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OKTWISTER

Severe Weather May 4th

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I haven’t been too impressed by the HRRRv4 this season. Mixed results, but also some bad stuff, like today:

It shows substantial 0-3km CAPE where mesoanalysis shows little to none. 

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While cloudiness is an issue in SWMO today, there is a pretty decent OFB pushing south of SGF currently. That may come into play later. 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 163  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS  
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS  
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI  
  EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL  
  1000 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL  
    EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  

 

  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE  
WATCH AREA.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW  
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE EVENING.  

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I'm in far NW AR and it's 77 degrees with a 72 dew point and it's been mostly clear since noon or earlier.  We got some pea sized hail and a lot of rain around 10AM as well.  Might be an interesting night.

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I definitely agree with Quincy. Low level lapse rates are pretty bad and clouds still lingering over a good portion of the highest risk area. Storms attempting to go up by Bartlesville but they are right on the front. Need some to form ahead of it and interact with an ofb. 

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Latest risk area was cut back quite a bit in SWMO. Right on cue we are seeing some clearing in far SWMO. If this clearing line can continue to move east/north east, swmo may still have a shot 

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9 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Initiation north of Tulsa has rapidly gone severe

Far from impressive

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Sitting in Miami OK right now, ample N/S/E/W road options... might meander down to Vinita soon. 
 

Tons of CAPE and SRH today, but a slight cap probably remains in place and LLVL lapse rates are bleh. Might have a storm go ballistic INVOF the boundary.

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8 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Is it the poor low level lapse rate or the 700 mb possible cap around 10 that is inhibiting convection at the moment?

Looking at some virtual sounding's id say it's the CAP around 800mb. Here's the 18z 3km NAM around Tulsa at 21z

 

1331633648_2020050418_NAMNST_003_35.94-95.95_severe_eff.thumb.png.4522b75ea92b8c195a607ae06862a30a.png

 

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2 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

Not sure why he tweeted this hodo.  It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
431 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 430 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHETOPA,  
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT   
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  BAXTER SPRINGS...                 COLUMBUS...  
  GALENA...                         LOWELL...  
  TREECE...                         NEUTRAL...  
  MELROSE...                        RIVERTON...  
  SHERWIN...                        FAULKNER...  
  CRESTLINE...                      LAWTON...  

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

Not sure why he tweeted this hodo.  It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF.

The WF continues to push NE, correct? 

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6 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The WF continues to push NE, correct? 

right, but the wind field will change completely as that happens.  So that profile has no bearing on the severe threat further south the warm sector.


I could probably find a thousand hodos a season north of WFs with 1000+ J/kg of 0-1 km SRH. 

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VWP from KINX is less than impressive in the lowest km.  Actually, there is more ESRH for left-movers, which probably explains why the left split moving toward Columbus KS is holding its own.

58eebbc5ba5994b961dcbe741abdb130.png

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Is anyone seeing rotation on the cell SW of Talala?  Looks like a fairly potent storm on reflectivity and looks decent on velocity as well.

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I would watch the storm near Miami. It is already rotating and may interact with an OFB in sw mo

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