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September 2020 Discussion


moneypitmike
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58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Seemed like a lot of smoke around today.  Just looking at the visible satellite picture you could clearly see it.  Unrelated to the smoke over New England new fires have stated in  California again.  Smoke blowing SW.

The past two days were definitely hazy... couldn't see NH/the Whites from Mansfield on either day this weekend when sky cover normally would've allowed it.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Bullseye. Lock it in.

You're a bit North of the bulls eye on that but a good soaker nevertheless. I'm actually hoping it doesn't go overboard with rain. Last time we had a "drought" here it ended in the October 30 storm which dropped 6-7" of rain in one night and flooded us badly. 

 

And speaking of bulls eye, I struggled with figuring out my location on these maps at first but it's actually easy. Bretton Woods is right on the line between coos and grafton counties, just above the phallic thing that Carroll County points right at us through Crawford Notch. So you're just a bit North of it. 

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Last year we had a similar set-up with an unseasonably warm/humid air mass ahead of a slow moving front with a cold trough digging in behind it.  Halloween night had several inches fall in a short amount of time as a wave developed on the front.  There was localized flooding similar to Irene in the northern Greens from a similar set-up to what we have coming.  I was out of town and came back to  ~4" in the stratus.

This upcoming event will certainly rain hard for someone and possibly a sizeable axis... get that moisture rich humid air pumping northward and a forcing mechanism.  This looks like it could even be wetter, as last year's was a narrow 3-4.5" zone with a more widespread 0.5-2.0" and models are currently more impressive than that.  Someone is going to get smoked in a SW to NE axis that is modeled much further east currently than last year's.

Last year though had some very impressive kinematics...severe warnings and high wind products with the FROPA, iirc.

612826138_Halloween2019.thumb.jpg.c1568cbba4e5a207881743e92ea2a309.jpg

 

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I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

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11 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

I find the backyard West Branch responds more to rainfall rates, than overall total.  Obviously, antecedent conditions are a big factor... but rainfall rates are what can really make it go nuts.  There isn't nearly as much response as there is getting 3-4" in like 12 hours or less.  No matter how dry it's been, if a lot of rain falls in a short period of time, the mountain runoff that feeds these waterways is substantial. 

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57 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm actually curious to see how much the river here will rise compared to a similar amount of rain in a typical season. In the spring, an inch of rain makes it rise as much as 2 feet and sometimes more. Now the ground is very dry and wetlands are low, so I imagine it will take a lot more rain to result in a similar increase. 

dry hard ground will initially cause more runoff into streams than normal 

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48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully with a low near 70 and dews the same, those who are uninstalled can safely remove their sheets stuck inside bum crack.  

heh...slept fine here and only had the window open a crack. But I tend to be cold most of the time anyway. Heck I was out with the birds yesterday evening in a hoodie. I’m turning into weatherwiz. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

heh...slept fine here and only had the window open a crack. But I tend to be cold most of the time anyway. Heck I was out with the birds yesterday evening in a hoodie. I’m turning into weatherwiz. 

Now that is concerning. You should build a sauna where you are. Great spot for it. Or take a ride up the road where I was, in Sanborton. 

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