CIK62 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 72.5degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +2.2[71.4]. Should be +1.4[71.8] by the 23rd. 62* at 6am, clear. 68* by 10am, cirrus 69* about Noon. 65* at 2pm (but more sun now) 69* by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 While its been a warmer than average first two weeks of June, the highest departures have been over the Central US. The greatest warmth looks to remain to our west through much of this week. But a piece should come east by next weekend. Main question will be how much onshore flow we will have at the time of the warm up. All models indicating at least some SE flow at that time. EWR...+2.6 NYC....+2.2 LGA....+3.6 JFK....+1.1 BDR...+1.9 ISP.....+2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 52 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Up to 69 off a low of 50. High clouds moving in from the south. Overnight guidance continues overall onshore barrage through the week with Thu likely being the overcast day. Warm things starting on Friday but may take till Sat PM before flow fully goes SW. By Sunday we should see the heat (possibly strong heat) come in and continue into early the following week. Overall warm and possibly stormy from 6/25 on with more expansive very strong heat building into the PLains / GL perhaps cycling back into the East by months end and into the start of July. Ridge looks cnetered into the Plains so would imagine a stormier warm pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 23 hours ago, SACRUS said: Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 WAR signal showing up on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, forkyfork said: WAR signal showing up on the ensembles You wonder if sometime in the next 2 weeks the Plains ridge and WAR could merge for some impressive ridging and maybe record heat somewhere. There is a tendency for ridging to go north and easterly flow, at some point that will bring the WAR west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Another great day sun starting to win out over the clouds and a comfortable 72 / 51 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 12z Euro continuing the onshore flow into next weekend now. Big change from just a few runs ago. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2020 Author Share Posted June 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro continuing the onshore flow into next weekend now. Big change from just a few runs ago. New run Old run Not shocked to see this. The mid-longer range heat on the models have been more fantasy then reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 looking like another summer of high dewpoints and muted high temps yet still averaging above normal. probably lots of nearly saturated skinny cape days with flash flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not shocked to see this. The mid-longer range heat on the models have been more fantasy then reality. Yeah, just a continuation of the onshore flow pattern that dominated the second half of May. Looks Ike the models have been rushing warm ups when there is a cooler pool off the East Coast. Seems like the reverse of the models continuously underestimating the WAR in recent years when that record warm pool was out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2020 Author Share Posted June 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, just a continuation of the onshore flow pattern that dominated the second half of May. Looks Ike the models have been rushing warm ups when there is a cooler pool off the East Coast. Seems like the reverse of the models continuously underestimating the WAR in recent years when that record warm pool was out there. No different then mid-long range fantasy snowstorms in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: No different then mid-long range fantasy snowstorms in the winter. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. Late this week or this weekend, a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions will likely begin to evolve. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. The warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.221 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.991. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 16, 2020 Author Share Posted June 16, 2020 The last several runs of the GFS have been very active going forward and the 00z continues the theme. Temps will probably remain on the warmer side but nothing to hot with plenty of showers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 0.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[71.1]. Should be +1.4[71.8] by the 24th. 62* here at 6am., clear. 63* at 6:30am. 68* by 9am. 70* by 10:00am. Down to 67* by Noon. 69* by 2pm. GFS ENS has the second half of June at +2.0[75.0]. So we end up at 73 and about +2 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cancel the 90’s for this weekend. Cutoff just lingers too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cancel the 90’s for this weekend. Cutoff just lingers too long Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. Eastern Canada in the upper 90s while we are 20 degrees cooler. What the hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Down to 53 last night another good sleeping weather kinda evening. Up to 68. Clouds and showers about 80 - 100 miles south with strong NE flow keeping it dry and sunny. Overnight runs says the onshore flow doesnt want to go as they had been morphing to since monday ala - ate May. Overall onshore flow becoming more southerly this weekend as the cut off heads to PA rather than offshore. More steamy (perhaps stormy) than hot Fri - Sun . It does look to get closer to 90 by Mon - Wed with 850s expected to rise to 16-18.on a more sw flow. Stormier pattern looks to be taking shape by 6/25 as another strong ridge builds into the plains and moves into the GL, have to watch more ULL cutoff city 6/25 - 6/30 but month should end on a steamier note. Perhaps the WAR will build in by early July pushing the weakness in the northeast into Canda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Eastern Canada in the upper 90s while we are 20 degrees cooler. What the hell It’s the pattern. Called this Friday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. They took are snow, now they can have are heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 6 hours ago, uofmiami said: It’s the pattern. Called this Friday morning: 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: They took are snow, now they can have are heat! We have seen the subtropical high extending further to the north in recent years. Once the ridge axis gets north of 40N, our area gets southeast flow. July 2018 featured very humid onshore flow here. BTV went +5.4 with their first 80 degree minimum. LGA only had a 79 minimum and a +2.4 . The onshore flow in late May kept the all-time record highs to our north. So the next several days will feature the warmest temperatures staying north again with onshore flow here. July 2018 5-28-20 More of the same next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cooling off quickly in nw NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 70s in much of the area. Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. More clouds are likely Thursday and Friday just ahead of the start of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. Through June 16, just 15.37" rain has fallen in New York City. That is 6.96" below normal. As a result of what could be an emerging drought, there is just a 17% implied probability (1971-2019 base period) that New York City will reach 50.00" or more precipitation this year. The last time New York City had less than 50.00" precipitation was 2017 when 45.04" fell. In addition, there is a growing probability that New York City could receive less than 40.00" precipitation this year. The last time that happened was 2012, when just 38.51" precipitation was recorded. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.407 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 75/55 temp split today...cools off rapidly after sunset with an East wind, currently 64°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 78/54 here today, currently 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: 78/54 here today, currently 65. Same numbers here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.