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Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins


paweather
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4 hours ago, canderson said:

Snowing in the south - maybe we’ll have another season like like last year where the south is more of a winter spot than SC Pa. 

Some locations between 1000 and 2000 feet in Middle and East Tennessee are reporting 2". Gatlinburg has several. The mountains are getting quite a bit.

Nashville has received 0.5", and I think we're done unless a passing snow shower is heavy enough. I'll take it, though. It's November, and half an inch is more than we've had all season for several winters I've been alive for. (Take a look at my sig, for instance.) 

Others in the hall of infamy include '03-04 and '04-05. Those produced 0.1" both years in Nashville. So little that I wonder how they even measured that.

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The ensembles are improving their snow look for the Second week of December. The amounts have slowly been improving the last few runs.

The overall look of the pattern looks good for chances. That’s all that we can ask for...it’s good to just be in the game instead of facing a shutout pattern. Hopefully we are tracking a specific threat in the not too distant future.

 

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9 hours ago, Superstorm said:

That weekend storm is close on GFS.


.

Yes, this weekend’s storm can’t be totally ruled out for CTP.

The 18z EPS mean puts us in the ballgame & the Control run actually gets the job done for CTP snow this weekend.
We would need a perfect track with an intensifying low that puts dynamics in play to get us cold enough to snow when the precip rates are good.

It will interesting to track this one over the next few days. If this doesn’t hit, at least we are at the beginning of our window of opportunity over the next 2 weeks.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@pasnownut

what do you think of our winter storm chances during the first half of December?

really havent looked since before thanksgiving.  Just getting back into the swing of things.  When I left things looked to be lining up, and just parsing over ens runs seems to say window is open for early/mid dec.  Will dive in in the coming days, but yeah i was happy to see blue blobs in the east, but after that quick view, only concern is that while tellies support the window being open, it didnt look like a sustained cold period, just seasonal to back n forth, with said chances.  Like you said, better than warm and boring.  We surely are due.

 

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