the moisture back up a bit with the light event tomorrow.  Biggest change was in Maine it seems.

Good event for S/C NE.  But that little bit of moisture up here should add to another little refresh.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-2958400.thumb.png.aba2c4aa822150561e90093e85db7fce.png

Sweet! Seems as if the mesos bump QPF up even more along the spine...as expected. It seems they do this no matter if orographic enhancement is in play or not (I realize it often is)

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1 hour ago, MRVexpat said:

Sweet! Seems as if the mesos bump QPF up even more along the spine...as expected. It seems they do this no matter if orographic enhancement is in play or not (I realize it often is)

Yeah, the mesos (especially 3km NAM) seem to often mistake "riming" conditions as actual precipitation.  It definitely jacks up the elevations that seem to interact with the cloud layer.  I remember reading something from NOAA about it several years ago as it does it out west a lot too.  I haven't noticed it from the HRRR or Canadian guidance though... it's mainly the 3km NAM that likes to over-do the QPF at the peaks because of this error.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

12z GFS was also a bit more than 06 or yesterday.  Maybe a repeat of yesterday instead of 1/2"?

We need to get you an epic snowy stretch soon. You're the wise elder of the group and keep your screw jobs in check, but it seems like you've done the worst relative to average over the last decade. You just don't melt like the rest of us. I'm on the tamarack snow campaign and I'm willing to riot into SNE to steal some for you.

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We need to get you an epic snowy stretch soon. You're the wise elder of the group and keep your screw jobs in check, but it seems like you've done the worst relative to average over the last decade. You just don't melt like the rest of us. I'm on the tamarack snow campaign and I'm willing to riot into SNE to steal some for you.

SNE is getting a little full of themselves right now---like they live in the TUG Hill, every event is a hit..ha.

Probably right about Tamarack. Too far removed to get a lot of direct hits from the recent coastal storm baroclinic zone shifting SE a bit over the past 10-15 years, and no bread and butter to rely on.   Although I don't really know that area too well and not sure what pattern is best? Guessing 07-08 was good up there?

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26 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

SNE is getting a little full of themselves right now---like they live in the TUG Hill, every event is a hit..ha.

Probably right about Tamarack. Too far removed to get a lot of direct hits from the recent coastal storm baroclinic zone shifting SE a bit over the past 10-15 years, and no bread and butter to rely on.   Although I don't really know that area too well and not sure what pattern is best? Guessing 07-08 was good up there?

For total snowfall and big pack, 07-08 was tops.  For big storms (in a good winter so 03-04 need not apply) 00-01 and 16-17 were best - each had 3 storms greater than 15" and rank 2-3 behind 07-08 for total snowfall.

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11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

It's not a great season when I have had the same amount of snow as Steve and Jerry down in SNE.

Looking forward to another nickel and dime snowfall tomorrow.  Yesterday I had 2",  maybe a bit more tomorrow?

....when I  only have 4" more than Bridgeport, CT. wth! After almost all of Jan going snowless, we finally get the moisture, but the blocking screws us and we get left the table scraps. If next week goes high and dry and nothing in sight worthwhile, I say write the rest of this winter off. Been terrible.

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Yeah must be lucky then to have had such constant snow on the ground this winter and snow in the air more days than not.

Wonder if this map is close?

94DEA3B3-7157-42C5-B8E8-FA50D7EA1FE3.jpeg.c4ba65e0085bb416a33e0b549b8bde7a.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah must be lucky then to have had such constant snow on the ground this winter and snow in the air more days than not.

Wonder if this map is close?

94DEA3B3-7157-42C5-B8E8-FA50D7EA1FE3.jpeg.c4ba65e0085bb416a33e0b549b8bde7a.jpeg

Can't be accurate. some of those darker reds are 72-96", no way. Worcester painted 48-72"? The map reports 48-72" in our hood, lol. I wish. More like 10-15".

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can't be accurate. some of those darker reds are 72-96", no way. Worcester painted 48-72"? The map reports 48-72" in our hood, lol. I wish. More like 10-15".

That's total seasonal snowfall. Not current depth.

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The nordic skiing again was very nice this morning and we have a very nice pack in metrowest and there is a certain giddiness about it all until I remind myself how similar packs have been decimated by a single warm, high qpf cutter.

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28 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

wow, I need to read better. Didn't see the "accumulated" part:facepalm:

Lol now *that* would be something if it was snow depth!  

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58 minutes ago, Angus said:

The nordic skiing again was very nice this morning and we have a very nice pack in metrowest and there is a certain giddiness about it all until I remind myself how similar packs have been decimated by a single warm, high qpf cutter.

You take your SNE Metrowest gloating right out of here mister!  We have NNE brethren who are suffering a deep trauma and don't any SNE antagonism!

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like the EURO bumped the moisture back up a bit with the light event tomorrow.

I just checked my point forecast and they’ve got something in the 2-4” or 3-5” range for this next system, so that would be very similar to the last one.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah must be lucky then to have had such constant snow on the ground this winter and snow in the air more days than not.

Wonder if this map is close?

94DEA3B3-7157-42C5-B8E8-FA50D7EA1FE3.jpeg.c4ba65e0085bb416a33e0b549b8bde7a.jpeg

That seems right on track around here – they have our site in what looks like that sliver of 96-120” darkest red shading splitting the gap between the 120-180” light mauve shading for the Bolton Mountain/Camel’s Hump areas that surround us on the spine.  If it’s on track, that light mauve would collapse into the valley here in another couple of storms.

I have to think many places in SNE are ahead of average on snowfall at this point, but you still have to get into at least SVT to get into that darkest red shading, so the typical snowfall gradient is certainly in place to some degree.

It doesn’t look like there’s sufficient data for the Jay Peak area though.  They’re reporting 194” of snowfall on the season, and even if official sources wouldn’t incorporate the resort’s summit area number, there should definitely be some of that light mauve up there like there is for parts of the spine from Mansfield southward.  There must not be any co-op or CoCoRaHS sites in the area to give them enough snowfall data?

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

This next system had been named Winter Storm Roland, and it was already underway as of observations time this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0

Snow Density: 2.9% H2O

Temperature: 8.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

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13 hours ago, PhineasC said:

The 18z Euro cut back again. The models are really paltry through the rest of the week in NNE. Could always be a surprise, of course.

Of course, as we know, “paltry” and “surprise” are all relative up here when it comes to snow.  It seems that any system that gets enough moisture up here for flakes, or even if the lakes just feed moisture in, often just keeps the snow coming until the mountains have wrung it all out.

Actually, some of the mesoscale models like the NAM have this system passing through today, another flare up of snowfall overnight into Wednesday, then a band of snow dropping south on Thursday, and that next potential system on Sunday.  We’ll see how it goes, but it looks active enough to keep some refreshes going for the slopes.

MountainMagic.jpg

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Snowing pretty good out there.  I was surprised with this one and the vis is staying pretty low at MVL.  Might be 2" soon?

Down to 0.50sm moderate snow and has been hanging around 1 mile vis past several hours.

 

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20 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Of course, as we know, “paltry” and “surprise” are all relative up here when it comes to snow.  It seems that any system that gets enough moisture up here for flakes, or even if the lakes just feed moisture in, often just keeps the snow coming until the mountains have wrung it all out.

 

Actually, some of the mesoscale models like the NAM have this system passing through today, another flare up of snowfall overnight into Wednesday, then a band of snow dropping south on Thursday, and that next potential system on Sunday.  We’ll see how it goes, but it looks active enough to keep some refreshes going for the slopes.

 

MountainMagic.jpg

Yep, getting refreshed here currently. Decent mod snow here for a while. 

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