wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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I got a text alert this morning that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Watch, so I guess it’s time to start checking out the BTV NWS maps.  On the alerts map, it’s Winter Storm Watches up and down the state of VT, and they also extend westward into parts of NYS.

On the Event Total Snowfall map, we’re in the 8-12” shading for the period through 7:00 A.M. Wednesday.  The point forecast here calls for 4-10” through Tuesday, but Tuesday night isn’t into the accumulations range yet, so we’ll have to see what’s expected there as we move forward.

31JAN21A.jpg

31JAN21B.jpg

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LOL. Just pulled into rest area to figure out my AM strategy at Wildcat. I thought the temperature profile was wrong on MW. I will hike with the dog up to Hermit Lake. @wxeyeNH- steam coming off middle of winnisquam this AM. All the bays on Winnipesaukee are frozen with lots of ice houses

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Question for you guys.  Here is the 12Z GFS qpf output.  It seems the GFS always way over does upslope and downslope regions.  Heck it gives me less than .25" for this storm.  The Euro is much more evened out with precip.  How much does the GFS over enhance?   Lots of have's and have nots.

Clear day going but cirrus slowly moving north on the southern sky.  The old time meteorologists use to call this a weather breeder day

gfs.jpg

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Seems like there is going to be some screw zones somewhere.  EEN down through Hippy's area seems to show up on a lot of models.  

Expecting a little less here too on the western slopes with raging E/NE winds.  Maybe make it up some when winds turn N/NW.  Super tricky forecast, going to be interesting to see this play out.

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7 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Seems like there is going to be some screw zones somewhere.  EEN down through Hippy's area seems to show up on a lot of models.  

Expecting a little less here too on the western slopes with raging E/NE winds.  Maybe make it up some when winds turn N/NW.  Super tricky forecast, going to be interesting to see this play out.

I figure I will race out ahead of the Northern Greens crew to a big lead on E/NE winds, and then they will rapidly catch up with a foot of fluff once the winds shift. It always seems to balance out somehow in the end.

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22 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question for you guys.  Here is the 12Z GFS qpf output.  It seems the GFS always way over does upslope and downslope regions.  Heck it gives me less than .25" for this storm.  The Euro is much more evened out with precip.  How much does the GFS over enhance?   Lots of have's and have nots.

Clear day going but cirrus slowly moving north on the southern sky.  The old time meteorologists use to call this a weather breeder day

gfs.jpg

Several models seem to overdo this. I have noticed they sometimes like to put the eastern upslope precip max further SE like over Jackson/Conway and have me in a sort of hole, but at verification the liquid max seems to always be up here. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I figure I will race out ahead of the Northern Greens crew to a big lead on E/NE winds, and then they will rapidly catch up with a foot of fluff once the winds shift. It always seems to balance out somehow in the end.

Yea,  most likely. Unless a mid level deform sets up over NVT down through NYS, which is possible. But yes, most of them will clean up on the uplsope no matter what.

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Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

Skinning Mammoth?

He should have great conditions by midweek. The eastern slopes should get hammered in this setup.

I just hope there are no mixing issues over there. Should be fine, but the Canadian models punch some warmth up near him, I assume that's bogus.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

He should have great conditions by midweek. The eastern slopes should get hammered in this setup.

I just hope there are no mixing issues over there. Should be fine, but the Canadian models punch some warmth up near him, I assume that's bogus.

Yep, that spot just gets firehosed off the Atlantic with easterly upslope. Just looking at a topo map you can see the long relatively flat terrain to the SE.

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17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Relatively speaking, we're getting porked here if nws is right. 8"? BFD7c955019bd2161128245dc31020746bc.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Based on the GYX distro, they seem to be hedging a lot about what happens after the first thump and the low occludes before firing again. They say totals may need to climb significantly if that second piece comes to fruition. It sounds to me like they are riding the GFS. 

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It was a beautiful day to be out. The first picture is looking towards PF with the Worcester Range between me and him. The second is looking east towards Phin and Alex. 

8F733A3A-620C-4C09-BC35-9A980AC9B92B.jpeg

9BE74B58-24DA-4BE1-AD31-FECD24095481.jpeg

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7 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Skinning Mammoth?

Oh man was he out there for that last Sierra storm?!

They have 90” on the ground at the Main Lodge base area and their 24-hr totals for Jan 27-29th were 40”, 34”, and 23” :lol:.

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I should add that the air was so crystal clear today that the Presidentials looked like you could reach out and touch them. If I had binoculars I probably could have seen Phin disrobing to each model run as it came in. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh man was he out there for that last Sierra storm?!

They have 90” on the ground at the Main Lodge base area and their 24-hr totals for Jan 27-29th were 40”, 34”, and 23” :lol:.

I was kidding, but who knows, maybe?

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Crazy good visibility today, the whole green mountain spine was visible from Gore Mountain, think I even saw the whites behind them but not sure if that is possible

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy good visibility today, the whole green mountain spine was visible from Gore Mountain, think I even saw the whites behind them but not sure if that is possible

Yeah you could see Mansfield from here like it’s around the corner 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I should add that the air was so crystal clear today that the Presidentials looked like you could reach out and touch them. If I had binoculars I probably could have seen Phin disrobing to each model run as it came in. 

I was out steaming lobsters at 10 degrees. You may have seen the steam wafting up!

White wine, lobsters, and tracking snowstorms. NNE life!

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43 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z Euro continues the trend of intensifying the storm in the Gulf of Maine.  Down now to 979mb.  Throws back alot of precip.  Kuchera clown maps are nuts.  Seems the jack is around Phin south to Eastern NH.  Over 2 feet.  I know they are over done but a nice storm.

I feel like the models are slowly pushing this entire thing NE. The Mid-Atlantic gang already busted. Next up is PHL and NYC. They probably aren't getting 2 feet.

It seems like this storm is evolving and the models are playing catch-up. 18z Euro moves the snowfall max to NH and Maine, out of SNE...

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I should add that the air was so crystal clear today that the Presidentials looked like you could reach out and touch them. If I had binoculars I probably could have seen Phin disrobing to each model run as it came in. 

For real. Was on Camel's Hump and you could basically make out the Cog on Washington and Superstar at Killington could be seen clear as day. Low 20s and not a breath of wind on the summit while it was 5 below in the lot while we were booting up lol. 

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